1 BTC = $3.6 million 1990 USDs in future‽

chri521

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Quote from: Geremia on April 11, 2015, 09:35:25 AM

Based upon the Gross World Product (GWP) and BTC's 21 million BTC controlled money supply, my prediction is that, once BTC becomes a truly global currency, it'll be worth 3.6 million 1990 USDs.

There is simply not enough demand and buying power in the world for bitcoins that will justify exchange range.
I know this is a speculation thread but these valuations are quite hilarious.

Biodom

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Quote from: Cconvert2G36 on April 11, 2015, 08:02:24 PM

Quote from: Biodom on April 11, 2015, 07:46:06 PM

Quote from: Cconvert2G36 on April 11, 2015, 07:28:07 PM

2.7 transactions per second, for nearly 8 billion people and their monetary affairs.

Something seems a bit off here.

this is tech..things change

Ken Olsen (DEC) in 1977: "There is no reason for any individual to have a computer in his home."
Bill Gates (1981, some argue that he did not say it):"640K [memory] ought to be enough for anybody."

The community tears itself apart by the mere suggestion of increasing to a 20MB block limit. Adding more ram to an individual machine is a much less contentious endeavor.

I'm not even saying that the protocol WON'T scale to a larger amount. Just that the idea of it replacing GWP is silly hyperbole. Hyperbole that could make some less informed rubes risk more than they can afford to Loose™.

Well, this is a Speculation area, so i like to see all kind of suggestions here, even those that look far-fetched.
I think that i get the benefit of bitcoin.
What i can't get is why 99% of the people don't see the benefits, and it remains a puzzle for me.
usage is most important, tech will follow

Cconvert2G36

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Quote from: Biodom on April 11, 2015, 07:46:06 PM

Quote from: Cconvert2G36 on April 11, 2015, 07:28:07 PM

2.7 transactions per second, for nearly 8 billion people and their monetary affairs.

Something seems a bit off here.

this is tech..things change

Ken Olsen (DEC) in 1977: "There is no reason for any individual to have a computer in his home."
Bill Gates (1981, some argue that he did not say it):"640K [memory] ought to be enough for anybody."

The community tears itself apart by the mere suggestion of increasing to a 20MB block limit. Adding more ram to an individual machine is a much less contentious endeavor.

I'm not even saying that the protocol WON'T scale to a larger amount. Just that the idea of it replacing GWP is silly hyperbole. Hyperbole that could make some less informed rubes risk more than they can afford to Loose™.

Biodom

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Activity: 3892

Merit: 4331

Quote from: Cconvert2G36 on April 11, 2015, 07:28:07 PM

2.7 transactions per second, for nearly 8 billion people and their monetary affairs.

Something seems a bit off here.

this is tech..things change

Ken Olsen (DEC) in 1977: "There is no reason for any individual to have a computer in his home."
Bill Gates (1981, some argue that he did not say it):"640K [memory] ought to be enough for anybody."

Cconvert2G36

sr. member

Activity: 392

Merit: 250

2.7 transactions per second, for nearly 8 billion people and their monetary affairs.

Something seems a bit off here.

orsotheysaid

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Quote from: americanpegasus on April 11, 2015, 10:20:49 AM

Quote from: Geremia on April 11, 2015, 09:35:25 AM

Based upon the Gross World Product (GWP) and BTC's 21 million BTC controlled money supply, my prediction is that, once BTC becomes a truly global currency, it'll be worth 3.6 million 1990 USDs.

This is fallacious reasoning.

If bitcoin is ever worth even ten percent of the GDP, it will quickly explode to be worth the entire GDP.

If bitcoin is worth the entire GDP, there is no logical reason for it to stop there. Humans are not rational creatures, and many variables and elements will cause the bitcoin universe to exceed the GDP by at least an order of magnitude.

Try $30 million dollars per bitcoin, in the end game. Of course this figure is prone to collapse at any time, depending on world conditions, just like current markets are.

If Bitcoin becomes a global force to store value, it will have money flowin in from all kinds of sources: Fiats, metals, stocks, other cryptos... theorically it can sustain literally everything, the only problem is getting people to get with the program and realize we need a bigger block size.

mikelitoris

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any day now...

Geremia

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Quote from: 1Referee on April 11, 2015, 02:54:20 PM

Bitcoin doesn't need to replace fiat.

What will replace it if/when fiat collapses?

1Referee

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Quote from: ensurance982 on April 11, 2015, 01:32:57 PM

It's a pipe dream. Bitcoin will never replace regular money, even if it was our biggest dream. The main question here is, what amount of M1/M2 money Bitcoin will replace, or rather, represent in the future! And I think the potential upside for this amount is pretty high, still. Also remember: The money invested in an asset is most often much smaller than the so called 'market cap' of that asset.

Bitcoin doesn't need to replace fiat. Not sure why people still think it will, but it definitely will not.

Bitcoin can perfectly function alongside any kind of fiat as being an optional payment method.

ensurance982

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Trust me!

It's a pipe dream. Bitcoin will never replace regular money, even if it was our biggest dream. The main question here is, what amount of M1/M2 money Bitcoin will replace, or rather, represent in the future! And I think the potential upside for this amount is pretty high, still. Also remember: The money invested in an asset is most often much smaller than the so called 'market cap' of that asset.

Geremia

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Quote from: americanpegasus on April 11, 2015, 10:20:49 AM

If bitcoin is ever worth even ten percent of the GDP, it will quickly explode to be worth the entire GDP.

How does that follow?

Geremia

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Quote from: NotHatinJustTrollin on April 11, 2015, 11:23:54 AM

Is being completely over-the-top delusional a thing in bitcoin now?

speculative ≠ delusional

Geremia

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Quote from: futureofbitcoin on April 11, 2015, 09:56:49 AM

why 1990?

Because that's a standard economists use to normalize the effects of inflation.

Quote from: futureofbitcoin on April 11, 2015, 09:56:49 AM

and why should bitcoin price match the gwp?

That's another question. All I'm saying is "if it does…".

NotHatinJustTrollin

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★Bitvest.io★ Play Plinko or Invest!

Is being completely over-the-top delusional a thing in bitcoin now?

I mean plenty of tardiness in bitcoin since forever, but this? Seriously?

1. Create new currency nobody really needs aside from drug dealers and a more nerdy version of gold bugs.
2. Limited supply™
3. Wait for it to become the world reserve currency cuz why not.
4. ? ? ? ?
5. Profit!!!!

abyrnes81

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Quote from: futureofbitcoin on April 11, 2015, 11:18:24 AM

Quote from: americanpegasus on April 11, 2015, 10:20:49 AM

Quote from: Geremia on April 11, 2015, 09:35:25 AM

Based upon the Gross World Product (GWP) and BTC's 21 million BTC controlled money supply, my prediction is that, once BTC becomes a truly global currency, it'll be worth 3.6 million 1990 USDs.

This is fallacious reasoning.

If bitcoin is ever worth even ten percent of the GDP, it will quickly explode to be worth the entire GDP.

If bitcoin is worth the entire GDP, there is no logical reason for it to stop there. Humans are not rational creatures, and many variables and elements will cause the bitcoin universe to exceed the GDP by at least an order of magnitude.

Try $30 million dollars per bitcoin, in the end game. Of course this figure is prone to collapse at any time, depending on world conditions, just like current markets are.

This is also fallacious reasoning. Just because humans are not always rational, doesn't mean that it will necessarily skew that way. How do you know people won't be irrational the other way around, and reject bitcoin? Or undervalue it?

In the first place, bitcoin shouldn't be compared to a portion of gdp because that isn't what it is.

In the next 50-100 years all the FIAT value will die, most probable because the people will start to think that them are not a valid "money" and they will start to issue their own money, because it is a right of everyone to issue his own money ___ isn't it? So you can't comparize 1 btc = 1**** dollars .. because 1 btc = 1 btc.

futureofbitcoin

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Quote from: americanpegasus on April 11, 2015, 10:20:49 AM

Quote from: Geremia on April 11, 2015, 09:35:25 AM

Based upon the Gross World Product (GWP) and BTC's 21 million BTC controlled money supply, my prediction is that, once BTC becomes a truly global currency, it'll be worth 3.6 million 1990 USDs.

This is fallacious reasoning.

If bitcoin is ever worth even ten percent of the GDP, it will quickly explode to be worth the entire GDP.

If bitcoin is worth the entire GDP, there is no logical reason for it to stop there. Humans are not rational creatures, and many variables and elements will cause the bitcoin universe to exceed the GDP by at least an order of magnitude.

Try $30 million dollars per bitcoin, in the end game. Of course this figure is prone to collapse at any time, depending on world conditions, just like current markets are.

This is also fallacious reasoning. Just because humans are not always rational, doesn't mean that it will necessarily skew that way. How do you know people won't be irrational the other way around, and reject bitcoin? Or undervalue it?

In the first place, bitcoin shouldn't be compared to a portion of gdp because that isn't what it is.

americanpegasus

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Quote from: Geremia on April 11, 2015, 09:35:25 AM

Based upon the Gross World Product (GWP) and BTC's 21 million BTC controlled money supply, my prediction is that, once BTC becomes a truly global currency, it'll be worth 3.6 million 1990 USDs.

This is fallacious reasoning.

If bitcoin is ever worth even ten percent of the GDP, it will quickly explode to be worth the entire GDP.

If bitcoin is worth the entire GDP, there is no logical reason for it to stop there. Humans are not rational creatures, and many variables and elements will cause the bitcoin universe to exceed the GDP by at least an order of magnitude.

Try $30 million dollars per bitcoin, in the end game. Of course this figure is prone to collapse at any time, depending on world conditions, just like current markets are.

futureofbitcoin

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why 1990? and why should bitcoin price match the gwp?

Geremia

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Based upon the Gross World Product (GWP) and BTC's 21 million BTC controlled money supply, my prediction is that, once BTC becomes a truly global currency, it'll be worth 3.6 million 1990 USDs.

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