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I know vividly that thirty thousand (30k)  or twenty thousand (20k) valu of bitcoin is what the majority and most especially investors are waiting for, to occur before they could purchase bitcoin at this point, the information of china and of the Russian is not new again to destabillzed or instability of cryptocurrency market regulations immensely, Russian banning of BTC is an ancient information, we had obtain such information some months back, so from my perspective is cordially effective, let investors or whom wants to bitcoin not be skeptical before purchasing Bitcoin base on regulations.

I do understand that institutional investors can make a really huge impact in the market, but I wouldn’t say that it’s going to prevent the market from passing through another bearish trend. We are still going to see another bearish trend, but the thing is that it is going to be a huge difference from what you have been seeing in the past.

But, the good thing now is going to be that the market is not going to drop as low as it used to do before, the drop is going to be moderate than the past price dips we have seen. So, as for the bear trend,it has emerged and it is not stopping soon, the market doesn’t just keep going upwards without it being a time that it is going to at least drop to another low price but the good thing is, the bottom will be still above $30k levels.

my take is that probably around 25k-28k max !

Because it is more reliable than any other price. They always happen during one of the longest accumulation periods bitcoin has where price remains very stable with little change. It lasts for months too. For example $3k lasted about 5 months in 2019. $200 for about 6 months in 2015.

In comparison, price at halving is a price at one of the most volatile time of bitcoin where there has been a pump (people panic bought because of 50% drop in supply creation) and a dump as traders cash out their profit. I don't think such a price is very reliable on its own.

The problem with using the ATL is a) it is a more variable state than the halving which is clearly defined and predictable; and b) you really only have one reference as the 2012 halving didn't have a meaningful ATL.  Do you prefer to use it because you like the results better or for some other reason?

Regarding the bottom being below the previous peak - true but as above I don't think one (or even two) examples allow us to declare something unprecedented. 

As I said in my explanatory thread, I'm not invested in this as a prediction at all, I wouldn't be bothered in the slightest if it were wrong, indeed I don't actually believe we can predict anything much using analysis like this and fully expect it to be wrong, I just found it an enjoyable intellectual exercise. 

Personally I would much prefer that your and the other high value predictions were right!  Unfortunately I don't think they will be ...

I did a separate bit of analysis looking at energy consumption as the price increases, and I think this will set an upper limit on the sustained Bitcoin price during each epoch.  Unless of course someone manages to get fusion working and energy becomes basically free.

even now it will be more than that I think in a decline because indeed they have not shown signs of an increase there.
Talking about a good investment or not, actually it still tends to be good and even very good I think because investment is talking about the long term while the decline now is relatively short term and is not related to long term investment.
but if you want to fit then use your analysis and then invest according to the price you want there

It's astonishing that approximately two years ago, Bitcoin was surpassing $20.000 and constantly reaching new all time high records. Look at us now, trying to predict where will the downtrend stop. On the one hand, $20-$25k does sound plausible, but on the other hand, there seems to be some kind of resistance at the $35.000 price level, which is stuck now for the past two days.

I prefer to calculate the rises and everything else (relative rise %) from the bottom of the cycle (ie. ATL in my charts) when the next cycle starts with the first rise. That means the 2013 rise was about 60x and 2017 one was 131x (not your 30x) and this time it was only 21x.

I still see an increase on each cycle (2013 to 2017) then it significantly shrinks this time.
Which is why I disagree with your fall % at the bottom also. If you look you are also predicting a final ATL that is way below the previous bubble peak in 2017, that is unprecedented. Each cycle when the dump happens we end up at a price that is much higher than previous bubble peak. $20 > $150 > $3200 are all ATLs higher than previous bubble peak.

$20K sounds fair if we are talking about not the worse situation. It could dip lower than that if we are really going to experience another long bear market, it's not going to surprise a lot of us whos been around for years with the ups and downs in BTC market. The market somehow becomes very predictable to the old traders that they know after 3-6months the price will be this low after the ATH.  But for us who plays in the 1-4hour chart, the market keeps swinging from the bottom and then ups.

$13K could also be the bottom but seem too deep already and it's a bargain for a new country to begin buying to adopt BTC.

In an extreme bearish scenario where the stock market goes down another 20% or more it could force miners to sell at a loss and break this pattern, but your chart is one of the reasons why I think people who wait for 10 or 15k bitcoin will end up like those who waited for 1k bitcoin in 2019.


This is what analysts call "lengthening cycles with diminishing returns". That's actually one of the bitcoin market theories.

The cycles are definitely different I don't think you can conclude that means this one is incomplete.  As I argued here we only have two data points so far which isn't really enough to form a reliable pattern.  Even if you try to draw a pattern you can clearly see that the second cycle was longer and (proportionately) lower than the first, so if you then extrapolate that trend it looks something like this (blue values are projected):





(More detail in the thread linked above)
 

ill throw my guess in.
'value window'(mining cost, not market price) bottom sits at:
one month low of $33229.81
three month low of $30237.55
six month low of $20333.11
twelve month low of $16751.05
these lows mentioned above are not based on "price" lows seen.. but based on absolute bottom mining cost which has nothing to do with the market price. but has to do with the cheapest anyone can mine on the planet on the day of the hashrate that day

its based simply by calculating the mining cost and tracking that with the hashrate(no market price variable included).
premium mining cost (hardware with ROI+ $0.37/kwh electric)
cheapest mining cost (hardware with ROI+ $0.04/kwh electric)

and separately THEN adding in the market price into the final chart as a comparison


note the mining cost b & p is pure [asic hardware ROI+electric cost] vs hashrate. using bitmain s19pr (110th at $12k with 2year ROI and $0.04elec or $0.37elec). it has no market price variable,

yet for all the years i have used this. the price(separate stat in grey) has happily sat between the cheap-premium mining cost window.

yes the mining hashrate can retreat back to 3month, 6 month or 1 year bottom. allowing for the price to retreat down too.

I wonder about the opinions of the CEOs,shareholders and financial experts of all the institutional investors,that bought Bitcoin 1-2 years ago,about the current price drop.
Are there going to be new institutional investors buying BTC,when they know that Bitcoin is capable of such volatility?
For me,the absolute price bottom of Bitcoin is zero.Claiming that a random number between 1 dollar and 30K USD is the "absolute price bottom" is just pure guessing.
I know that the bloodbath on the crypto markets will stop.Actually the stock market faced a price drop as well,so there's no clear reason behind the current BTC price crash.It's just the financial markets are being insecure about multiple factors-the pandemic,the high inflation,the tensions between USA and Russia.
It can be everything.

To be clear I don't claim "historical data mean nothing". My arguments are about the size of the drop not the drop itself.

We could be in a bear market and may even not have any major rises this whole year, but I still argue that there is no reason for the drop to be the same size as previous big bear markets (ie. the 85% drop) simply because the rise wasn't of same magnitude.

As for the market, none of it makes any sense to me for the past month or two which is why I try not to speculate anything and watch what happens at least in the first months of 2022 and so far things have only gotten weirder if you ask me. But at the same time I can't agree with anyone using the cycles to predict the size of this drop when clearly the top wasn't even close to of the same size. After all the cycle isn't just the bear market part, it start with the bull market and the bubble causes the bear market of that magnitude.
If you compare the whole cycle you can clearly see that the one ending in 2021 is clearly incomplete:

You're welcome, my pleasure. The stock market is also bearish the past few weeks or maybe months, it was kind of expected that cryptocurrencies would be severely affected eventually.

I've never seen such a high balance in my lifetime, more than $4.5 billion dollars in value, while Bitcoin purchases aren't stopping, he definitely knows what he's doing, otherwise he wouldn't kept buying.

I'm not familiar with the whole investment thing, any BTC I ever owned was accumulated through a variety of ways, I've never actually bought from scratch, in terms of investment. I used to trade in the past, but have now stopped, unfortunately to be honest, I don't have the stomach to do it.

Thanks Ultegra134.

We were getting signs of sideways accumulation period at 40k, but the recent stock market drop pushed us over the edge. I don't think we can call it a crash yet, but it's bad for some co0mpanies like Netflix that lost over 20%. If you look at US stocks, they had their highs last year, just like Bitcoin.

The demand will continue to rise the lower we get. For instance, the rich keep buying. Just take a look at what this address is doing. It kept adding to its balance every time Bitcoin had a drop, since November. It bought at 50, 40 and now 30k.
https://btc.com/btc/address/1P5ZEDWTKTFGxQjZphgWPQUpe554WKDfHQ
There was also a huge (1 billion) USDt transfer to binance today.

We can divide BTC price action into fueled by internal and external factors. Internal ones are usually problematic for the long run, like the Gox bankruptcy. External problems may look bad at first but are really a great entry points even for the short-term investor. A good example of such external problems was the US lockdown crash of 2020.

While I respect both opinions, I tend to believe that while $29.000 does sound plausible, I wouldn't be surprised if it crashed even further, below $20.000 or $25.000. Great explanation, though, rounded up your merit to 700  .

Anyway, I do remember that we had the same thing last year, shortly after the new all-time high. While our concerns are understandable, and it's not easy to maintain your cool, I'm positive that it will recover in the upcoming 2-3 months, which isn't a big deal to be honest.

I don't think that 20k is impossible, just that IMO we have 50/50 chance of holding 30k, or going lower towards 20, but IMO 15 is improbable for many reasons like moving averages, bitcoin history of always holding the last ATH when it's been breached for the second time, round numbers like 20k being key targets for most people, crowd mentality and so on.

That 13k you're pointing at was a pandemic flash crash when USA announced total lockdown. It was something we call a black swan event, pretty much comparable to a big terrorist attack, beginning of an armed conflict and so on. I don't think we can simply bleed for a year until we finally reach 13k again.




Please... Google how many times in the last 10 years people said that it's over and the next stop is $1, 0, or some other low number.
Global mining is worth billions of USD, we have more investments in the space than we've had at 10 or 15k per coin. We have more users, more hash power, more companies involved. If we couldn't reach $1 in 2014 when Mt. Gox collapsed, we will not see it now.  

In fact, a $100k bitcoin is much more probable than a $1k bitcoin.

I find it to be funny that this time last year people were celebrating 30k USD and today everybody is sad because we're only at 30k.
Curb your expectations! Buy now and don't look at the price until 2023 and you'll thank me for it.


It's always darkest right before the dawn.
For all of you, who are scared now, here's a thread from last year, when people were saying the same thing, that it's all over, it's bear market, we will keep falling for years, and 3 months later BTC was at a new high.
https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=5331595.new#new

Well, I cannot be completely sure about it but according to what I can see on the chart in my own idea the bottom of the bear market can be down to 29K price level and that's where I'm going to buy more bitcoins if we reach this price level however this bear market can continue even more and for months until we see a price trigger and bullish signal to exit the bearish market, this bearish market was really important for the price of bitcoin to save potential also saving power for reaching higher price levels hoping for a new all-time high but this situation may remain for months before changing to bullish.

Things to consider:
1. 4 year cycle theory is IMO less plausible than the lengthening cycle theory.
If you're not familiar with this one it basically compares how many days it took Bitcoin to reach the top from the bottom of the bear market and in every cycle this number is higher.
2. Big bear market lows like those 70-80% usually happened after an overheated top, like in 2017 when we had 20x gains from the previous ATH. This time there was no such thing and you could see that in the fear index reaching values below 20 after a 25% correction.
Usually big gains mean deep, prolonged corrections, but the last bull run was pretty weak, which suggests a weak correction. 
3. As market matures it's natural for the fomo rallies to become less common and less volatile and it's the same with corrections.
4. Most people overshoot with their predictions.You could see it in the last bear market when know traders and youtubers were expecting 1k and it all ended at 3k. It's the same every time and right now a lot of people expect 20k, which is why I believe we'll never get there.

IMO 29k will hold. The lowest I'd expect to see would be 20k, with a possible wick down to 19k with enough panic, but there's going to be such a wall of buys at that level that if we start going towards 20 it will get short squeezed to 25.

Long term I see 2 options. We hold 30k and go back up to 40 and if that breaks to a new ATH.
We'll lose 30 and go down towards 20 where the correction will end.

It will all play out in the next 3 months. I don't see a 2 year long bear market ahead, unless the stock market goes -50%.

Maybe it will be below $30k as the bottom of bitcoin, but having the right number will not be easy because when people panic like today, they will throw their bitcoin right away before they lose more. But I am okay if the price is below $20k or even at $10k. It seems the price is getting pushed to go down now, and the price reaches $34k, lower than before. So it will make most people follow to dump their bitcoin at once and wait for another bottom price.

This January is a blood bath for crypto and I guess it will remain until next month so prepare your money to buy back at the dip or you will regret missing the right time to invest in crypto.

We can throw in as many numbers as we want, but there is no solid basis on which to predict where the price will stop - and as things stand we are in free fall at a time of year when purchasing power is at its lowest, taxes are knocking on everyone's door, inflation is on the rise, and geniuses who have used the printing of money en masse for the past two years to save their positions have realized that they can no longer do it.

Bitcoin is part of the system (did we want an adaptation?), and all those stories about safe heaven and hedge against the nonsense of the modern world crumble like a tower of cards when your asset loses 50% in just 2 months or less. Not to be misunderstood, I’m still for Bitcoin - but this could have happened 2 months ago, or 2 months from today - the sooner we hit bottom, the sooner we’ll soar to new heights.

And where is the absolute bottom? It may be under $30k which has been shown several times last year, but it won't surprise me if it's close to $20k. Trust is a really tricky thing, and there seem to be very few people who believe in Bitcoin these days.

I *think* we are going to see sub $20000 and then a climb back up.

Sadly, people are stupid. I have been hearing so many people talk about the fact that they made a nice profit in 2021 in BTC but now had to liquidate more because they forgot to put some aside to pay their taxes. So now they are selling to cover the tax bill and are seeing it go lower as other people sell to do the same so instead of waiting for the possible bump up, they just sell. Which then keeps the price pressure going down so others who are on the fence about selling want to get out and so on.

The other thing I have seen is people who put in stop loss prices are now seeing them trigger.

-Dave

you have point. But even though it's not backed by anything else probably those people who always can get benefits in it will not let bitcoin to go back from the starting point especially big holders because it's a big loss for them as well. Just imagine if bitcoin suddenly fell from $1 seems the end of journey.. But i believe the real principle still useful and will always the real key to make bitcoin shine no matter what, wherein there's no way it will not keep holding every support level as long as there are still some people believing that bitcoin still a worth it than any cryptocurrency in the market.

I've seen a lot during my Bitcoin journey, since 2013. To be honest, I'm clueless about what's going to happen. Is it concerning? It is, I didn't believe that we would lose the $40.000 resistance. Up to this point, I wouldn't be surprised if a similar pattern of 2017 occurs. Bitcoin suddenly crashes, facing huge losses.

To be honest, I'm pretty disappointed, but I'm trying to keep my cool, not panic and not do anything stupid.

This is an interesting analysis. Without the usual, hard to grasp statistical mumbo-jumbo. Thanks Ratimov. While the 15% residual bottom is an interesting theory, did we ever had the kind of cliffs waiting to break even from the buying points of institutional investors?

I think this will pretty much be a cycle of reckoning. If the institutions and individuals falter, there'll most probably be a selling spree that we cannot imagine and sub-10K wouldn't be so far away. On the other hand, if they continue to hold below their buy-ins, and do not close positions, it'd mean a huge endorsement for the fact that 1 BTC=1BTC.

And then we'd see a bullrun that has always been prophesized, lol.

Whatever maybe the bottom, I am going to ask those close to me to invest and buy what they can.

My guesstimateredictoin^TM was for a high of 77k and a low of 12.6k: https://bitcointalksearch.org/topic/comparing-bitcoin-halvings-2012-to-2020-and-now-looking-ahead-to-2024-5375808 - the 77k is looking unlikely (though still barely possible I suppose) so maybe the low will be nearer 15k?  Suggesting even more of a smoothing of the cycles than I thought.

Well of course the absolute bottom for Bitcoin is £0, but I think that is a very remote possibility. Bitcoin is the only virtual money that has a hard asset value, and now that we know how to initiate 51% attacks, it is unlikely to have any competition in the future. I suspect that the price is being manipulated, and that the financial houses are busy accumulating right now. This hasn't happened before, so it is difficult to try to guess when the next bull run will happen. I suspect that it may have a bit further to fall, but I have a bad track record for predicting Bitcoin price movements. For this reason, I think I am going to start picking up £500 blocks of Sats as the price drops.

In my opinion, the greatest threat to Bitcoin is the massive accumulation by the finance houses, and we can guard against this by buying and HODLing. Running a node will help as well. When I've installed some solar panels, I might try a bit of solo mining, and I know I probably won't find a block, but if enough of us do it, then some will get lucky.

Price somewhere around $20k will be bottom range for Bitcoin. I see price soars from $20k so if Bitcoin has serious correction to where it began, it would stop around $20k.

I don't bet Bitcoin will drop to and touch $20k but I don't exclude it from my plan. From $35k to $20k will be 45% correction and I think Bitcoin if falls to $20k, will need a few weeks to drop to it. It is easy for whales to dump it to $20k in last week of January or first week of February but I don't think they will make such manipulation. Because they will keep it last longer to make people feel tired, boring and shake them out from the game.

20K$ is the worst case and if ever the price hit that low. I believe the price will go more deeper since its buying price of all investors that bought bought crypto on the latest bullrun cycle. But it will need a major bad news to make that happened since there's already a lot of institutional trader that trading in crypto. There's no way they will not gonna make a move and bought this kind of dip since this is a good opportunity to manipulate the market once again.

I neither agree with pooya one hundred percent, but I can't unsee this connection between the cycles and the halvings. Bitcoin's first four years were very significant. Half of the coins were brought into circulation. In the second halving, which occurred in summer of 2016, another 1/4 of the coins were included into circulation, leaving only 1/4 for the next halvings.

In other words, if we assume the demand increases as times goes on, we should feel extremely bullish as it gains more scarcity. I guess this cycle is over, but I don't cross my arms. Again, nobody knows nothing.

Maybe I’ll call it $20k bottom as the worst case scenario. Probably I was thinking between $25k to $28k as the bottom where a lot of supporters are going to defend this range, but we can’t just simply be sure about that due to the fact that the market is very unpredictable. Congrats to those who have shorted Bitcoin recently, they’ve made happy gains for that.

Previously, I was in the category of "Speculators and market tourists will panic sell below cost" but over the years I have moved to the category of "Holders will pick up cheap coins, build up positions".
My portfolio is more than 50% down yet I am not so worried because we know that sooner or later bitcoin will recover from it's bottom and move towards another ATH.

There is a strong support at $28k - $30k level which I think won't be broken since bitcoin is currently in the over sold region as per RSI.
So may be this range can be a bottom and then we might see bitcoin going sideways through out the year slowly recovering by the end of the year.
At this point we can do nothing but speculate and derive our own theories as to what might happen.

There is no doubt that some circumstances have changed but as one of the traders I used to follow would always say, respect the market cycle. When talking about the floor price, I also don't know. I'm currently looking at $30K but this is just the first month of the year. It's probably just a market reaction to the upcoming Chinese Lunar Year and the Russia central bank ban proposal.

please be patient all this is a test, don't forget to have breakfast to be strong to face reality, many people are against bitcoin even the government is doing everything possible to bring down bitcoin, recently the russian central bank also submitted a proposal to close bitcoin mining, now what we need is to build each other up trust, the price of bitcoin has now dropped below 25k, everyone is panicking but we have to wait and be patient..

I calculated a price between $13-18k.
 

I can't predict the bottom but I can tell you one thing, you can't compare the current drop we are experiencing with previous bear markets after the bubbles for one simple reason: this time we did NOT have any bubble. You can see it in my avatar too, price had to reach at least $400k for it to be a bubble of same magnitude as previous cycles.

Consequently you can't expect the same level of dumping and a similar bear market if the bull market and the bubble wasn't even close to being the same.

If you compute the 85% dump from this ATH you can see that it would reach $10k which makes no sense either since all previous bubbles dumped to a price was above their starting price and the previous bubble ATH. For example the 2017 bubble ended at $20k and crashed to $3k which was 3x higher than the bubble before that (~$1k in 2013). If we drop to $10k that means we would be falling to half the previous bubble!!!

My point is that we either should have gone up to $400k or we can no longer use the "cycle" theory and previous cycles to speculate the future price.

That's awful. We've just begun the Bitcoin winter (according to past cycles) and we are already bleeding so much. Almost all of the top 100 coins are down 20% just today. From the looks of it, it's going to be rough. I don't even know if it's good to invest right now.

Since Bitcoin is not really backed by anything other than trust of the people, then I have always lived with the idea that the absolute bottom for Bitcoin is somewhere near 1$. In the current situation I do not find it likely at all that it would reach that, but I would also be very cautious about relying too much on historic data about Bitcoin performance. It can be a useful indicator for sure, but it gives us no hard rules about the current bottom.

What's eating at me right now is that ATH was barely 10 weeks ago and we've already lost almost 50%. I was prepared for a downfall, sure, but I was almost certain we'd reached a point where Bitcoin wasn't going to get all supercycle again (no more 10 x parabolic move up), before falling on the sword for extreme crashes. So the "slow" 20k to almost 70k suited me.

But this unwinding at speed, certainly January anyway, seems to suggest you're right after all, Bitcoin's still a cycle asset and in decline now -- but 20k surely has to be the floor for me. If Bitcoin were to break that floor, then we'd also have a first time for Bitcoin to go below an ATH set in the previous cycle.

Not sure I know what to do with the implications of that.

Microstrategy decleared its first purchase in August 2020 that he bought $250 million worth of Bitcoin.

Let us compare 2013 bull run to 2017 bull run
1147÷ 177 = 6.48
19343 ÷ 3239 = 5.97x
(6.48 - 5.97 ÷ 2) + 5.97 = 5.715

Comparing it with the 2021 all-time-high
69000 ÷ 5.715 = 12073 in USD.

I should have predicted $12073 but adoption could probably change this, institutions are now more into Bitcoin investment. Also very possible as Bitcoin adoption increases, the volatility will be reducing.

If I will have to be sentimental about this, I will go for $20000, that Bitcoin price will not fall below $20000. If it falls below to like $19800, this could trigger bull run.

As a 2-year old Bitcoiner, I can state that the following is reasonably confirmed;

When I made my account here the price wasn't greater than $9,000. I had no damn clue that we'd reach $69,000 and whoever was telling me it'd do it within a few months, was automatically ignored. I have no damn clue what's the absolute bottom and it doesn't matter if we judge the previous cycles. I think it's now clear that it won't do what it had done 4 years ago.

All I want from the price is to move slowly. Holders/Investors aren't affected much from these fluctuations, but as a person who uses it to pay goods, I can say that it's really annoying sometimes.

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