Topic: 0.618 fib retracement @ $48.5K achieved: Is this is the local top? (Read 322 times)

Indeed, I am comparing 2024 to 2019, as well as 2016 for that matter, both of which led to -40-50% corrections after 0.618 fib retracement was reached. One of which was a halving year, the other not, both of which had blow off tops after multi-month rallies. There's not a lot of difference here, apart from timing, which was actually different by an entire 12 months. Now we have done so in the middle of these two time-frames.

FYI the only reason I'm not comparing to 2020, which was a halving year and saw a -50%+ correction, is that it was a black swan events, and doesn't really fit with the fib retracement "narrative". But who's to say that after making another lower macro high, that price wouldn't have corrected -35% to -40% anyway? Looking back, I still think this was pretty likely, in order to return to previous volume support / accumulation levels.

Generally, just because price reached a blow-off style top (for now) 6 months later than usual, or 6 months earlier than usual, whoever you want to look at it, then I don't think this negates a pull-back whatsoever.


This is the problem, we are back in the 2019 market mentality of "we'll never go $10K again", "we'll never see $5K", whereas both happened, even if the latter was more of a "fluke". Whereas returning to see $30K is not only completely possible, but entirely reasonable, based on usual mid-cycle retracements. Even post-halving dare I say it, similar to 2016. All entirely possible right now, similar to $60K and new ATH.

It is you who seems to get me wrong, I never said that Bitcoin will not hit $49,000 or even higher levels than that again, all I said is that the cause won't be attributed to ETF again, or will it? What I carefully explained in my last post is that the ETF-related Bitcoin reaction has priced in already as far as Bitcoin is concerned, which is evident with the way the coin sold so well in weeks after the ETF approval. Nothing else is to be seen but the usual demand and supply of Bitcoin which often happened before the ETF, and this will continue to allow the normal market psychology and sentiment, ETF or not. Money will always be moved in and out of Bitcoin and this will also continue to cause the market to find the prevailing price to be at a given time which was what birthed the rest of my explanation.

We've actually moved past the ETF time, and anyone still relating the afterwards movement of Bitcoin to ETF is not well-informed about the situation unless people have started clearly investing directly into ETF packages, and also investing it in millions/billions. Nonetheless, the market focus is now on halving, and there will surely be pre-halving and post-having market activities, so FOMO might return to the market. So, for me, it is not about ETF anymore as the pre-halving market effect has happened regularly before in Bitcoin history in every 4-cycle. This also explains why Bitcoin will not fall so much and holds a bearish outlook for too long for now even if it tries to be pressured by strong negative bias.

The key factor here is "for now", because it is the current top, and we look like we are far away from it, but remember, within span of just 2 weeks, bitcoin broke both above 49k and under 40k as well. In fact, within three weeks, it has gone from 40k to 49k to 40k again.

So, do not think that reaching above 49k would be impossible for bitcoin, we could literally see 50k+ in a week if bitcoin were to go up, it is not unreal and it is not even that uncommon for bitcoin to go up like that. Don't get me wrong, I am not saying that it will be 50k+ in a week, I wouldn't know, I wouldn't even speculate such a thing, and I do not even believe that it will. However, I am 100% sure that it is a possibility, we should not leave that out of possible scenarios that could happen.

I don’t think Bitcoins will fall below 30k USD. I don’t have any strong evidence to support this statement, but it feels like this only. I know the price corrections will happen, but it won’t fall so deep in price. We might see Bitcoins hanging at 35-40k usd range and for me that’s fine. Moreover that will create an opportunity for us to buy these high valued coins in cheap.

For now, the peak hit by Bitcoin this year at a little above $49,000 will remain the ETF-associated peak in my opinion. The ETF time has been priced in already, and nothing significant can be attributed to it anymore unless we hear of some huge moves caused by it in favour of Bitcoin. After all the ETF has helped the coin to move significantly higher during the rumours, news, headlines and hypes associated with that triggered FOMO, I do not think more can be done by it anymore unless the market takes a breath lower as it is taking it now.

The correction is long overdue, and anything else that would happen will merely be for the pre and post-halving effects which we are of course getting very ready for. Also, with Bitcoin hesitant to move above the psychological level of $40,000 convincingly lately, not to mention the higher level of the 1D Fibo at $40,243, I so much believe that it is weak and will be further pressured to a lower level of $37,519 if the present condition subsist.

Just want to point out that you're comparing 2024 to 2019. Those are different years in the market cycle. The $13k to $6k downward drift part of the last market cycle was what happened last year when price went sideways/down from $31k to $25k for 6 months. Bitcoin always shoots up after it breaks out of the bottom of the market ending the bear market ($4k to $13k in 2019, lows $20,000s to $31k last year) and then it drifts sideways/down for roughly half a year. That's always the pattern, and that was last year. 2024 is the halving year, not the bear market ends year. Comparing different parts of the market cycle as though they are the same doesn't allow for good predictions.

But besides that, good job predicting the local top. We don't have to worry about what you are suggesting because, as i just pointed out, you're comparing it to the wrong year of the previous market cycle, but still you predicted a nice local top that will probably last for a good few weeks.

Just by watching your picture, I am not ready for bear again  . MA Death Cross and it is below Ichimoku Cloud both in my opinion act as price trend and both of them shows bearish

God what the heck is going On like in your previous post maybe January would be a black swan event but this bear happened after the SEC approved the bitcoin I just didn't get it.



This is daily chart the Fair Value Gap would be at 31.5 K god I don't want bitcoin touch this level 

the short term trend maybe bitcoin could be back at 35-37K level

This is certainly one way to look at it. The other would be that the market is trying to confirm $42K as new resistance, after previously using it as support. This after $43.5K old volume support, as well as flat/neutral 200 MA has already became new resistance. To me this still looks like textbook turning old support into new resistance as expected after such a bearish Weekly candle, with the key example being the 200 MA on this time-frame that previous supported price last month, but is now doing the opposite. Although obviously $40K need to break to further confirm that theory, or otherwise a break above $44K to invalidate it. The moving averages are all in bearish formation on the 4hr for the first time in 3 months, and the 50 Day MA has been broken, but obviously this still could be irrelevant / bear trap, even if also clear warning signs. My overall perspective is that it's up to the bulls to prove that the bull market is not over, as opposed to the bears to prove that the correction will continue, given that support is breaking/broken.



It's also the weakness within each bounce that is concerning. Bulls haven't even been able to push 5% higher after a 15% dump, which isn't very "bull market" like, but more dead cat bounce based. That said, all the bulls needs to do is close the week above above $44K previous closing high, and the bull market is still very much in tact. That also should be very easy, given the 0.618 retracement level (expected dead cat bounce) from current high to low is at $45.7K, so if this isn't possible, it's very concerning imo. Even in bear markets a 0.618 retracement after such a dump should be possible, unless there is extreme weakness.


On the Daily, I only see a very slanted bearish head and shoulders personally, that targets next level of volume support around $37K. Maybe I zoomed out too far?



Either way, this is certainly the moment of truth for the bulls. This is the first time testing support levels in 3 months. Otherwise, price will be drawn towards the magnet of volume support.

Looks like the $40K area held . We had lots of wicks on the daily in this large support area. We came close to $40K  psychological but didn’t actually break it which is good. Then we quickly rallied to $42K area.

If you zoom out it looks like a head and shoulders. I think we might head to $45-46K area and if we close as a wick then we might top out again, especially with all the GBTC that it is selling.

Indeed, best not to judge based on a Daily candle. Admittedly, my initially post was inspired by the dump on day of ETF launch, as I suspected that a dump would lead to a further correction, or otherwise that a pump would lead to continued highs. Ie, it would be the catalyst to set the short-term direction of the market, even though I didn't anticipate for price to dump so quickly and aggressively as it did.

Anyway, worth checking out the Weekly candle here, as referenced above, it's the worst gravestone / bearish wick since June 2019. 2021 candles don't even come close (based on the -10% bearish wick that is).


As a summary from recent posts, not referenced in OP, it's either support around $38K level (where there was previous consolidation) or we enter the volume gap between $31K and $37k (mind the gap). If price remains in an immediate bull market, and the current dump is a correction, then the recent support made will hold. Otherwise, the next level is $30K with little to nothing in between.


My rough estimate is around $40K for the havling, or soon after, that much seems clear to me, regardless of whether price dumps to $30K or even $20K, it's somewhat irrelevant. This would happily conclude GBTC selling, followed by increased confidence in ETFs (after a few months), and the obviousness of 50% less supply available. It's a full blown combination that within 6 months could melt faces with a new ATH before the end of the year. That much is clear to me. The next 4 months I remain however very sceptical about, with consolidation around $40K being the best case scenario, based on price history of 6 months leading into the halving; of which, this time-frame is usually one of the best times for dollar cost averaging prior to a bull market, due to a sustained correction or consolidation period. It's like my initial target of $48.5K throughout 2023: it seemed unrealistic and too optimistic, "overly bullish" I was told repeatedly. It was a few weeks late, but that was always the target for a dead cat bounce, and this month it was finally reached. Now to identify the inverse; being considered "overly bearish" and unrealistic and too pessimistic - as this is usually what Bitcoin does. It rekts the bears, rekts the bulls, rekts the bears, and repeats.

I was expecting 37k before the ETF get announced. Now the quantities bought should start increasing (+/- some weeks because of buffers/stashes).
I don't know about OP's 20-30k, for me 35k would be a bit under the comfort zone. Imho the ETF and the nearing halving should not allow going that low, but I am not that good at this. I also expect the month end at a small plus compared to 1 jan.

Imho before or at halving we should get above this number.

Iam a bit late voting sorry but its fairly clear as a local top.  A pin shape candle like that is classic top to a pattern not that I normally judge off one day in that manner but it does fit this time.
   We have above and below scenario, I think of it like ice lake (not a fixed scenario but important now) as an analogy.   We were above both a Fib level and 50 day average but below both now, expect weakness till this kind of failure is addressed.   It cant be said to be totally serious, its really just trading value flows in and out obviously with the news you have both pattern on a graph and a reason in stories for people to focus then take profits.

   I guess target 37k for the downside then maybe we can build from there, I dont know it's that neat or not.

$35k worst case scenario seems very optimistic to me, for me it'd be around $19K for a black swan event, otherwise around $23K where there is the Weekly Ichimoku cloud support. The 200 Day MA is priced $33.3K, so certainly finding support from $35K in the coming weeks (or even months) would be bullish in the immediate term, my main issue is that the level is in a low trade volume (between $31K and $37K). So although finding support from this important MA would clearly be bullish, the likelihood of doing so within a low volume area seems very unlikely to me. It's rare we see support from these areas.

On the Weekly long-term MA support is otherwise firmly around $30K. So even coming back down to this level could still be continuation of a bull trend. It seems many people aren't aware how low the support goes for a continuation of a bull market / recovery. To me the Daily-based support is failing, that of the 50 Day MA as well as cloud support (after 3 months being above), hence zooming out and returning to Weekly support seems completely reasonable. The main issue is that immediate support (that is breaking) and long-term support are very far apart right now, without much in between in my opinion. My best case scenario would be holding support around $38K where there was previous consolidation, and where the 20 Week MA will be in a few weeks, which would signal immediate bullish continuation on longer-term time-frames.

In the meantime, I's be surprised not to see a re-test of the bearish wick between $44K and $48K, which would be routine for Bitcoin prior to a trend change, but ultimately this only confirms how bearish price is if it can't even re-test resistance levels, or otherwise bounce from current support levels. For example, after the initial -10% dump, there is almost zero buying pressure what so ever.

Also think that bearish continuation might not be until next month, once there is a bearish Monthly candle close, to further confirm a trend change on shorter-term time-frames.


Makes sense. I think there is still too much optimism in the market, with most people thinking this is a short-term correction; unaware of the broader implications of breaking support levels that have been in place for the past 3 months. Ie, local top may well be in now. Hence there isn't as much shorting of the market as you might expect despite the -15%+ drop in price. Once the market is over-leveraged short and bearish, then a strong rebound becomes likely, as a reaction from around $38K seems somewhat inevitable. This would then be the setup to liquidate shorts by retesting the highs.

I did think this would happen soon after, from around $42K levels, but it could take another week or two it seems, similar to 2019. Either way, after the most bearish Weekly wick since June 2019 (worse than all of the 2021 bull market), the market will find a lot of sellers re-testing these highs. It's unlike any other bearish candles we've seen in years, ie not often we see such clear-cut bearish signals like this.

I am thinking what happens if we wick into the sub $40K psychological number and if we hold we will range for a few days and then we will most likely top at $45-47K and if we close as a wick on the weekly then this was the top. At least for a few months until the halving.

Many tops in the past usually had a failed high or some wick that went towards the ATH but closed below the ATH, usually implies that we are weak and we will start to head lower.

The best bet we should be back on the 0.5 fibbo and doing side away from top and 42K max but the bitcoin price now is at 41K level with a huge volume spike in MA 80.

so the worst-case scenario we might hit 35K to test last support zone.

Here is my view it



it could go higher from discount zone but we need to wait and see for now

Obvious gravestone Doji, so this was the top for now. Will test support at 32k, and later at 25k, which I believe is quite strong.

Personally, I sold the ETF launch once $48K was hit. I wasn't confident that it would even reach $48.5K at the time due to low volume, but alas there was a small pump for 30 minutes after the launch.


I assume you mean Monday for new weekly candle? But yes, agreed, if the candle ends in the red below $44K I'd consider it a massive sell signal for sure. Not just for a small correction either. However given how quickly price has retracted to $43K support, I wouldn't be surprised to see a rebound back to around $46K/$47K over the weekend, which if closing there would lead to a more neutral, even bullish, weekly candle.


Indeed. I did previously have sell orders around $50K for a while, but after seeing how many sell orders were piling up there I lowered to $48K (and glad I did). I did initially think price could wick as high as $55K prior to the launch, somewhere between $50K and $60K, but clearly this wasn't the case. Once the announcement arrived and price barely moved I had a feeling the launch would be a non-event as it were.

https://bitcointalksearch.org/topic/so-i-guess-we-sell-at-48626-5476436

Yeah I called this a month ago. I was hoping I would be wrong but it went exactly to that area and started to go down. I didnt even get a chance to sell because it was there for a few minutes and the mempool was clogged and I couldn't get my orders in time.

I think now we look at the weekly candle close and if it closes as a wick then its a local top. However its still early before Sunday hits until we get a new weekly candle. But if the weekly candle closes like in your graph above, its a massive sell signal.

Its also a perfect way to outrun the $50K spot sellers who had their orders in that area.

Just going to leave this chart here is an update, given that the week is currently turning bearish after reaching the 0.618 fib retracement level:



Even with a rebound back to resistance levels around $47K I'm struggling to have a bullish outlook for the immediate term. There was already the bearish divergences on most time-frames, which isn't much to acknowledge without any confirmation of downside price action, but today there has certainly been some confirmation. Based on Coinbase volume, this week is now the worst sell-off since 2022.

I feel that all we can hope for is a miracle right now. A strong rebound over the weekend back to resistance levels for a more neutral weekly candle, followed by a dose of hopium.

The fact that "maybe" is an option made me happy. I mean it does "look like" it's the top for the time being with a possibility of going much higher later on, I also still not feel sure about anything in the crypto world at any given moment.

I mean tomorrow SEC could say it's approved, and then suddenly bam 50k+ easily, maybe even 60k, or they could say it's rejected and bam! it's under 40k. So we really do not know, that is just a single example about ETF, there are many other things, like we could simply have some super rich person saying they bought a billion dollars worth of bitcoin, even if the act itself may not, the information could lead to many buying and make it go up. For the time being, it "should" be the top, but we don't know.

I guess this could be the problem; Bitcoin likes to take the path of maximum pain for speculators. In 2023 this was continued upside, as many took profits too early and others got liquidated shorting the price. Now the path of maximum pain would be a return to $30K support imo, or lower, now that many speculators still anticipate higher levels since the ETFs have launched. Personally I'd be happy to see $30K again within the next few months, followed by healthy consolidation around $40K leading into and after the halving. It seems like much of the market was under the impression that Bitocin was in a "never-ending" uptrend, or new bull market, but so far in it's history this has never been a thing prior to halving. Corrections always occur eventually, and when they do and the trend shifts from bullish to bearish, they are usually quite severe.

I was surprised that we haven't had a correction yet, but couldn't the ETF event have made a correction not possible, meaning we could see $42,000 as a minimum, considering that Bitcoin fees in the previous period were preventing a decline, now the increasing demand for Bitcoin due to ETF expectations leads to balancing the price.

I'm actually surprised that Bitcoin reached this level, because I was expecting a correction to happen much sooner, but now I kinda don't want to believe in major correction and hope that ETF and halvening hype will keep the corrections small and short while the up movements will be massive. Although the previous bull market was wild with unprecedented deep corrections, so this is on the table now too, but seeing below $30k again would be quite sad.

I think you’re probably right, but is it worth creating a taxable event to make the bet you’ll be able to buy back lower? The risk might not match the reward. Imagine having less after tax money to buy BTC at a higher price if you’re wrong…

If a pullback does happen, I would view it as an opportunity to purchase shares in one of the new ETFs inside a Roth IRA account.

I've been waiting for price to retrace to it's 0.618 fib retracement level for over a year now, since the $15.5K low, and finally today that target has been reached @ $48.5K as price (as of writing) has reached a peak of $48.9K. Notably in 2019 price went a little higher than it's expected retracement level of $13.3K, instead reached $13.8K, and nearly $14K on some exchanges, so further upside remains more than possible.



I hope I'm wrong, but personally I think this is the local top for now and price will correct 30-50% from here, to $25K to $35K $20K to $30K, which would also be completely normal after a 150% increase in 2023.  Bare in mind in 2019 price increased by 300%+ and corrected 50%+ from $13.8K level to $6.4K within about 5 months (covid crash aside). Ironically today is also the day the ETF launches, which I find far from a coincidence.

I'm not expecting a black swan event here, just the usual retracements / corrections after a parabolic run. In this case, something less severe than 2019 around $30K if I had to guess.