Topic: 交易量下降是否意味着比特币牛市来临？ (Read 2101 times)

感觉不靠谱

也说明市场里没有钱了

不一定，只是市场现在还处于迷茫的状态

感觉不靠谱

楼主有见地

学习到了！~

感觉我要悲剧了

悲哀之处。。希望有天比特币能脱离这个怪圈。。

确实，离牛市还远。期待横盘

对比特币有信心，不等牛市也不怕熊市

感觉不靠谱

求科普一下

感觉不靠谱

和这么多土豪在一个屋子里，我都不敢说话

熙熙攘攘，皆为利往！

比特币又不是股市，为什么总要用股市的思考方式来分析呢

是的 等着吧 就凭这么简单的一点判断牛市是不是来临 那么说这话的不是别用用意就是投资小白 挂多响亮的名头都没用

我不知道这位说的很厉害的分析家到底什么来头 但是就目前的比特币走势 是不可能进入牛市的 就算说量也才缩这么点时间 不具备多大的参考意义

希望牛市尽快到来，站在山顶不胜寒冷

哈哈，我也觉得牛市要来了

市场萎缩，牛市不一定啊！只能等咯

是的 一定的 等着吧

坐等牛市到来。

慢慢等待牛市。。。。

熊市？牛市？反正现在跌也跌不下去，麻木了

意味着观望气氛很浓 需要暴跌解决问题

意味着观望气氛很浓啊 要暴跌才能解决问题

恩，确实，同意

只是意味着熊市即将进入下一阶段 暴跌筑底的阶段了

跌还能跌到哪去啊。= =

不一定，可能是市场萎缩，恐慌蔓延，说不定会放量下跌

牛市吗？应该是熊市才对。

只要中国在比特币价格中起到举足轻重的地位，就不会来临，因为央行都不允许，随便涨一点就给你高出点事情

这次大级别的熊市 不到散户悲观失望 是不可能涨上去的

现在没人提牛市

真的有牛市？

只要大家还在讨论牛市，牛市就不会来。

意味着观望气氛很浓 还要继续跌

国外投资专家的技术分析，其中谈到中国政策对比特币的交易量影响很大，但是只是短期影响。还对现有数据进行了技术分析，现在的市场的冷清是牛市来临的预兆?

评论：一家之言，牛市也许就在大家意料之外的时候来临。

 

Does Bitcoin’s Falling Volume Herald A Bull Run?

AdminMay 11th, 20140 Comments »



What’s happened to bitcoin transaction volumes? Over the last month, the number of bitcoins changing hands has dropped considerably. In April, 109,932 bitcoins per day exchanged hands on average. That compares to 187,811 in March – a 41% drop.

This has continued a little into May. On 4th May, it sunk further still, with just 52,042 bitcoins changing hands in a day. Bitcoin has been lower than this before, but not for a while. This chart shows that it only dipped below this figure three times in 2014 – twice in April and once in March. Before that, trading volume hadn’t been this low since 2011. What’s going on?

Bitcoin hasn’t seen transaction volumes this low in a while.

Gil Luria, managing director at Wedbush Securities, an equities firm that tracks the bitcoin market, said:

“If I was to narrow down to one factor, I would say China. If we talk about the ascent of bitcoin last year, it would be down to unencumbered growth with China.”

If bitcoin’s fortunes rested heavily on the increasing role of China-based participants in the market, then no wonder volume is falling, given the turmoil there, and its chilling effect on bitcoin.

The China Syndrome
Industrial and Commercial Bank of China (ICBC) became the latest bank to block bitcoin in China this week, following a string of others that have done the same. All of this has led up to a publicised but unofficial prohibition deadline of 10th May, allegedly imposed by the People’s Bank of China (PBOC), by which date banks should have officially made a statement on the issue. China’s media ban of the Beijing-based Global Bitcoin Summit is the latest in a long line of aggressive moves against the cryptocurrency.

That would certainly tie into the falling volume in bitcoin transactions. China currently makes up 7% of all bitcoin exchange volume. Exchange volume in China is apparently a little muddy, following allegations of faked volume figures by some Chinese exchanges.

Does this signal a failing enthusiasm for bitcoin? The community certainly seems to be trying to raise awareness, the way that many communities do when it wants to bolster its message: sports. One kickboxing event was rapidly followed by another, and now, people are floating the idea of UFC sponsorships. Anything to get bitcoin into the spotlight.

China’s role in bitcoin may be deflating by the day, but this is unlikely to affect transaction volumes in the long term, said Luria. “The success of bitcoin will happen regardless of China,” he argued.

“The impact is only a short term trading impact. If there are disruptive businesses that emerge out of these technologies, then whether China participates is its own issue.”

Follow The Numbers
China may have something to do with bitcoin’s price, but some people prefer not to look at the markets. Walter Zimmerman is chief technical analyst for United-ICAP, an energy trading advisory firm which also tracks bitcoin. He relies on chart data, rather than political and economic events, when it comes to developing trading strategies.

Zimmernan argues that we’re nearing the end of a downward price movement, which explains the volume drop-off. He said:

“There should be a drop off in volume in the latter stages of a falling wedge pattern.”

By relying on price movements for its intelligence, technical analysis hopes to be able to predict market movements more effectively. It’s a long-established method of market analysis, although fundamentals analysis and technical analysis are like competing religions in finance – followers of one discipline rarely have much time for the other.

The falling wedge is an inverse triangle, created as a price progressively falls. As they fall, prices bounce up and down, reaching upper and lower limits before reversing, but the general trend is downward. The lower and upper lines bounding these limits are called support and resistance lines, respectively.

This chart (produced by CoinDesk but mirroring one provided by Zimmerman) shows this downward falling wedge starting around bitcoin’s height, just after December, and continuing until now.



Speaking to CoinDesk earlier in the week, he thought it was about to break out of this cycle and embark on an upward trajectory.

“The price gets further away from the falling wedge support line and spends more time up against the falling wedge resistance line. Instead of bouncing up and down, the market becomes tracked to resistance,” he said, arguing that this is what has happened in the last half of April (see red bracket in our chart).

Challenges For Technical Analysis
Not everyone is a believer in technical analysis. Common criticisms are that you can draw the lines any way you like, and so fudge the picture to fit a theory, especially if you look at different time periods to find your trends (see the first comment in this thread on falling wedges in bitcoin). But Zimmerman maintains that it’s a solid theory, and said that he always looks across an asset’s entire history before plotting his lines.

The other worry about using technical analysis for bitcoin is that it isn’t a particularly liquid asset. Events like China’s cooling towards the currency, or Mt Gox’s collapse, naturally cause big fluctuations in price. Zimmerman claimed:

“I have no qualms with looking at relatively illiquid markets, because in a reversal of expectations I have found that time and again, it’s these quiet little markets that hardly anyone knows about, where the high frequency trading hasn’t penetrated yet; where you’re likely to find the most perfect technical patterns.”

Many readers will take umbrage at any description of bitcoin as a ‘quiet little market’, but it is worth remembering its characteristics, which set it apart from many others. In particular, it may be labelled a cryptocurrency, but for many people, it’s still an investment asset, and with the market falling, people may be holding bitcoins in the hope of a rally.

“There should be a drop off in volume in the latter stages of a falling wedge pattern.”

The likelihood is that both China, and market sentiment, are contributing to the downturn in volume. That also suggests that it’ll be a temporary blot on the bitcoin landscape.

Statements in this article should not be considered investment advice, which is best sought directly from a qualified professional.

Read more at http://bitcoinnewsbrief.com/blog/2014/05/11/does-bitcoins-falling-volume-herald-a-bull-run/#RVGjA6tWOr73AQo2.99

本文固定链接: 三个硬币 | http://www.3-coin.com/2014-05-12/1610/