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In the current situation, what I really cannot understand (and what frightens me), is why the hell MtGox itself does not arbitrage against e.g. BitStamp? Being MtGox, you can surely skip lengthy queues and move fiat to from MtGox native bank to BitStamp bank .. and voila ..

This $10 difference indicates that this process does not work .. and this is alarming for me.

If this is true there will be a job for a travelling bitcoin salesman who goes between places buying low and selling high.

More like $1000 $900. The point being that during peak volume periods like the $266 peak, local price movements will most likely outstrip the capacity of arb networks knitting together the various exchanges.

But, upon observing recent events, I am going to have to move up my timetable for an expectation of such a bifurcation. It will not happen all at once, and it will be more-or-less regional. As volumes of trade in native currencies reach a friction point the exchange rate will begin to drift away, and eventually more-or-less decouple from larger markets. While there may be a long term correlation between these local Bitcoin markets the short term correlations will begin to break down. And each will have its characteristic response to events such as block reward halving. This difference will be most pronounced as block reward halving gets priced in because that is when the highest exchange volumes will occur. So with each halving valuation will drift farther apart and drive decorrelation.  Besides geographic regions there will likely even be regions with boundaries dictated by other factors. Such as between purely crypto markets and those which deal primarily in exchange with native, government issued currencies.

I won't be shocked by a $100 difference.

If it's possible to arb the thing, the gap will be 'insignificant'.  I recall BTC-E used to be a 10% discount to MtGox, I was arbing it like crazy through OKPay.  The difference eventually is about 4%.  After OKPay, AurumXchange and all those guys disappear, gap increase again.  Barring places where moving currency is potentially difficult because of regulation (China) or expensive because of fees, I don't think the prices will diverge much.

Currently, there are disconnect because of difficulty with most exchanges when dealing with fiat.

Based on an energetic/entropic difference, either organic or imposed.

We talk about arb channels and how they will close once there is enough volume. We talk about Gox expiring as its market share erodes. But for now we really have two very different kind of agents sharing a top spot. It is not as though Bitstamp is a homogeneous version of Gox nipping at its heels. No, the account holders on Bitstamp are there because they have made some very different decisions from those still on Gox. The makeup is different, and far beyond the amount of volume available for arbitrage is a mutually heterodox view of the market.

In my view we are already seeing a mini version of the kind of ultimate market bifurcation that I have reasoned previously to be inevitable. And really, Bitcoin does not care, it still works just fine. It will work just as well in parts of the world where the weather is hot and electricity is expensive as it will where the weather is cool and electricity is cheap. But the market does not look the same to someone who is primarily a miner and someone else who is primarily a consumer. And there is no real reason, other than a deeply entrenched view of market economics, that Bitcoin should have to be valued the same across these markets. Again, different kinds of people making different decisions, not just a small handful of traders agreeing on a value for a homogeneous global market.

But, upon observing recent events, I am going to have to move up my timetable for an expectation of such a bifurcation. It will not happen all at once, and it will be more-or-less regional. As volumes of trade in native currencies reach a friction point the exchange rate will begin to drift away, and eventually more-or-less decouple from larger markets. While there may be a long term correlation between these local Bitcoin markets the short term correlations will begin to break down. And each will have its characteristic response to events such as block reward halving. This difference will be most pronounced as block reward halving gets priced in because that is when the highest exchange volumes will occur. So with each halving valuation will drift farther apart and drive decorrelation.  Besides geographic regions there will likely even be regions with boundaries dictated by other factors. Such as between purely crypto markets and those which deal primarily in exchange with native, government issued currencies.

So, when trying to figure out how to analyse the market for price speculation the picture becomes increasingly complex. My expectation is that a market index will evolve; realy, several market indexes, which will communicate what the larger correlations are. And of course there will be derivative instruments, both 'conventional' and crypto.