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Ron~Popeil

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Quote from: NUFCrichard on March 18, 2015, 01:26:24 PM

Quote from: Ron~Popeil on March 18, 2015, 01:16:55 PM

I would love to see 20 dollar oil. Low energy cost can bring about a boom due to funds being freed up for other uses. Transportation costs also drop so consumer goods would be cheaper as well.

Look at the strength of the dollar to see where oil will go. If the dollar continues to rise oil will get cheaper.

Oil will not go down to $20. It costs far more than $20 to extract a barrel of oil from the ground, especially in America with all the frackers.
Essentially only a few cheap and easy play remain viable long term at $20 a barrel, it would be below the historical low prices and cannot be maintained.

The price of gasoline has been steadily rising recently in America, figure that one out, so that won't be helping the economy. Demand will also rise if gas prices fall, so expect a sharp rise when production falls and demand rises.

There will always be counter pressures on price movement regardless of direction. I would love to see it drop to $20 but I don't expect it. The dollar would have to rise dramatically for that to happen. A stronger dollar and lower energy costs are a great thing for any economy so while I don't expect it I would love to see it.

Agestorzrxx

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Activity: 462

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Quote from: maku on March 18, 2015, 04:46:44 PM

Quote from: vvv8 on March 18, 2015, 03:14:32 PM

Russia and China are not going to disarm due to a lack of funds lol... Why on Earth would you think something insane like that?

There are too many special & powerful interests' that will make sure the U.S stays in its current position.

We live in an age where technology is a weapon and guess who owns patents, and produces the best technology?

If they are always 10 steps ahead of you, how can you remove or topple them ? JMHO

China is already number 1 economy in the world. And guess what China does the best? Steal patents and does not care about international copyright law.
If you have something good they will steal it and implement it in their toys. So why work hard and research when you just simply borrow everything?

No, China is not the number 1 economy in the world.
Yes, The patents protection is awful in China, it resist innovation, we can't copy everything, it's not a good thing.

vvv8

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Activity: 420

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Yeah I think another war is imminent. The drums have been sounded for some time now, all you gotta do is turn on some T.V:)

GreenStox

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Undeads.com - P2E Runner Game

Quote from: vvv8 on March 18, 2015, 02:59:35 PM

There's no way they will heavily cut military spending and/or close bases and retreat. If they do that many governments will collapse and there will be a power vacuum the size of 100 elephants' anuses put together

Yep, especially now since the tensions with Russia and Syria are getting big.

Also they are not thinking about cutting other social(ist) spending aswell, pension, government worker salary, education,etc.

The deficit hole is getting bigger and bigger, so they will need to invade again to loot some country.

Probably Venezuela since it has oil.

Quote from: maku on March 18, 2015, 04:46:44 PM

Quote from: vvv8 on March 18, 2015, 03:14:32 PM

Russia and China are not going to disarm due to a lack of funds lol... Why on Earth would you think something insane like that?

There are too many special & powerful interests' that will make sure the U.S stays in its current position.

We live in an age where technology is a weapon and guess who owns patents, and produces the best technology?

If they are always 10 steps ahead of you, how can you remove or topple them ? JMHO

China is already number 1 economy in the world. And guess what China does the best? Steal patents and does not care about international copyright law.
If you have something good they will steal it and implement it in their toys. So why work hard and research when you just simply borrow everything?

I dont agree with patent laws, its bogus and monopolistic. Copyright, trademark and trade secrets are ok for intellectual property, but patents are just monopolistic and there are million things that can go wrong, like in the 1800's where thief inventors steal eachother's invention...

Also trade secrets should be kept secret, industrial espionage is not nice, and that should be heavily punished, but these patent laws in itself are really useless...

maku

legendary

Activity: 1288

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Quote from: vvv8 on March 18, 2015, 03:14:32 PM

Russia and China are not going to disarm due to a lack of funds lol... Why on Earth would you think something insane like that?

There are too many special & powerful interests' that will make sure the U.S stays in its current position.

We live in an age where technology is a weapon and guess who owns patents, and produces the best technology?

If they are always 10 steps ahead of you, how can you remove or topple them ? JMHO

China is already number 1 economy in the world. And guess what China does the best? Steal patents and does not care about international copyright law.
If you have something good they will steal it and implement it in their toys. So why work hard and research when you just simply borrow everything?

vvv8

member

Activity: 420

Merit: 10

Quote from: ?? on ??

Quote from: vvv8 on March 18, 2015, 02:59:35 PM

There's no way they will heavily cut military spending and/or close bases and retreat. If they do that many governments will collapse and there will be a power vacuum the size of 100 elephants' anuses put together

You mean like the French Revolution, Solonion Athens, and every other descent to mob rule?

The US seems to be on an excellent track to following EU. Russia & China will only disarm for lack of funds as their recessions take on speed and magnitude. In fact, China's turned to selling instead of procuring.

Russia and China are not going to disarm due to a lack of funds lol... Why on Earth would you think something insane like that?

There are too many special & powerful interests' that will make sure the U.S stays in its current position.

We live in an age where technology is a weapon and guess who owns patents, and produces the best technology?

If they are always 10 steps ahead of you, how can you remove or topple them ? JMHO

vvv8

member

Activity: 420

Merit: 10

Quote from: GreenStox on March 18, 2015, 02:05:46 PM

Quote from: ?? on ??

The US will step over the dead to reach the summit as it always does.

Technology and household income are the beneficiaries.

Yes they are in the short term, but all the mal-investment in the oil sector will be lost as the mainstream media is the most unreliable investment advisor out there. If the bubble burts those investors will lose all their money, and the workers in the oil sector will lose all their jobs.

Quote from: ?? on ??

QE would be almost as stupid as raising rates which it looks like they almost suicidally will do despite the deflation that should linger for most of 2015 and possibly into 2016 at this rate.

There simply currently is not enough cash in the developed world. This explains the other half of the cryptocurrency industry's collapse.

Japan has inflationary erectile dyfunction, which is a stupid policy and probably hurting their economy anyways.

The US & EU will only have problems if they can't soak back up the bank reserves by not selling their long-term holdings at a discount; otherwise, they will merely continue with their socialist malaise.

If they don't raise the rates then they cant do it in the future ever, actually they already passed the event horizon, the debt is too big, if they raise rates, they go bankrupt, if they don't they go in hyperinflation (slowly), dragging all the reserve-holders in it aswell. If BRICKS drop the USD, then it will be even faster.

The only way out of this mess for the USA is to cut the military spending to Switzerlands's military size, and all their social spending too on those shady spying stuff and do a benefit to the world.

Also then they can switch to gold standard, and improve their currency, and in a deflationary system you don't need pensions, so they can drop that too.

So in 1 world, libertarianism can save them...

BUT

Ofcourse they won't do that, they are now preparing to attack Syria and Venezuela, so the war machine continues...

There's no way they will heavily cut military spending and/or close bases and retreat. If they do that many governments will collapse and there will be a power vacuum the size of 100 elephants' anuses put together

GreenStox

sr. member

Activity: 1148

Merit: 252

Undeads.com - P2E Runner Game

Quote from: ?? on ??

The US will step over the dead to reach the summit as it always does.

Technology and household income are the beneficiaries.

Yes they are in the short term, but all the mal-investment in the oil sector will be lost as the mainstream media is the most unreliable investment advisor out there. If the bubble burts those investors will lose all their money, and the workers in the oil sector will lose all their jobs.

Quote from: ?? on ??

QE would be almost as stupid as raising rates which it looks like they almost suicidally will do despite the deflation that should linger for most of 2015 and possibly into 2016 at this rate.

There simply currently is not enough cash in the developed world. This explains the other half of the cryptocurrency industry's collapse.

Japan has inflationary erectile dyfunction, which is a stupid policy and probably hurting their economy anyways.

The US & EU will only have problems if they can't soak back up the bank reserves by not selling their long-term holdings at a discount; otherwise, they will merely continue with their socialist malaise.

If they don't raise the rates then they cant do it in the future ever, actually they already passed the event horizon, the debt is too big, if they raise rates, they go bankrupt, if they don't they go in hyperinflation (slowly), dragging all the reserve-holders in it aswell. If BRICKS drop the USD, then it will be even faster.

The only way out of this mess for the USA is to cut the military spending to Switzerlands's military size, and all their social spending too on those shady spying stuff and do a benefit to the world.

Also then they can switch to gold standard, and improve their currency, and in a deflationary system you don't need pensions, so they can drop that too.

So in 1 world, libertarianism can save them...

BUT

Ofcourse they won't do that, they are now preparing to attack Syria and Venezuela, so the war machine continues...

GreenStox

sr. member

Activity: 1148

Merit: 252

Undeads.com - P2E Runner Game

Guys, the oil collapse saved their greedy arses for now, however in the long term that will be disruptive for US oil businesses that employ millions of people.

So yes the nearly purchasing power increase will be hidden by the real problems of more job losses when the oil sector implodes.

So they will just do QE4 to prop up the oil price once again, that is inevitable. So say goodbye to rate hike, and embrace the upcoming hyperinflation worldwide...

Starring: Japan and Greece , *grabs popcorn*

NUFCrichard

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Quote from: Ron~Popeil on March 18, 2015, 01:16:55 PM

I would love to see 20 dollar oil. Low energy cost can bring about a boom due to funds being freed up for other uses. Transportation costs also drop so consumer goods would be cheaper as well.

Look at the strength of the dollar to see where oil will go. If the dollar continues to rise oil will get cheaper.

Oil will not go down to $20. It costs far more than $20 to extract a barrel of oil from the ground, especially in America with all the frackers.
Essentially only a few cheap and easy play remain viable long term at $20 a barrel, it would be below the historical low prices and cannot be maintained.

The price of gasoline has been steadily rising recently in America, figure that one out, so that won't be helping the economy. Demand will also rise if gas prices fall, so expect a sharp rise when production falls and demand rises.

Ron~Popeil

sr. member

Activity: 406

Merit: 250

I would love to see 20 dollar oil. Low energy cost can bring about a boom due to funds being freed up for other uses. Transportation costs also drop so consumer goods would be cheaper as well.

Look at the strength of the dollar to see where oil will go. If the dollar continues to rise oil will get cheaper.

picolo

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Merit: 500

Quote from: ChicagoSchooler on February 21, 2015, 03:54:30 PM

Since the collapse of oil has killed inflation, putting it well below the Fed's 2% target, I'm voting that they'll delay to 2016.

The las FOMC shows they won't raise rates soon.

polynesia

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Quote from: Hazir on March 06, 2015, 05:18:43 PM

Quote from: polynesia on March 05, 2015, 07:11:15 PM

We have experienced bitcoin's volatility.
Oil is relatively more stable. It has been quite some time since we have seen $20/barrel.

Oil 'was' considered stable. Then huge drop happened last year and now it is unknown for us if oil will regain its previous price of around $100.

It is all in relative terms.
There have been oil shocks as well, with the price increasing rapidly.
The current fall is something new.

tabnloz

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I think oil will hover around 60 for the next 6 months pending the strategy of OPEC. I don't think the US will, or can, raise rates. The 'recovery' is largely illusory and any growth is achieved by pruning or by theft from other nations.

They only way I see a raise is to stop a large inflow seeking perceived safety (maybe a geopolitical event like Grexit, war etc). At this stage the game might very well be up and its every country for themselves.

johnyj

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Beyond Imagination

Actually I think they will raise the rate to a very high level, since there will never be a liquidity crisis in the foreseeable future. Now banks are sitting on a mountain of cash that is enough for the future 30 years, and those cash will earn them huge amount of interest in a high rate environment

So, when higher rates kill the expansion for normal business, it generated huge income for banking class, so the one that is most benefited from a higher rate is banks. They will become the major spender and driver for economy

Hazir

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★Nitrogensports.eu★

Quote from: polynesia on March 05, 2015, 07:11:15 PM

We have experienced bitcoin's volatility.
Oil is relatively more stable. It has been quite some time since we have seen $20/barrel.

Oil 'was' considered stable. Then huge drop happened last year and now it is unknown for us if oil will regain its previous price of around $100.

okthen

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I'd say they'll delay it to 2016, we're already in 2015 and it's still not clear where the whole oil crisis is going.

manselr

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I think for now it's too early to tell. The fed likely won't touch rates until summer anyway, and quite a bit can happen in the intervening months. If the economy gets worse they'll probably keep rates as-is. But if it keeps plodding along at the current pace, they might set the rates to 1/4%, just so they can officially lift off from zero.

polynesia

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Quote from: KaliLinux on March 04, 2015, 04:48:38 PM

Quote from: ChicagoSchooler on February 21, 2015, 03:54:30 PM

Since the collapse of oil has killed inflation, putting it well below the Fed's 2% target, I'm voting that they'll delay to 2016.

We are not heading to $20 dollars a barrel this is the same kind of statement like bitcoin is going to $10,000 or $1 they are just not happening lol

Keep up the good work the fed i have 0 interest in these are the biggest scammers in history

We have experienced bitcoin's volatility.
Oil is relatively more stable. It has been quite some time since we have seen $20/barrel.

KaliLinux

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Quote from: ChicagoSchooler on February 21, 2015, 03:54:30 PM

Since the collapse of oil has killed inflation, putting it well below the Fed's 2% target, I'm voting that they'll delay to 2016.

We are not heading to $20 dollars a barrel this is the same kind of statement like bitcoin is going to $10,000 or $1 they are just not happening lol

Keep up the good work the fed i have 0 interest in these are the biggest scammers in history

Hazir

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★Nitrogensports.eu★

Interesting diagram. And to be honest I think current low oil prices are only beginning of further drops but definitely not to $20 per barrel. More like $40 in my opinion is max price drop than could happen.

polynesia

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Crude collapsing towards $20?
That doesn't look like happening any time soon.

Allurestorm

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there is too much debt in the US and if the FED raises rates it will surely burst the stock bubble and probably start a new recession. If you read their statements they don't say that they are going to raise rates..they say they may start THINKING of raising rates, which means they are not even considering a rate rise for now..

Erdogan

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Rates will not rise until the market tears the whole thing apart.

Amph

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before the btc halving imho

johnyj

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Beyond Imagination

Quote from: ?? on ??

The money is technically at deposit by the commercial banks at the Fed. They can't loan them out because the creditworthy aren't demanding, and they aren't supplying the uncreditworthy.

With that large of an increase in the supply of money, an inflation would normally be expected, but velocity dropping to record lows prevented it.

People are tapped out after foolishly selling at the bottom of a housing collapse, taking most families source of net worth and transferring it to hedge funds. It's the stock market's turn to make us think we're richer than we really are. We should be hearing more of that over the next few years.

People were forced into default, and that was planned, to transfer the house ownership to banks, and then central banks print some money to buy it to support the house value

Anyway all those money are created out of nothing, it is a race between banks playing more tricks and people finally realizing the scam and abandon the currency like what happened in Mississippi bubble. But unlike during Mississippi bubble, now there is no gold convertibility, it is difficult to discredit fiat money at this stage

NUFCrichard

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Oil isn't going to $20 (you can quote me on that). America will keep pumping the old wells but investment has fallen so much already that production is already bound to fall.
People talk abut efficiency savings, that is marginal and overcome by a growth in population.

I expect $100 oil within the next 2 years, it might not stay that high, but I think it will reach that high.

atlosas

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How long do you think till new crysis when they raise the rates?

johnyj

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Beyond Imagination

Small adjustment like interest rate is irrelevant now, the base money supply has increased by 500% since 2008. If GDP increase 5% per year, it will take about 30 years to reach that amount of money supply, and they have done it in 6 years, so they will not need to print money for the next 24 years, is that possible?

Since all of those money is already in the hands of commercial banks, we could imagine that there would be huge inflation due to 5x more money out there, but there was no inflation. This indicated that no matter how much money they print, money just can't get into the economy in any meaningful way. In fact banks have raised the criteria to get a loan, and the real income of the whole society is going down due to less loan and less consumption

Now people's mindset have changed to saving, that will last for decades, and any tightening of money supply will trigger a recession for sure

lyth0s

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World Class Cryptonaire

Quote from: Philj on February 21, 2015, 04:01:03 PM

You forgot never, and NIRP

Well said. I also vote that they most likely will never increase rates by any reasonable amount (say > 3%) and we even stand a possibility of negative rates. The NIRP is expanding, get ready for it Tongue

Possum577

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Loose lips sink sigs!

I don't think the collapse of oil will have as much negative effect on rates as you may think. Cheaper oil frees up ordinary income to be used to buy things, which stimulates the economy. When the economy picks up the Fed will raise rates.

Q7

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I think the market has already priced in for a rate increase. It's just a matter of time that this happens.

Philj

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You forgot never, and NIRP

ChicagoSchooler

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