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legendary
Activity: 1372
Merit: 1000
.
April 23, 2013, 01:03:20 AM
#19
Look, for instance, at the relationship between silver and gold. Since they have become so securitized they seldom behave independently silver has been relegated to a beta trade for gold since there is a rather sticky ratio between them. Since they are correlated in this way they share similar risks, demand for one often results in a price move for the other even if it is not directly related.
It seems to me Gold and silver are sticky because they are in effect the same thing a "precious metal" used as an investment.

In the US when Silver was used instead of gold its value was largely determined by the economy, and it was used in place of gold or as a cheaper substitute, I would guess, its original primary value came from its utilitarian applications and only over time did substitutes take its place. I would understand that only after the normalising of global economies and after the introduction of fiat did gold and silver become sticky, I imagine when on the gold standard, a state could still inflate the money supply by introducing silver coins, independent of gold reserves.  

Then, look at the once traditional relationship between bonds and stocks, where they shared a negative correlation, as one goes up the other would go down, depending on what part of the business cycle we are in.
An economy that has fully recovered from the Keynesian business cycles and market mismatched cycles of the free banking era, will not need an offset investment vehicle like stocks and bonds to preserve wealth.  So we don't need the offset investment, the economy is the offset investment. (the volitility is an adoption problem)

When there is an accelerated growth cycle in the economy, it needs consumer prises to deflate for effective self regulation, and likewise if investment in the economy is needed inflation is the most appropriate stimulus.
The only problem I see with the adoption of Bitcoin is deflation in the Bitconomy is in effect inflation in the adoption cycle.  It seems to me this is "the paradox of thrift" at work and the result is volatility.  

One proposal I have seen that could help to enforce such a separation is the concept of a proof of stake, providing a separate market for tokens that basically give you a right to mine

I like the stake to mine idea too this could also work to prevent a brute force attack on the network, and would also function as a futures market for mining, when the price goes too quickly futures are sold to mine the new coins, stabilising the market, I think the creative challenge is to build it into a single system so you don't have 2 markets. It may also be possible to tie the proof of stake "futures , or options" creation to the difficulty to regulate distribution. A brain fart - could proof of stake option be created similarly to mining but for the service of providing an up-to-date blockchain nodes, (regulated by disk space) - created and sold by all users while coins are created by miners (regulated by CPU),

Another sink could be between Bitocoin and alts with different inflation schedules, providing a kind of slow moving inrease/decrease in correlation. To see how this would work, think of how alts with identical inflation schedules would be correlated, from there it is not such a stretch to see how instruments with different inflation schedules would interact to break up that correlation.  

You have articulated my exact thought, I don't like the idea of messing with a Bitcoin fork though, I see Bitcoin as the feature rich development platform with all the benefits and the alt coin with different inflation schedules, lagging in feature years behind, and during the vast deflation periods in the Bitcoin Economy people may switch to the new system without the disadvantage of being a late adopter. 20 or 50+ years down the line the 2 system may eventually become sticky and run in parallel, if thing went wrong the market could favour one over the other.
donator
Activity: 1736
Merit: 1014
Let's talk governance, lipstick, and pigs.
April 22, 2013, 04:16:17 PM
#18
Q: How much money can dance on the currency of a transaction?
A: It's abstractions all the way down.
donator
Activity: 994
Merit: 1000
April 22, 2013, 03:53:57 PM
#17
How can Bitcoin provide a store of value while being so volatile?
In the longterm, bitcoin prices will reflect the cost of capital. It thus is the very notion of money.

Don't confuse money with currency. A currency is an abstraction of money, which usually serves a political agenda. One of those is stable prices for good/services.
donator
Activity: 1736
Merit: 1014
Let's talk governance, lipstick, and pigs.
April 22, 2013, 03:45:06 PM
#16
Lower volatility means lower volume, and generally, less liquidity. Eventually this will lead to a drop in the exchange rate. Once the price drop starts to pick up a positive feedback component volatility will increase and the price will eventually climb.

Conversely, As price climbs due to a protracted buy-in, volatility will increase, once this picks up a significant positive feedback component price becomes unsustainable it drops again.

This is the way of Bitcoin.

Solution is $100,000 USD/BTC. Or did I miss something  :-)
Followed by a crash down to $123.30 ;-)
legendary
Activity: 1414
Merit: 1000
April 22, 2013, 03:43:01 PM
#15
Lower volatility means lower volume, and generally, less liquidity. Eventually this will lead to a drop in the exchange rate. Once the price drop starts to pick up a positive feedback component volatility will increase and the price will eventually climb.

Conversely, As price climbs due to a protracted buy-in, volatility will increase, once this picks up a significant positive feedback component price becomes unsustainable it drops again.

This is the way of Bitcoin.

Solution is $100,000 USD/BTC. Or did I miss something  :-)
donator
Activity: 1736
Merit: 1014
Let's talk governance, lipstick, and pigs.
April 22, 2013, 03:36:31 PM
#14
Lower volatility means lower volume, and generally, less liquidity. Eventually this will lead to a drop in the exchange rate. Once the price drop starts to pick up a positive feedback component volatility will increase and the price will eventually climb.

Conversely, As price climbs due to a protracted buy-in, volatility will increase, once this picks up a significant positive feedback component price becomes unsustainable it drops again.

This is the way of Bitcoin.
The price is psychological. With fiat, there are printing presses to meet the positive feedback and stabilize price. Bitcoin doesn't have a reactive system to meet this psychological factor...yet.
legendary
Activity: 1414
Merit: 1000
HODL OR DIE
April 20, 2013, 10:57:13 AM
#13
The nature of the network adds to volatility. If the price rises, difficulty follows and the network becomes more secure which adds value. The downside is similar, when the price drops the marginal miners are forced to leave the the network, and the network becomes less secure, reducing value. It's sort of like a teeter-totter where the buy/sell forces are on one side or the other, never in the middle. Mr George Soros refers to this in markets as reflexivity.
newbie
Activity: 56
Merit: 0
April 20, 2013, 09:24:31 AM
#12
But I cannot spend JCPenny stock on websites.

This is true, Bitcoin might not be Gold, it might not be the USD, it might not be Litecoin. What is it? Something new and wonderful called Bitcoin.

They change in value, they can be spent if someone else wants one, they are awesome and fun.

If Bitcoin HAS to become as stable as the USD before the world accepts it, then maybe its not best for the world to accept it.

Fun like a roller coaster.  As long as you don't mind the hair-raising ups and downs, and the ear-splitting screams, and the projectile vomiting....  Grin
donator
Activity: 1736
Merit: 1014
Let's talk governance, lipstick, and pigs.
April 20, 2013, 09:22:21 AM
#11
Hydrocarbons are too volatile to be used for the building blocks for life. It's a wonder we don't all just explode! Or maybe volatility is what makes life possible. Viva le volatility!
full member
Activity: 224
Merit: 100
One bitcoin to rule them all!
April 20, 2013, 09:18:01 AM
#10
Although it may be a bit bonkers, it makes perfect sense.

With high volatility, the penny-stock crowd should be all over Bitcoins.

With many small time investors comes volume that is diversified.

With high volatility comes high turnaround

With high turnaround and fast transactions - it can be used as an instrument for cheap currency-exchange.
-This needs a little tweaking though, but if it becomes just as easy to get in/out with most currencies, it should level out.
Imagine someone in Burkina Faso with some West African Franc who want to buy some stuff from Guatemala that is priced in Quetzal. It can be done in many ways, but there is always the fees. But if those money can be sent trough BTC, there should hardly be any fees and not take longer than about half an hour. The price of the BTC would be irrelevant as it's just a means of transaction.

Currency converting would in it's own right give more volume, and increase BTC's attractiveness.

IOW - Volatility is the new stability.
sr. member
Activity: 350
Merit: 250
"Don't go in the trollbox, trollbox, trollbox"
April 18, 2013, 11:41:43 AM
#9
volatility is a daytrader's wet dream

Exactly why it is the vital life blood of a Bitcoin economy. Traders can not leave it alone, and provide much of the liquidity the ecosystem needs to thrive.

Spot on.

And what you say makes sense OP.
legendary
Activity: 2212
Merit: 1008
April 18, 2013, 02:26:45 AM
#8
volatility is a daytrader's wet dream
legendary
Activity: 3472
Merit: 4801
April 18, 2013, 01:48:55 AM
#7
- snip -
it is the velocity of money that ultimately drives the exchange rate,
- snip -
Generally, over the long term the rate will be higher as the velocity of money is higher.
- snip -

The velocity of "what"?  I thought you said bitcoin is not money.  How can it have a velocity of money then?
legendary
Activity: 1904
Merit: 1002
April 18, 2013, 01:40:45 AM
#6
Through unit cost averaging volatility goes out the door.

That's because cost averaging adds liquidity.  The reward is stability from your POV, and your profits/losses can tell you what a fair price is for the time period you traded.  That's exactly what a spread bot does.  It used to be what scalpers in the pits did, when such a breed still existed.

Over time you could potentially trade Bitcoin to have just about any value you wish, even mix high/low volatility periods for just about any risk profile, though it would probably be easier with a mix of instruments.

The rally will really start when we see 10% per year dividend bitcoin funds.
legendary
Activity: 1176
Merit: 1015
April 18, 2013, 01:32:46 AM
#5
But I cannot spend JCPenny stock on websites.

This is true, Bitcoin might not be Gold, it might not be the USD, it might not be Litecoin. What is it? Something new and wonderful called Bitcoin.

They change in value, they can be spent if someone else wants one, they are awesome and fun.

If Bitcoin HAS to become as stable as the USD before the world accepts it, then maybe its not best for the world to accept it.
legendary
Activity: 1904
Merit: 1002
April 18, 2013, 01:31:45 AM
#4
Through unit cost averaging volatility goes out the door.

That's because cost averaging adds liquidity.  The reward is stability from your POV, and your profits/losses can tell you what a fair price is for the time period you traded.  That's exactly what a spread bot does.  It used to be what scalpers in the pits did, when such a breed still existed.
legendary
Activity: 3598
Merit: 2386
Viva Ut Vivas
April 18, 2013, 01:30:07 AM
#3
Through unit cost averaging volatility goes out the door.

Over a long enough time period a randomly varying exchange rate could be treated that way in some accounting systems, but it is only relevant to those systems. Sure, you could also DCA JCPenny.

But I cannot spend JCPenny stock on websites.
legendary
Activity: 3598
Merit: 2386
Viva Ut Vivas
April 18, 2013, 01:19:52 AM
#2
Through unit cost averaging volatility goes out the door.
jr. member
Activity: 57
Merit: 10
April 18, 2013, 01:16:44 AM
#1
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