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Symmetrick

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Arcane Research also confirms the correlation between the Nasdaq 100 and Bitcoin:
Are we nearing a correlation 1 moment?

The correlation between technology stocks is at its highest, while the correlation with gold is at its lowest, and this also adds bitcoin to the rank of risk assets. Investors, against the background of the tightening of the Fed's policy, use gold as a hedge, and, on the contrary, they try to get rid of bitcoin.

There has already been an outflow of funds from ETF funds, about 10,000 BTC, and this is in the first 2 weeks of April. The momentum may continue and this figure may well rise to 15,000 BTC in the foreseeable future.

mildmanneredsuffering

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nadaq is just jewish fraud. bernie madeoff ran the nasdaq. famous kike frauds like andreesen get rich from victims of jew crime via nasdaq.

If USA ever gets a white govt back, wall street should be shut down

Bitcoin.PN

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Quote from: Symmetrick on April 12, 2022, 06:45:10 AM

The correlation between Bitcoin and the Nasdaq 100 has reached an all-time high:

Some analysts believe that this may be a harbinger of a market crash and that such a correlation calls into question the properties of bitcoin, such as risk hedging and a defensive asset.

These properties were due to the fact that bitcoin had no connection with other markets, but now that institutional investors from the stock market and other sectors of the traditional economy began to invest in bitcoin, the correlation is constantly increasing and creating an even stronger dependence of bitcoin on other markets.

Medium has an article about this: The Q-Trap

It contains the following excerpts, which do not speak in favor of the growth of bitcoin in the near future

Quote

1. Bitcoin and Ether are highly correlated to the Nasdaq 100. If the NDX tanks, it will take crypto down with it.

2. NDX, like all long-duration assets, benefits from falling interest rates.

3. Unprofitable tech, such as ARKK, got smacked as UST 2-year rates rose. Big tech (NDX) has been saved for now by a few profitable names, but even it has traded lower.

4. The Fed and all other central banks are fighting inflation, and must therefore tighten monetary conditions, not loosen them.

5. Japan, even though it is pursuing accommodative monetary policy, can’t save the world’s risk asset markets because its bazooka is a pea shooter when compared to the Fed’s.

6. The NDX bounce failed at the 61.8% Fibonacci Retracement level, and will continue lower towards and below 10,000.

7. The Fed put is not based on equities but on US corporate credit markets, which are still healthy-ish… Watch the BBB 2s / 10s spread for a sign the Fed is about to abort the mission and juice the markets higher once more.

8. Global growth will decline on higher commodity prices driven by the continuation and possible escalation of the Russia / Ukraine war. This, in absence of accommodative central banks, will also weigh negatively on stonks.

9. Ipso facto, NDX will fall, and so will crypto.

That's how we will get $4k btc again in the future.

mk4

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Quote from: MinMan on April 14, 2022, 06:28:24 AM

The "funny" thing is, I see bitcoin as the least risky investment I have ever made. I understand that people may not see it that way and there are many people who think that gold or silver or even stocks may look less risky than the famously volatile crypto.

However reality for me is that crypto is a lot better, if you know how to invest, and do not invest into some memecoins or shitcoins or scams then you should be doing better than any other investment in the world. I still feel like real estate could be better but as we all know buying a house is a big deal and requires high capital, you can buy crypto for 100 bucks, you can't do that with real estate.

"if you know how to invest" is a huge if. People frequently underestimate how hard it is to pick good altcoins as people think they're total geniuses but in fact they just rode the uptrend in a bull market. Picking altcoins on a crab market or a bear market however? Harder than most people would expect.

MinMan

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Quote from: ?? on ??

Quote from: mk4 on April 12, 2022, 11:57:38 AM

It sucks that bitcoin is trading like your typical tech stocks, but it is what it is. I guess institutional traders still look at bitcoin as a sort of risk-on asset today, in which while I kinda disagree, I really can't blame them. We're bullish af on bitcoin but it's somewhat still in "experimental" territory because of it's very young age.

Quite right. Bitcoin is considered so far as a risky asset, for the most part. Although some institutions are already starting to classify bitcoin as a safe haven asset in their portfolios, they are still in the minority. By the way, the fall of bitcoin this week happened due to the fact that investors began to sell off risky assets due to the hawkish policy of the Fed, including bitcoin.

At the moment, the safe haven lists include US bonds, gold and the Japanese yen, which almost always behave relatively calmly during volatile markets.

The "funny" thing is, I see bitcoin as the least risky investment I have ever made. I understand that people may not see it that way and there are many people who think that gold or silver or even stocks may look less risky than the famously volatile crypto.

However reality for me is that crypto is a lot better, if you know how to invest, and do not invest into some memecoins or shitcoins or scams then you should be doing better than any other investment in the world. I still feel like real estate could be better but as we all know buying a house is a big deal and requires high capital, you can buy crypto for 100 bucks, you can't do that with real estate.

hugeblack

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Personally, I don't see any kind of correlation between Bitcoin and the Nasdaq 100 and the argument that institutional investors from the stock market and other sectors of the traditional economy are the cause seems tenuous.

In general, I am happy when I hear such negative news, especially the one that spreads quickly that the price will crash because it is the moment when these investors buy more Bitcoin and therefore we will witness increases after several months when they decide to withdraw their profits.

As for the article above and the analyses associated with it, it is nothing more than to spread panic and get more views.

mk4

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Quote from: hatshepsut93 on April 12, 2022, 06:56:13 PM

So, it will take another 10-15 years before Bitcoin solidifies its position as mainstream asset, and since halvenings will have less and less effect, Bitcoin market could become less volatile and will be viewed as less risky.

Imo Gate's law should be at play here — “Most people overestimate what they can achieve in a year and underestimate what they can achieve in ten years.”

But yea whatever, the longer people don't really realize it's importance, the more chances of buying at lower prices.

hatshepsut93

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Quote from: mk4 on April 12, 2022, 11:57:38 AM

I really can't blame them. We're bullish af on bitcoin but it's somewhat still in "experimental" territory because of it's very young age.

While Bitcoin itself is 13 years old, it only started entering mainstream in 2017, and 2021 bull run was a large jump in terms of institutional awareness. So, it will take another 10-15 years before Bitcoin solidifies its position as mainstream asset, and since halvenings will have less and less effect, Bitcoin market could become less volatile and will be viewed as less risky.

I personally don't worry that Bitcoin adoption is not as high as we might have wanted, or that it's not universally perceived as a safe haven, because it will be a very-very long process.

Upgrade00

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Quote from: Symmetrick on April 12, 2022, 06:45:10 AM

Some analysts believe that this may be a harbinger of a market crash and that such a correlation calls into question the properties of bitcoin, such as risk hedging and a defensive asset.

I do not see how this creates a risk of a possible market crash. Periods of correlation between different markets which share investors is expected and has been happening for quite sometime now; This could be due to shared trader sentiments and does not signify a crash.

I do not see this as a long term situation, there are shared investors in different markets, but that does not stop them from having individual value based on their uses and qualities, Bitcoin would not be any different.

Imo, this does not call bitcoin's properties into question at all.

buwaytress

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Quote from: mk4 on April 12, 2022, 11:57:38 AM

It sucks that bitcoin is trading like your typical tech stocks, but it is what it is. I guess institutional traders still look at bitcoin as a sort of risk-on asset today, in which while I kinda disagree, I really can't blame them. We're bullish af on bitcoin but it's somewhat still in "experimental" territory because of it's very young age.

Yeah, not something I suppose I totally expected years ago, but if there was the argument that institutional money would be key to market trends in Bitcoin, then that correlation would have to be the poisoned chalice. It's also likely to me the traditional investor simply sees Bitcoin as a new type of tech stock, and simply an asset to diversify on in the same class (and that's probably a pragmatic way for most investors).

mk4

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It sucks that bitcoin is trading like your typical tech stocks, but it is what it is. I guess institutional traders still look at bitcoin as a sort of risk-on asset today, in which while I kinda disagree, I really can't blame them. We're bullish af on bitcoin but it's somewhat still in "experimental" territory because of it's very young age.

jackg

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https://bit.ly/387FXHi lightning theory

The correlation did start when an unprecedented event since high volume fast online trading was invented - it could be a temporary peg since the two had the same causation.

It'd make sense that both have an effect on each other though as people investing in big tech are probably also investing at crypto (at every level - from retail to professional).

The fact correlation is high also doesn't mean it's proportional afaik, you could probably see a similar price trend in both but with one going up/down by more - much like how a lot of tech stocks did well or badly on a bit of an arbitrary basis as they all seemed to suffer similar problems around the same time but companies like amazon were considered a much safer bet than Netflix.

Symmetrick

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