1 week = 127 
little bit early but it sounds about right. 
Topic: . (Read 6073 times)
I disagree. Here is my prediction for the 3rd October: the start of a large drop in price, down to about 115$.
But this could start 1 or 2 days sooner, if a BTC whale understands where he is and dumps.
And I expect it to be turbulent, so the 115$ is just a median, could be anywhere between 110$ and 120$.
But this could start 1 or 2 days sooner, if a BTC whale understands where he is and dumps.
And I expect it to be turbulent, so the 115$ is just a median, could be anywhere between 110$ and 120$.
Turns out I was kind of right by accident (the SR news). Due to somewhat low volume, the drop should have started
on the 5th, 2 days later than I predicted, and although I expected it to be turbulent, I didn't imagine it would be that turbulent.
Good call man! SR probably has little to do with it.
I disagree. Here is my prediction for the 3rd October: the start of a large drop in price, down to about 115$.
But this could start 1 or 2 days sooner, if a BTC whale understands where he is and dumps.
And I expect it to be turbulent, so the 115$ is just a median, could be anywhere between 110$ and 120$.
But this could start 1 or 2 days sooner, if a BTC whale understands where he is and dumps.
And I expect it to be turbulent, so the 115$ is just a median, could be anywhere between 110$ and 120$.
Turns out I was kind of right by accident (the SR news). Due to somewhat low volume, the drop should have started
on the 5th, 2 days later than I predicted, and although I expected it to be turbulent, I didn't imagine it would be that turbulent.
I may have an explanation for the failure of Chodpaba's prediction of the 22nd September.
The price drop that started on the 19th should have gone lower than 131$, but it didn't because
the second stage of the drop was met with an increase in money flow. Ironically, the rebound that
should have happened on the 22nd was met with a drop in money flow, so they both were flattened.
This made EW sub-sub-wave recognition impossible for me in those days, and I suspect Chodpaba's
results were distorted (to some extent) for the same reason.
I'd like to add that from the 22th we are kind of repeating the evolution from the 7th, only with flattened
price oscillation amplitudes and starting from a higher price point. And that in comparison with the bear
market of June, the sub-waves now take about 3 times longer, so more patience is needed.
The price drop that started on the 19th should have gone lower than 131$, but it didn't because
the second stage of the drop was met with an increase in money flow. Ironically, the rebound that
should have happened on the 22nd was met with a drop in money flow, so they both were flattened.
This made EW sub-sub-wave recognition impossible for me in those days, and I suspect Chodpaba's
results were distorted (to some extent) for the same reason.
I'd like to add that from the 22th we are kind of repeating the evolution from the 7th, only with flattened
price oscillation amplitudes and starting from a higher price point. And that in comparison with the bear
market of June, the sub-waves now take about 3 times longer, so more patience is needed.
Code:
Daily, GMT VWA, Gox
Saturday, September 21, 2013 $133.23
Sunday, September 22, 2013 $132.30
Monday, September 23, 2013 $131.48
Tuesday, September 24, 2013 $130.66
Wednesday, September 25, 2013 $130.91
Thursday, September 26, 2013 $130.43
Friday, September 27, 2013 $130.26
Saturday, September 21, 2013 $133.23
Sunday, September 22, 2013 $132.30
Monday, September 23, 2013 $131.48
Tuesday, September 24, 2013 $130.66
Wednesday, September 25, 2013 $130.91
Thursday, September 26, 2013 $130.43
Friday, September 27, 2013 $130.26
trend has been almost exactly opposite...
at least get the damn direction right
lol
From now on, I will be doing the opposite...
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=cKUvKE3bQlY
I see everyone wants to play the smaller game. Perhaps this was to be expected with the new money—impatience
don't mind us we're just trolling you for getting it wrong
Code:
Daily, GMT VWA, Gox
Saturday, September 21, 2013 $133.23
Sunday, September 22, 2013 $132.30
Monday, September 23, 2013 $131.48
Tuesday, September 24, 2013 $130.66
Wednesday, September 25, 2013 $130.91
Thursday, September 26, 2013 $130.43
Friday, September 27, 2013 $130.26
Saturday, September 21, 2013 $133.23
Sunday, September 22, 2013 $132.30
Monday, September 23, 2013 $131.48
Tuesday, September 24, 2013 $130.66
Wednesday, September 25, 2013 $130.91
Thursday, September 26, 2013 $130.43
Friday, September 27, 2013 $130.26
trend has been almost exactly opposite...
at least get the damn direction right
lol
From now on, I will be doing the opposite...
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=cKUvKE3bQlY
Code:
Daily, GMT VWA, Gox
Saturday, September 21, 2013 $133.23
Sunday, September 22, 2013 $132.30
Monday, September 23, 2013 $131.48
Tuesday, September 24, 2013 $130.66
Wednesday, September 25, 2013 $130.91
Thursday, September 26, 2013 $130.43
Friday, September 27, 2013 $130.26
Saturday, September 21, 2013 $133.23
Sunday, September 22, 2013 $132.30
Monday, September 23, 2013 $131.48
Tuesday, September 24, 2013 $130.66
Wednesday, September 25, 2013 $130.91
Thursday, September 26, 2013 $130.43
Friday, September 27, 2013 $130.26
trend has been almost exactly opposite...
at least get the damn direction right
I disagree. Here is my prediction for the 3rd October: the start of a large drop in price, down to about 115$.
But this could start 1 or 2 days sooner, if a BTC whale understands where he is and dumps.
And I expect it to be turbulent, so the 115$ is just a median, could be anywhere between 110$ and 120$.
But this could start 1 or 2 days sooner, if a BTC whale understands where he is and dumps.
And I expect it to be turbulent, so the 115$ is just a median, could be anywhere between 110$ and 120$.
Code:
Gox Daily, GMT High Low VWA
Monday, September 23, 2013 $135.30 $130.03 $132.59
Tuesday, September 24, 2013 $134.53 $129.54 $131.84
Wednesday, September 25, 2013 $133.85 $128.66 $131.12
Thursday, September 26, 2013 $133.14 $127.88 $130.37
Friday, September 27, 2013 $132.69 $126.97 $129.74
Saturday, September 28, 2013 $132.55 $125.67 $129.06
Sunday, September 29, 2013 $131.91 $125.47 $128.39
Monday, September 23, 2013 $135.30 $130.03 $132.59
Tuesday, September 24, 2013 $134.53 $129.54 $131.84
Wednesday, September 25, 2013 $133.85 $128.66 $131.12
Thursday, September 26, 2013 $133.14 $127.88 $130.37
Friday, September 27, 2013 $132.69 $126.97 $129.74
Saturday, September 28, 2013 $132.55 $125.67 $129.06
Sunday, September 29, 2013 $131.91 $125.47 $128.39
That didn't go well, 10$ difference in the peak. Did you find there a lesson to learn?
For me, the lesson is "don't underestimate the panic buyers".
Or, more seriously, even if we are in bear market since the 5th September, bullish sentiment is still strong.
Volume weighted average for one day, one week from today. (Gox, GMT)
I'll start.
Monday, September 23, 2013 $127.21
I'll start.
Monday, September 23, 2013 $127.21
Fun!
I'll have to give a bit of a range though...
Monday, September 23, 2013: 134$ to 146$
Not too shabby for a week out.
Thanks, but not that impressive since I gave a big range.
Also, the "reversal", or at least the further drop, that your method predicted more or less happened, good job. Does that mean you will stop posting the results of it soon, hehehe
So your system actually says the market was considerably more bearish in this last 24 hours, huh? [Low reduced by $2.50]
Its weird, because to me its looking bullish. But, this is emotion
Also, there has been little buying or selling. Although I think selling volume is slightly higher than buying.
Its weird, because to me its looking bullish. But, this is emotion
Also, there has been little buying or selling. Although I think selling volume is slightly higher than buying.
I think a prediction with a $5 dollar range is more useful, as nobody in the world can predict the value up to a single dollarcent at a certain point in time. It would just be a coincidence. Here's my predicted range in a week from now:
Saturday, September 28th, 2013 --> $137 - $142
Saturday, September 28th, 2013 --> $137 - $142
This isn't a sports book.
Anyways, it would be silly to trade on these calls, or to trade on such a short time frame. That is not how I use these numbers.
These are my canary. They represent a median statistical outcome based on a sampling what has happened in the not too distant past, What matters is the amount of error, and if the error is consistently high or low. It gives me an indication of the amount of forcing the market system is undergoing, and in what direction.
But feel free to make your calls however you wish.
Does: forcing = manipulation?
I think a prediction with a $5 dollar range is more useful, as nobody in the world can predict the value up to a single dollarcent at a certain point in time. It would just be a coincidence. Here's my predicted range in a week from now:
Saturday, September 28th, 2013 --> $137 - $142
Saturday, September 28th, 2013 --> $137 - $142
At last, some movement! The bid sum / ask sum ratio points to 132$, but if volume does not ramp up the price may not drop so much.
If however volume rises, then it's possible to overshoot, like the 5th September, and drop towards 120$.
PS. WOW! It's going down! The whales flinched! WHEEE!
PS2. The bid sum / ask sum ratio now points to 124$, because the drop worsened it.
PS3. Oh crap! Blockchained is down, I'm half blind...
If however volume rises, then it's possible to overshoot, like the 5th September, and drop towards 120$.
PS. WOW! It's going down! The whales flinched! WHEEE!
PS2. The bid sum / ask sum ratio now points to 124$, because the drop worsened it.
PS3. Oh crap! Blockchained is down, I'm half blind...
Monday, September 23, 2013 $127.21
Tuesday, September 24, 2013 $129.43
I think I liked your other indicator better. But I'll say that much: if the (short term) reversal that would be needed to reach your numbers takes place over the weekend, I'll give your new method all the praise it deserves. I don't see any signs for that happening, but then again, I usually only pick up trends once they started forming, while you seem to attempt to look ahead a bit more.
what reversal are you speaking about?
current mtgox price: 140 $.
so, instead of a drop to 127 $, we will have it to 129. nothing's changed actually.
I'll paraphrase: we're at 140 now. Going back to either 127 or 129 within the next few days would be a (at least minor) reversal - or if you prefer, call it retraction. And I don't see any signs pointing towards such a reversal. If at all, I see the uptrend becoming stronger again (main point: price and order book development on bitstamp)
I think he's referring to this thread: https://bitcointalksearch.org/topic/--269944
My call: $110 one week from today (on Bitstamp)
My call: $110 one week from today (on Bitstamp)
Monday, September 23, 2013 $127.21
Tuesday, September 24, 2013 $129.43
I think I liked your other indicator better. But I'll say that much: if the (short term) reversal that would be needed to reach your numbers takes place over the weekend, I'll give your new method all the praise it deserves. I don't see any signs for that happening, but then again, I usually only pick up trends once they started forming, while you seem to attempt to look ahead a bit more.
what reversal are you speaking about?
current mtgox price: 140 $.
so, instead of a drop to 127 $, we will have it to 129. nothing's changed actually.
Monday, September 23, 2013 $127.21
Tuesday, September 24, 2013 $129.43
I think I liked your other indicator better. But I'll say that much: if the (short term) reversal that would be needed to reach your numbers takes place over the weekend, I'll give your new method all the praise it deserves. I don't see any signs for that happening, but then again, I usually only pick up trends once they started forming, while you seem to attempt to look ahead a bit more.
Volume weighted average for one day, one week from today. (Gox, GMT)
I'll start.
Monday, September 23, 2013 $127.21
I'll start.
Monday, September 23, 2013 $127.21
$160
Are we stating our expected "HIGH/LOW" [depending on if we are saying its going up or down]
Because otherwise in a 24hr period the price can vary quite a bit
($3.37 today.. actually pretty low)Im gonna just throw out a random guess and say $149.80 as the high by end of Sept. 24.
Volume weighted average for one day, one week from today. (Gox, GMT)
I'll start.
Monday, September 23, 2013 $127.21
I'll start.
Monday, September 23, 2013 $127.21
This is quite bearish.
Volume weighted average for one day, one week from today. (Gox, GMT)
I'll start.
Monday, September 23, 2013 $127.21
I'll start.
Monday, September 23, 2013 $127.21
Fun!
I'll have to give a bit of a range though...
Monday, September 23, 2013: 134$ to 146$
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