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pooya87

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Quote from: Beerwizzard on March 12, 2022, 05:05:06 AM

There was no serious correction since ATH so we can still say that market price is still pretty close to ATH. Stock prices may be evaluated by multipliers and they are not showing anything bad.
The pandemic was a problem, but the issue i not a money printing. Pandemic caused a few economic shocks, it significantly changed the demand and at the same time disrupted the existing supply chains. What we see as inflation was not caused as money printing.

I'd say 15% dump by stock market standards is a serious correction.
You are right that the pandemic caused a lot of issues for the economy but the money printing was also a major problem on its own. It is like economy was facing a crisis and they tried saving it by printing a lot of money that historically has only caused more problems in long term.

FanEagle

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Quote from: Beerwizzard on March 12, 2022, 05:05:06 AM

There was no serious correction since ATH so we can still say that market price is still pretty close to ATH. Stock prices may be evaluated by multipliers and they are not showing anything bad.
The pandemic was a problem, but the issue i not a money printing. Pandemic caused a few economic shocks, it significantly changed the demand and at the same time disrupted the existing supply chains. What we see as inflation was not caused as money printing.

People do not want to hear this, and it is so important. When you say we are not that far away from ATH, it is not even 50% dropped yet, people keep asking how is 40% or so drop not bad, and how is that close to ATH. But they do not realize that for bitcoin, going up like that is nothing at all. We were under 30k back in September or something, and we reached 68k in October.

It took us less than 15 days to reach from 50%+ lower, to breaking it again and reaching higher. So if you ask me, I agree that you should be considering this price close enough for trying another ATH attack. However I do not think that it would matter at this point because not that many people believe it currently.

Beerwizzard

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Quote from: pooya87 on March 11, 2022, 02:00:57 AM

ATH was on December last year, it has been dumping ever since (about 15% down actually).
The rise itself is a sign of inflation not their growth. The ridiculous amount of money they printed during the pandemic is slowly showing its ugly face everywhere. They have been pumping a lot of it into the stock market to keep it up and slow down the economy's crash while price of everything soars.

There was no serious correction since ATH so we can still say that market price is still pretty close to ATH. Stock prices may be evaluated by multipliers and they are not showing anything bad.
The pandemic was a problem, but the issue i not a money printing. Pandemic caused a few economic shocks, it significantly changed the demand and at the same time disrupted the existing supply chains. What we see as inflation was not caused as money printing.

Quote from: pooya87 on March 11, 2022, 02:00:57 AM

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During the bull trend it is easier for crypto to get more investments.

I don't know about crypto but bitcoin has been rising consistently over the past 13 years and only a tiny portion of it has been stock market bull run, the majority of it was it dumping.
Shitcoins only attract investment when bitcoin is closing in a bubble. Which is why we never had an altcoin pumping season (bitcoin didn't reach bubble this time). Which again has nothing to do with stock market.

Well, main BTC growth happened years after 2008 when a serious crisis was far behind. Bitcoin could never face a serious crisis on a stock market. And during its entire existence it never happened that during serious problems on traditional market we could see booming crypto prices or someone releasing any serious projects. Usually during hard times investors consider crypto investments too risky.

pooya87

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Quote from: Beerwizzard on March 10, 2022, 12:56:50 PM

Stock market is currently at its ATH.

ATH was on December last year, it has been dumping ever since (about 15% down actually).
The rise itself is a sign of inflation not their growth. The ridiculous amount of money they printed during the pandemic is slowly showing its ugly face everywhere. They have been pumping a lot of it into the stock market to keep it up and slow down the economy's crash while price of everything soars.

Quote

During the bull trend it is easier for crypto to get more investments.

I don't know about crypto but bitcoin has been rising consistently over the past 13 years and only a tiny portion of it has been stock market bull run, the majority of it was it dumping.
Shitcoins only attract investment when bitcoin is closing in a bubble. Which is why we never had an altcoin pumping season (bitcoin didn't reach bubble this time). Which again has nothing to do with stock market.

so98nn

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This is crazy, bitcoin averaged 4000+ in percent hike over the five years. That’s just crazy asset anyone ever created. Now just tell me why should we be selling our coins at this point. This table just made me more enthusiastic about the future of crypto currencies. If we skip to the good part then this is gonna go up and we could simply bag 4K May be 2k percent profit in the coming five years. Though with the time more crypto investors will hop in but let’s just say the count stays the same then also thousand percent hike is not a big deal over next 5-6 years. If they still think it’s a bubble then they should just check this comparison.

Beerwizzard

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Quote from: pooya87 on March 10, 2022, 01:47:19 AM

Quote from: Beerwizzard on March 09, 2022, 11:20:08 AM

BTC is actually following the stock market. Investors are happy to get profits during the bull run, but it is still a risky investment. Once a serious crisis happens, people will cash out their bitcoins right away.

Which stock market? There are about 200 countries in the world and almost all of them have a stock market!

I also don't think you have ever compared bitcoin charts with the stock market stats! If you did, you'd realize that although there are coincidences and some random simultaneous panic sells there has never been any "following" involved. For example the biggest similarities happened during the 2020 pandemic where stock market crashed and bitcoin crashed also. But then bitcoin recovered very quickly while stock market continued crashing. Then bitcoin passed its previous price (before the crash) while stock market was struggling and finally bitcoin set a new ATH while stock market was having a tiny recovery.
I don't know how anybody calls this "following stock market"!!!

You joking...
Probably the one that have volumes. In modern world it is generally US companies and for the time being they feel grate. Stock market is currently at its ATH. During the bull trend it is easier for crypto to get more investments. However, crypto is still mainly considered as risky asset and during hard times investors are liquidating such positions.

Poker Player

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Quote from: pooya87 on March 10, 2022, 01:47:19 AM

Quote from: Beerwizzard on March 09, 2022, 11:20:08 AM

BTC is actually following the stock market. Investors are happy to get profits during the bull run, but it is still a risky investment. Once a serious crisis happens, people will cash out their bitcoins right away.

Which stock market? There are about 200 countries in the world and almost all of them have a stock market!

I don't know if you are being ironic but it is clear that he is referring to the US stock market, whose reference index would be the S&P 500. Although there are some stock markets in emerging countries that are not so closely related, normally what happens in the US stock markets affects the rest of the stock markets. It is often said that if the U.S. catches a cold, the rest catch the flu.

About the rest of what you say, I completely agree.

pooya87

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Quote from: Beerwizzard on March 09, 2022, 11:20:08 AM

BTC is actually following the stock market. Investors are happy to get profits during the bull run, but it is still a risky investment. Once a serious crisis happens, people will cash out their bitcoins right away.

Which stock market? There are about 200 countries in the world and almost all of them have a stock market!

I also don't think you have ever compared bitcoin charts with the stock market stats! If you did, you'd realize that although there are coincidences and some random simultaneous panic sells there has never been any "following" involved. For example the biggest similarities happened during the 2020 pandemic where stock market crashed and bitcoin crashed also. But then bitcoin recovered very quickly while stock market continued crashing. Then bitcoin passed its previous price (before the crash) while stock market was struggling and finally bitcoin set a new ATH while stock market was having a tiny recovery.
I don't know how anybody calls this "following stock market"!!!

worle1bm

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Really interesting chart with nice comparisons among gold and USD to determine how much potential bitcoin have and grown in the past years.The only major fall was in 2018 after that ICO bubble burst in 2017 which caused the red graphs printing highly in the market while making regular growth each year.These big picture proves that how much returns holders have got through holding bitcoin.All other are mostly depleting similar to gold and not having much left to give to hodlers.

Distinctin

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I think I would just look at the yearly comparison as it gives a clearer picture.

In the picture, I focused on bitcoin and I can clearly see how volatile Bitcoin is since at some point it dumps -74% as its highest but it only pumped in a whooping and unbelievable increase of 5428% which is the highest.

This only tells that investing in bitcoin as long as you know how to hold and sell at the right time could mean a fortune to you, and the trend just continues since bitcoin has no ceiling price as long as the demand continues to increase.

bitgolden

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Obviously when you zoom out and see what bitcoin did for the past 10 years, you are going to see it being awesome. Not many things could go up the way it did. However, you have to realize that it was basically the early days of bitcoin and that is why when something great starts, and goes up for the first 10 years, it will be a bit unfair for the other things.

If we look at the next 10 years, it will be closer, bitcoin will probably still win but it will be closer, if we look 10 years after that, even closer. So, this wasn't a fair calculation, there weren't many people here, and there wasn't much market to make from crypto at the time neither.

teosanru

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Beerwizzard

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Quote from: Symmetrick on March 07, 2022, 06:13:39 AM

I recently came across an interesting picture of various asset classes with annualized returns over the past 10 years. Another proof that bitcoin as an investment has no competitors:

It is pretty stupid make such serious announcement by analyzing Bitcoin just from one side. Absolutely the same material quality like you can see in shitcoin articles saying Shiba Inu is an ultimate investment.
Checking if numbers go up or down doesn't tell if the asset is good.

Quote from: pooya87 on March 08, 2022, 01:24:04 AM

This is why bitcoin market has never been following any other market and is doing its own thing regardless of what is going on elsewhere.

BTC is actually following the stock market. Investors are happy to get profits during the bull run, but it is still a risky investment. Once a serious crisis happens, people will cash out their bitcoins right away.

kryptqnick

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Yeah, Bitcoin is a very well-performing asset, and data like that show it very clearly. Even though 2020 and 2021 have been economically hard because of the pandemic, and 2022 is getting economically hard because of the war, Bitcoin is still profitable overall because its digital nature makes it less prone to being hit negatively by events like wars and pandemics. Because the only thing that gets disrupted with Bitcoin is mining, and even mining can get readjusted (companies can relocate, and if some stop operating, the difficulty rate that change), while traditional markets are affected by things like global logistics, security, transportation etc.

slaman29

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Quote from: bitmover on March 07, 2022, 08:49:21 AM

I believe bitcoin valorization here is very high because early years was specially high.

I make now a table with the last 5Y only, and the results were quiet different:

That's really cool, almost 10x more than the closest "competitor" asset. But this last 5 years I guess means it includes the period from March 2017. Bitcoin jumped 20x in the next 9 months from that year. I wonder in another cycle if 5 years will still make Bitcoin the "best" asset to gain in value. I somehow feel it might not be, but let's see how this year looks first, I sort of like it when we are in the dumps because that's usually when things can get extremely exciting!

_BlackStar

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Quote from: Bitcoin_Arena on March 08, 2022, 06:06:53 PM

I am expecting 10k to 8K before another bully run post 2024, but anything could happen.

I agree with pooya87 about the possibility that bitcoin won't decline below its previous ATH once it hits a new ATH. The new ATH is $69K and the previous ATH was around $20K, so if this is a recurring habit then bitcoin won't decline below $20K in the event of a dump and the decline can be considered to be around 50% to 70% or lower. But what is clear is that $8K to $10K is not impossible because something can always change at any time and vice versa.

pooya87

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Quote from: Bitcoin_Arena on March 08, 2022, 06:06:53 PM

I am expecting 10k to 8K before another bully run post 2024, but anything could happen.

Your expectations are unreasonable and unprecedented. Price has never gone below the previous ATH after reaching the new ATH. For example when the 2013 bubble at $1200 popped price went down to $200 (previous cycle ATH was about $20).
Again in 2018 when the $20000 bubble popped it went down to $3200 (previous cycle ATH was $1200).

We didn't have any bubble this cycle (bubble of same size would have been $400k+, see my current avatar) so there is no reason to see a big bubble pop in first place. Additionally expecting a dump below the previous ATH (ie. $20000) makes no sense at all either.

Quote

based on biggest annual decline in 2018

You see the biggest mistake people make these days is that they keep comparing the drop part without comparing the rise part first.
The big drop in 2018 happened because price had gone up 13000% but the price in this cycle only went up 1700% so you can't possibly begin to compare the two cycles because this one is incomplete.

Bitcoin_Arena

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Quote from: _BlackStar on March 08, 2022, 04:09:19 AM

Quote from: odolvlobo on March 08, 2022, 12:56:51 AM

The biggest yearly declines of any asset were Bitcoin's 74% decline in 2018 and 58% decline in 2015. You can't ignore that.

The decline occurred after ATH and halving, right?

The first having took place on 28 Nov 2012, second one was on 9 July 2016 and the latest was on 11 May 2020. The next will be in 2024. So as a matter of fact, bull highest gains have been realized right from the year the halving takes place

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If that's true then I wouldn't rule out a possible declines after ATH $69K in November 2021. Right now the post ATH drop has hit 44% and I would consider a declines of more than 70% this year.

It's possible, but the gains of 2021 are not as high as those in 2017 and 2013.

Quote

Low point for bitcoin price if based on biggest annual decline in 2018 ^[74%] then this year bitcoin could decline to as low as $17K to $20K. It's still possible, but there's never a guarantee that it's true.

I am expecting 10k to 8K before another bully run post 2024, but anything could happen.

_BlackStar

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Quote from: odolvlobo on March 08, 2022, 12:56:51 AM

The biggest yearly declines of any asset were Bitcoin's 74% decline in 2018 and 58% decline in 2015. You can't ignore that.

The decline occurred after ATH and halving, right?
If that's true then I wouldn't rule out a possible declines after ATH $69K in November 2021. Right now the post ATH drop has hit 44% and I would consider a declines of more than 70% this year. Low point for bitcoin price if based on biggest annual decline in 2018 ^[74%] then this year bitcoin could decline to as low as $17K to $20K. It's still possible, but there's never a guarantee that it's true.

smartaction

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Quote from: Symmetrick on March 07, 2022, 06:13:39 AM

Asset	2012	2013	2014	2015	2016	2017	2018	2019	2020	2021
___________________________________	________	________	________	________	________	________	________	________	________	________
Bitcoin	218%	5428%	-58%	36%	120%	1375%	-74%	95%	305%	60%
Gold	7%	-28%	-1%	-10%	8%	14%	-2%	18%	25%	-4%

Very interesting topic. Great work OP. It is very interesting that Bitcoin has grown so much in less time. And that's why people are becoming more and more interested in Bitcoin. In the days to come, Bitcoin will become more popular and everyone will choose Bitcoin as a trusted and profitable asset like gold.

pooya87

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Interesting table but some rows make no sense to me. For example what is USD being compared to? Other fiat currencies or goods? Or is it just inflation? I think the only viable comparison is to price of goods (groceries, rent, bills) which is all increasing.
The rest are also too local which makes comparing it with global markets (bitcoin, gold, oil) a bit odd. For example even something like "Energy" differs from country to country. I can think of a dozen countries that have been facing an energy crisis over the past couple of years where prices keep rising.

Quote from: odolvlobo on March 08, 2022, 12:56:51 AM

The biggest yearly declines of any asset were Bitcoin's 74% decline in 2018 and 58% decline in 2015. You can't ignore that.

This is why bitcoin market has never been following any other market and is doing its own thing regardless of what is going on elsewhere.

odolvlobo

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The biggest yearly declines of any asset were Bitcoin's 74% decline in 2018 and 58% decline in 2015. You can't ignore that.

bitmover

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Quote from: Poker Player on March 07, 2022, 07:08:54 AM

Nice thread. The only thing I think it is missing would be a column with the total.

I just did that here:

Code:

Bitcoin 1,070,386.07%
Gold 17.28%
US Dollar 17.01%
Real Estate 121.68%
Energy -70.28%
Commodities -30.75%
Global Aggregate Debt 18.32%
US Treasuries 23.64%
US Small Equities 204.02%
US Large Equities 277.48%
US High Yield 92.76%
US Investment Grade 55.86%
US Government TIPS 37.50%
International Desktop Metal Equities 65.99%
Emerging Markets Currency 9.07%
Emerging Markets Equities 32.35%
Emerging Markets HC Dept 65.73%

I believe bitcoin valorization here is very high because early years was specially high.

I make now a table with the last 5Y only, and the results were quiet different:

Code:

Bitcoin 4745,91%
Gold 58,20%
US Dollar -7,73%
Real Estate 50,98%
Energy --18,95%
Commodities 12,49%
Global Aggregate Debt 17,37%
US Treasuries 16,67%
US Small Equities 65,87%
US Large Equities 112,58%
US High Yield 35,56%
US Investment Grade 28,77%
US Government TIPS 31,95%
International Desktop Metal Equities 38,40%
Emerging Markets Currency 14,18%
Emerging Markets Equities 40,95%
Emerging Markets HC Dept 25,41%

Dunamisx

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With this statistics, it is doubtlessly believed that bitcoin has not only come to stay but as a good available store for asset value, if bitcoin can marginalize profit rate with gold on several occasions then I think it worth investing on. And also, i want to appreciate the effort and commitment of yours @Ratimov in bringing up this together, it serve as a reference point to those still in doubts about bitcoin.

Ararbermas

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Nice one OP and to be honest that picture above can really tell why bitcoin is more interesting compared to other assets especially when it comes investment.
Because those green percentage itself is a strong proof that after the downturn bitcoin will make good improvement again and there's always another ATH value in the future.

And what i noticed only bitcoin has big percentage during bullish since 2012? Wow

DaveF

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Interesting. I have a few issues with it as some things are a bit general. 'Real Estate' is it commercial? Or residential? Or all? Same with 'Energy' it's a bit vague. Can't dig into it from where I am at the moment to see where the data comes from so it may be buried in the tweet.

There are a few other things that are not there that I wonder why, did it not fit the narrative or are they buried in some other category. Rare earth metals comes to mind (not just gold), heavy manufacturing industry also.

-Dave

Poker Player

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Nice thread. The only thing I think it is missing would be a column with the total.

The good thing is that it can keep being updated for months and years and see the evolution. I think that as the years go by the returns will be less spectacular.

Symmetrick

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