Topic: . (Read 2318 times)

google translate ...

Sorry to be a grammar nazi, I just presumed you were a native English speaker (mother-tongue).
It would be fun.
(Sometimes even the British parents name their boys Vladimir.)

This. There is a non negligible amount of people who bought BTC at Gox to withdraw their money quickly. 30% of the BTC on Gox's order book vanished just after the Dwolla situation (aprox. BTC50k said bye bye to Gox shortly after the Dwolla email).

IMO fiat will pour out too, but much slower. And still, there are a lot of traders with verified/trusted status on Gox which may not be confident enough to move their funds fast to another exchange with smaller liquidity and shorter history on the market.

Kinda of "wait and see" situation, unfortunately infrastructure it's still unacceptably weak, mid term ending Gox absolute domination is good and necessary, but short term competitors are not solid and well established enough to absorb Gox's volume.

Geez, check the depth, on Gox we still have x20 the amount of fiat compared to Bitstamp.

I think if you want to 'Get out of Gox' right now, you're paying a premium to buy BTC... as yeah, it's been very hard to sell at gox prices for a week now on other exchanges.... like pulling teeth.

become, became, become

I guess it is your mother tongue, right?

  

I make money when the prices are different. You can buy up all of the coins on mtgox and sell them on bitstamp.

It would be a lot easier if the withdrawals and deposits were all instant and fees didn't exist.

Apparently, from current price data.
I think so to #2, and probably for #3.

I probably won't use Gox anymore personally, just because I can no longer withdraw fiat without having to do a wire, and $25 is quite a bit of money to me.

where
https://bitcoinity.org/markets/list?currency=ALL&span=24h

This is good news 

First comes trading volume, then order book size, then they lose dominance.

Arbitrage simply isn't as frictionless as you think it is, otherwise all exchange prices would be the same. The only true frictionless aspect is the movement of bitcoins from one exchange to another. Arbitrage involves many other steps and hidden costs.

I just did some calculations for arbitrage between Gox and Bitstamp. I am based in asia and do not use USD as my home currency

Wire transfer fees to bitstamp charged by my bank - about 25USD
Exchange rate charged by bank is a good 1.5% above market rates, their cut-throat margin, to get your currency to USD
Bitstamp also charges a 0.1% (min 10USD) to receive your wire transfer

So to get your money on bitstamp you're already out at least 35 USD and 1.5% of your seed money

You buy the bitcoins, pay 0.5% exchange fees
Send to Gox, pay the other 0.5%

Now it's 35US and 2.5%..at the very least

Finally you ask Gox to wire the money back
Gox charges some amount to wire you the money, I forget the amount, maybe around 30USD, maybe more. Not to mention it takes them weeks to wire you the money.


60USD and 2.5%

The money hits my home account and I get docked another 1.5% off market rates to change the USD back to home currency.
So it comes to about 60USD and 4% of seed money eaten up in fees

This not including any money skimmed by the bloodsucking intermediary banks during the wire transfer, since you cover all charges for your wire transfer from start point to end...in both directions.

And the significant time money gets tied up with the exchanges means opportunity cost, and most importantly, a high level of counterparty risk, since arbitragers will need to use large sums to make the whole thing worthwhile, tied up by being parked on an exchange waiting for the critical price differential to occur, or flying around in transfer from one vampire intermediary to the next.

I also have not included the slippage losses from trading large amounts on small exchanges (like all BTC exchanges other than Gox at the moment)

What I'm trying to get at is that for most people, arbitrage is not viable at current price differentials between exchanges. My personal guess is that as long as all prices stay within about 5-7% of each other, there will be little to no arbitrage taking place and price differentials will happily exist with no one trying to even out the situation.

+1
And European users do not want MtGox EUR either with their 36 days average withdrawal delay and (1%+0.24EUR) fee.

Or... that the fiat that would have travelled the dwolla route is now re-routing.

Nonsense, volatility is actually reduced by an increase in volume.
The difference in price that is observed is due to the fact that the MTGUSD is declining in value after the US-seizure ongoing shitstorm.

I wouldn't say they are irrelevant yet, but they are quickly becoming so. 

Others have mentioned that there are often price differences between other exchanges and Gox, but as someone who has been doing arbitrage for the last 2 years, I can say that I've never seen the prices this out of whack for this long between Gox and the others.

It is interesting to note that the relative percentage of trades happening at Gox is lower now than at any time that I can remember.  They are less than 50% of total trade volume, and have been for a few days now (at least 2, that I have noticed).  

This is the fair market value most often defined not only by trade volume, but how much it costs to get the USD in to your broker's account too. MtGox afaik is one of the cheapest to pay into which is why its trade prices are more expensive. Its common knowledge that btc-e is very expensive to pay into and withdraw from which is why they are always slightly cheaper.

There is potential for a lot of arbitrage for anyone who's up for it.

There have always been substantial differences in the rate at mt.gox and other exchanges. It is not at all new or uncommon for this difference to be $10 or more.

I suspect it is only because of the recent dwolla/mtgox news that many people start noticing it and speculating about the reasons.

I think the reason now and before is just that arbitrage trading (via SEPA) is very slow, and with the fees involved the profits are not that great unless you trade large volumes. So it requires one to maintain significant sums at several exchanges to make it worthwhile.

What Malawi said, due to the high volume of trade on Mtgox the price fluctuations will be faster and more volatile.

Where as the smaller exchanges will react slower to any price movements, possibly missing them all together.

It means that it's more popular to buy coins at MtGox.

.