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easiest answer is this
forget where the price is right now

and think about the cheapest region on the planet where someone can acquire bitcoin at the cheapest price
AKA the most efficient mining asic in the cheapest electric region
call that point (a)

then do the opposite. the most expensive mining cost on the planet
call that point (b)

realise because no one can get bitcoin below (a).. if/when the price comes down close to (a) everyone that has acquisition costs above that price all the way to (b) will be extremely happy to buy.
the closer to (a) it gets the more people are then interested in buy and less interested in selling which helps the price not come al the way down to (a)

and if everyone can mine at or below (b) then no one sees the need or has desire to pay a premium by buying above (b) so the amount of buying power fizzles out.
and obviously alot of peope are profiting so alot willing to sell the nearer to (b) it gets which also tops out before getting to (b) when there are not enough buyers for the sellers

at this moment the a-b window is a gap of 6.3x
meaning if the price sat at (a) the price can bubble 6.3x of (a) before hitting (b)

at the last ATH
point b was around the $75k

this year its still below $100k so i dont imagine it bubbling above 100k unless the mining competition ramps up and the mining costs increases to change the window upwards soon

..
but looking at the previous bubbles (2013, 2017 2021)
bitcoins price before asics came out in late 2013 was 13-230 (16.6x)
bitcoins price due to asics coming out in late 2013 was 230-1200 (4.3)

the 2017 was about a 4k to $20k (4x)
the 2021 was about a $25k to $70k (under 3x)
the 2021 was about a $25k to $70k (under 3x)

then more recently the window of cheapest came down by 2x (~$13k min mining cost(a)) but can possibly reach the 90's range, this the over 6x

so stats show we probably wont see a 16x again like the 2011 2013 events
and from math and logic of many factors the bubble window may become shorter in the future, but the only way to know is to experience it. no one can truly predict the future


there is a bubble every cycle and a correction to a new raise bottom
2011 had one b(b)32 (a)$4  (2009-2012 cycle)
2013 had one b(b)1200 (a)$250  (2012-2016 cycle)
2017 had one b(b)20k (a)$4k  (2016-2020 cycle)
2021 had one b(b)70k (a)$17k  (2020-20.. cycle)

where each cycle see a new raised low 4 250 4000 17000
so its not a gamble. its how deflation works
as for predicting the top and the timing of when the new ATH happens. well i gave a rough idea of how much at present(can change quick) but cant predict the when..
so those hoping for short term gains is a big gamble(6-12month)
so those hoping for long term gains is a good bet(2-4years)

Can these speculative bubbles go on forever? Or will they become smaller and smaller as market participants try to dump Bitcoin and take profits before it crashes? I think the recent bull market already showed that the market participants know that Bitcoin is not going to the moon with a plan to stay there, so it's more like a gambling game where people try to guess how high it will go before it crashes.

those who get excited by a price rise spike. are those ready to exit
they are not bitcoiners they are fiat lovers who cant wait to get out of btc

those who advertise altnets as solutions to things. are not bitcoiners either

bitcoiners want low onchain fee's and expanding the bitcoin utility onchain to allow more daily use
anyone who just says bitcoin wont/cant scale and that bitcoin is not fit for purpose is not a bitcoiner
anyone who says people should not use bitcoin as is, but instead should lock value up and then use some other service/net/option, is not a bitcoiner

we get cycles of these people. getting excited about some new option to exit bitcoin with. either its the price to exit to fiat. or a new code option to exit bitcoin to some altnet

It just goes to show that even institutional investors with loads amount of money, whether borrowed or not, are just human as well. They are also guided by emotional decisions and human error. But that should have nothing to do with the objective view on Bitcoin's current, past or future value, nor its future potential. Its just sheep following other sheep.

Although you do really have to ask yourself what the point is in making such superficial investments in the first place? Do they truly understand why Bitcoin is great or are they all just trusting each other because the other took a risk and invested into BTC?

Never underestimate the stupidity of rich people. And do not become infected with their panic-selling.

Luna, that made the biggest contribution, was probably the biggest scam someone pulled on crypto investors for a long while. Not that people who bought Luna and were tattooing it on their bodies weren't to blame.

In short, Kwon made an altcoin and profited from it, like many other people with their altcoins, starting from the LTC era. Then he put those profits into BTC knowing that it's a safer bet than holding his own coin. Also by buying his own coin he'd look like a pumper so he bought another coin and made that public to indirectly pump Luna and it worked. What he didn't foresee was that his coin has a vulnerability and we all know how it went from there but the plan of pumping Luna with BTC was a scam from the start in my opinion and he wasn't planning to hold BTC. He was ready to dump it at some point and probably exit with all the money but went bust instead because the collapse took him by surprise.

It's not much different from what Musk did with a small difference. Musk profited from his pump and dump.

I'd argue that the people you call supporters were trying to make money. It was never about supporting anything. Only miners are acting somewhat fair here and want bitcoin to grow. They'd rather hold, but when the price goes below their operational costs they have no other choice. Many of them have loans so it's a choice of sell or go bankrupt.

This is not new but this bear market is raising a question that whether Bitcoin will break that ~ 80% down from its all time high in a next bear market.

That shows on Google Trend that has many bias factors. The 2020 bull run did not see too much hype from retail investors if we use Google Trend to judge it. I think it is somewhat correct and the collapse of Terra, Celsius, Voyager, etc. are very good evidence that 2020 bull run happened with main reason for this was the hype of institutional investors. They over leveraged, over gambled and boosted the market up a lot.

Barring major events all economies are cycles. BTC is no different. We here keep going around and around on the same subject. There are a lot of different views on it as to why and where on the cycle we are but in the end no matter if it's BTC or housing or other commodities not much changes. BTC is a bit different but that does not make it immune from the same cycles.

With the above being said, I do think it's going to be an interesting time for the next 12 to 18 months. I can see a long steady growth instead of the massive climb that was 2021. But, fast or slow bumpy or flat lines it's still a cycle.

-Dave

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