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Symmetrick

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Quote from: Oshosondy on June 16, 2022, 05:08:48 AM

When the price falled recently first time below $30000, what happened was very different which did not happen during the bull market, it falled to almost $26000. The reason $30000 is never a strong support again and can not even be considered as support as the price is even falling again below $30000 many times. If I meant $30000 is never a strong support, I am not talking anymore about the bull market period which we are no more at now, we are in the bear period, my analyses is about the bear period and not the bull period, $30000 was not a strong support since like 2 months ago, it became the resistant level which have signalled more bear market. Bitcoin did not that stay above $30000 when it always falled back below $30000 after the crashed from $37500.

This is the first time I hear about the division of support/resistance levels into bullish/bearish periods. Who cares what the trend is, it is obvious that strong supports break during bearish trends, just as strong resistances break during bullish trends. These things are taken for granted, because you will never see a breakdown of the resistance at the ATH level during a bear market, just like reaching an absolute bottom during a bullish trend. It doesn't happen, so it's clear that support wanes during bear markets as supply starts to outstrip demand and selling pressure mounts.

buwaytress

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Thanks for the chart, I knew without seeing it had to be a record inflow, but now I see there are two very closely bunched peaks at 30k and 20k, and both weren't at the panic levels of March 2020... which suggests either there just wasn't enough weak hands left now as we test 2017 ATH as support, OR that actual denouement is yet to come.

Think the "problem" is that we're still just about half of Bitcoin holders "underwater". Crazy to think, but half are still in profit having bought majority of coins before the last rally.

So in theory, a lot more people ready to bear a lot more pain than at all previous capitulations.

^ I only see the proxy error notices. My preferred image hosting site seems to be doing it on and off. Posting as below.

hugeblack

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Attempting to determine the bottom will not be feasible as far as holding it to be the beginning of the rebound to levels above 30k, this may not happen quickly, especially with all the problems that occur in the world, but if there is an opportunity to rise, it will be within the next month and a half because the next meeting of the Federal Reserve will be decisive in determining whether we are in a recession or not.

If we don't get good rallies, it will be difficult to see 30,000 in the near term.

Off topic, why do the pictures appear to me under "bitcointalk.org image proxy invalid image," but when I try to reply to the topic and go down, they appear to me?

cryptomaniac_xxx

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^^ Others say it's $13k as the final capitulation. But I thought that $20k might be the last one, but who knows. Market conditions is worst than we expect in the beginning. We do know that the bear market will come, but it was very quick unlike 2018.

And so we are just entering the 6th month of the year and this is already want we are seeing. So it's really possible that we might have to see lower than $20k this year.

Falconer

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Quote from: Oshosondy on June 16, 2022, 05:08:48 AM

If I remember vividly, bitcoin increased above $30000 during bull market, it reduced to $30000 or around $29800 which always triggered another bull market. Even Chinese FUD crashed the price to $30000, it later increased again and reach all-time-high of $69000. The market was increasing and decreasing but $30000 was the strongest support, but that is during the bull market. When the bulls gone bears, it became otherwise. This year is not for the bulls but but the bears.

When the price falled recently first time below $30000, what happened was very different which did not happen during the bull market, it falled to almost $26000. The reason $30000 is never a strong support again and can not even be considered as support as the price is even falling again below $30000 many times. If I meant $30000 is never a strong support, I am not talking anymore about the bull market period which we are no more at now, we are in the bear period, my analyses is about the bear period and not the bull period, $30000 was not a strong support since like 2 months ago, it became the resistant level which have signalled more bear market. Bitcoin did not that stay above $30000 when it always falled back below $30000 after the crashed from $37500.

Now the market trend has turned bearish, it's actually been more than 7 months but no one knows for sure $20K is back to its low point. $30K is resistance while $20K is the closest support to survive the panic.

I'm starting to think that bitcoin might drop to new levels again in the next few months and it looks like $15K is another down trend target. But if $20K is strong enough, then we can expect a rebound which will put $20K as a low point for the next ATH cycle.

Oshosondy

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Therefore, it is definitely wrong to say that the $30,000 support was not strong. Try for the last 5 years to find the same strong support levels that have held for more than a year.

If I remember vividly, bitcoin increased above $30000 during bull market, it reduced to $30000 or around $29800 which always triggered another bull market. Even Chinese FUD crashed the price to $30000, it later increased again and reach all-time-high of $69000. The market was increasing and decreasing but $30000 was the strongest support, but that is during the bull market. When the bulls gone bears, it became otherwise. This year is not for the bulls but but the bears.

When the price falled recently first time below $30000, what happened was very different which did not happen during the bull market, it falled to almost $26000. The reason $30000 is never a strong support again and can not even be considered as support as the price is even falling again below $30000 many times. If I meant $30000 is never a strong support, I am not talking anymore about the bull market period which we are no more at now, we are in the bear period, my analyses is about the bear period and not the bull period, $30000 was not a strong support since like 2 months ago, it became the resistant level which have signalled more bear market. Bitcoin did not that stay above $30000 when it always falled back below $30000 after the crashed from $37500.

Oshosondy

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Quote from: Symmetrick on June 15, 2022, 01:55:49 PM

Now, according to many metrics and historical data, it shows that this is already the denouement of the current bearish trend and soon we will have recovery and accumulation phases, but on the other hand, the same thing seemed to happen around 30,000, and in the end, another bottom was presented. On the other hand, bitcoin only lost 70% of its value, and the last total crypto winters were accompanied by a loss of 85% of the value, so there is still room to fall, but it would be nice if this fall was a wick.

What I noticed when bitcoin was at $30000 was that the support at $30000 was never very strong, even bitcoin did not falled just to $30000, it falled from over $37000 in just a week if I am right to $26500. It increased back above $30000 and falled back below the price again. $30000 was never a good support as bitcoin kept falling down below the price repeatedly. Some people called it support but it was more of a resistance.

For now I can see a strong support at $20000, bitcoin has gone almost to $20000 in the last 24 hours and has not falled below $20000. I see this more as a strong support unlike when bitcoin was heavily fluctuating above and below $30000. It is still possible that bitcoin may fall below $20000, but strong support has been established for now and it may not happen soon.

But I still do not think crypto market generally can be bullish this year again, I have hope next year and the following year after the next than this year.

Symmetrick

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