Topic: . (Read 1523 times)
Thank you for this lead. I'm particularly interested to see if there is any relationship between intra-day volatility and price movements.
I have no numbers to offer however, I did sell the night before (Tuesday) the crash on Wednesday. My decision was based on the price starting to move sideways the week before, the huge run up Mon and Tue, and high volatility unlike anything I had seen before. I think it was a no brainer.
The recent troubles began with the 18 March 2013 FinCEN Guidance. Daily price movements—which I henceforth shall call 'returns'—were well behaved before then, and then began to go bonkers (not a technical term) immediately thereafter. If we are to believe the April Foolscoin conspiracy, then the conspirators either were very lucky with their timing or very crafty. They slid, like rioters, into an otherwise peaceful crowd masterfully.
The Cyprus news first hit the papers on March 17th. I read many articles at the time on Cyprus and Spain buying Bitcoin which could be seen by where money was transferring from. I'm sure the FinCEN Guidance announcement did help drive that that some however, I believe the run started a day before. I'm just curious on your thoughts on that?
Edit - it looks like as I was creating this post you replied and mentioned Cyprus. Glad to see you counted that in your analysis.
Have you looked into the possibility of chaotic attractors driven by the Bitcoin inflation cycle?
You, sir, have the most amazing avatar on the forums! Praise Bob!
Professor,
Please take a close look at the price patterns leading up to Bitcoin Bubble 1 back in 2011. They are similar. Here is my analysis.
Bitcoin Bubble 1 December 2011
The way up ...
0.498 January 31, 2011 -
0.997 April 15 2011 - doubling time 74 days
1.99 April 28, 2011 - doubling time 13 days
3.98 May 10, 2011 - doubling time 12 days
7.97 May 13, 2011 - doubling time 3 days
15.95 June 4, 2011 - doubling time 22 days
31.90 The high on Wednesday, June 8, 2011 - doubling time 4 days
The way down ...
31.90 The high on Wednesday, June 8, 2011
15.95 June 11, 2011 halving time 3 days
7.97 August 5, 2011 halving time 55 days
3.98 October 7, 2011 halving time 63 days
2.20 November 14, 2011 halving time 38 days
--------------------
Bitcoin Bubble 2
The way up ...
4.16 December 19, 2011: 8.31 July 16, 2012
8.31 July 16, 2012 - doubling time 210 days
16.62 January 21, 2013 - doubling time 189 days
33.25 March 1, 2013 - doubling time 59 days
66.50 March 25, 2013 - doubling time 24 days
133.00 April 3, 2013 - doubling time 9 days
266.00 Wednesday, April 10, 2013 - doubling time 7 days
Please take a close look at the price patterns leading up to Bitcoin Bubble 1 back in 2011. They are similar. Here is my analysis.
Bitcoin Bubble 1 December 2011
The way up ...
0.498 January 31, 2011 -
0.997 April 15 2011 - doubling time 74 days
1.99 April 28, 2011 - doubling time 13 days
3.98 May 10, 2011 - doubling time 12 days
7.97 May 13, 2011 - doubling time 3 days
15.95 June 4, 2011 - doubling time 22 days
31.90 The high on Wednesday, June 8, 2011 - doubling time 4 days
The way down ...
31.90 The high on Wednesday, June 8, 2011
15.95 June 11, 2011 halving time 3 days
7.97 August 5, 2011 halving time 55 days
3.98 October 7, 2011 halving time 63 days
2.20 November 14, 2011 halving time 38 days
--------------------
Bitcoin Bubble 2
The way up ...
4.16 December 19, 2011: 8.31 July 16, 2012
8.31 July 16, 2012 - doubling time 210 days
16.62 January 21, 2013 - doubling time 189 days
33.25 March 1, 2013 - doubling time 59 days
66.50 March 25, 2013 - doubling time 24 days
133.00 April 3, 2013 - doubling time 9 days
266.00 Wednesday, April 10, 2013 - doubling time 7 days
The first thing I see that is amiss is that they showed up to the party 11 days late...
Sorry but this kind of conspiracy rubbish is just that... rubbish. The market corrected itself; nothing more to read into it.
If there was a conspiracy to manipulate the market they wouldn't posted it in public beforehand for the world to see; they would communicate over tormail with PGP. The pastebin was made by some bearish trolls who didn't hold any BTC and wanted to buy in before the price ran away from them.
Sorry but this kind of conspiracy rubbish is just that... rubbish. The market corrected itself; nothing more to read into it.
If there was a conspiracy to manipulate the market they wouldn't posted it in public beforehand for the world to see; they would communicate over tormail with PGP. The pastebin was made by some bearish trolls who didn't hold any BTC and wanted to buy in before the price ran away from them.
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