10% BTC difficulty growth???? | Bitcointalksearch.org

crazyivan

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Quote from: Amph on April 03, 2015, 05:43:40 AM

Quote from: Minerjoe on April 01, 2015, 01:55:42 PM

Quote from: Minerjoe on March 30, 2015, 08:05:34 AM

I guess I was right, we are going down a bit. Under 7%.

Under 5% now. Let us see if we can go even lower.

i doubt, the price is rising now, +6 dollars, i think another little pump is incoming, diff should rise too

Diff will definitely rise this time. About the price, I m not so sure, we ve seen it so many times. After a small pump, there s profit skimming.
Still, mining s a long run ROI, so no point making short term assumptions.

Amph

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Quote from: Minerjoe on April 01, 2015, 01:55:42 PM

Quote from: Minerjoe on March 30, 2015, 08:05:34 AM

I guess I was right, we are going down a bit. Under 7%.

Under 5% now. Let us see if we can go even lower.

i doubt, the price is rising now, +6 dollars, i think another little pump is incoming, diff should rise too

crazyivan

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Quote from: alh on April 03, 2015, 01:51:12 AM

Quote from: crazyivan on April 03, 2015, 01:35:24 AM

You re gonna get a hear attack if you follow diff on a daily basis. My suggestion s to set up a cloud mining account somewhere and reinvest 60% of your payouts. Your ROI s gonna be about a year but you should be able to reach it in theory. Also, only choose cloud mining services where you can exit the market in case you do not like the outcome.

While I haven't followed the cloud mining market closely, is there a cloud mining service that has lasted one year on which to test this theory? My general take on cloud mining is that there are two risks: One if the usual risk associated with mining Bitcoins no matter what. The 2nd risk is that the cloud mining service just goes "POOF" and you are left with nothing besides the Bitcoin you have presumably shipped off to your wallet every month or so.

I can only suggest Hashnest and Bit-x. If you need more help with any of these, do let me know.

alh

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Quote from: crazyivan on April 03, 2015, 01:35:24 AM

You re gonna get a hear attack if you follow diff on a daily basis. My suggestion s to set up a cloud mining account somewhere and reinvest 60% of your payouts. Your ROI s gonna be about a year but you should be able to reach it in theory. Also, only choose cloud mining services where you can exit the market in case you do not like the outcome.

While I haven't followed the cloud mining market closely, is there a cloud mining service that has lasted one year on which to test this theory? My general take on cloud mining is that there are two risks: One if the usual risk associated with mining Bitcoins no matter what. The 2nd risk is that the cloud mining service just goes "POOF" and you are left with nothing besides the Bitcoin you have presumably shipped off to your wallet every month or so.

crazyivan

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DMD Diamond Making Money 4+ years! Join us!

You re gonna get a hear attack if you follow diff on a daily basis. My suggestion s to set up a cloud mining account somewhere and reinvest 60% of your payouts. Your ROI s gonna be about a year but you should be able to reach it in theory. Also, only choose cloud mining services where you can exit the market in case you do not like the outcome.

Minerjoe

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Quote from: Minerjoe on March 30, 2015, 08:05:34 AM

I guess I was right, we are going down a bit. Under 7%.

Under 5% now. Let us see if we can go even lower.

Minerjoe

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I guess I was right, we are going down a bit. Under 7%.

Searing

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Clueless!

Quote from: Minerjoe on March 30, 2015, 04:22:26 AM

Quote from: notlist3d on March 30, 2015, 02:50:20 AM

Quote from: Minerjoe on March 30, 2015, 02:46:26 AM

It seems to be slowing down a bit but this might be due to terrible Antpool luck in the last 12 hours.

Antpool was killing it just 24 hours ago and best profit in a while. But you are right Antpool has had some bad luck on latest blocks.

It's looking more and more like it's going to be somewhere in 7.XX on difficulty change.

Yes, I agree, maybe even a bit under 7% if we are lucky.

Does anyone remember what KNC was planning for capacity on their 16nm chip data hall private IPO?

they took down their old site and forums ..so no idea if that was ever floated or not

just curious when that cannonball will hit the 'difficulty pool' so to speak

Minerjoe

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Quote from: notlist3d on March 30, 2015, 02:50:20 AM

Quote from: Minerjoe on March 30, 2015, 02:46:26 AM

It seems to be slowing down a bit but this might be due to terrible Antpool luck in the last 12 hours.

Antpool was killing it just 24 hours ago and best profit in a while. But you are right Antpool has had some bad luck on latest blocks.

It's looking more and more like it's going to be somewhere in 7.XX on difficulty change.

Yes, I agree, maybe even a bit under 7% if we are lucky.

notlist3d

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Quote from: Minerjoe on March 30, 2015, 02:46:26 AM

It seems to be slowing down a bit but this might be due to terrible Antpool luck in the last 12 hours.

Antpool was killing it just 24 hours ago and best profit in a while. But you are right Antpool has had some bad luck on latest blocks.

It's looking more and more like it's going to be somewhere in 7.XX on difficulty change.

Minerjoe

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It seems to be slowing down a bit but this might be due to terrible Antpool luck in the last 12 hours.

philipma1957

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Quote from: Searing on March 29, 2015, 02:37:10 AM

Quote from: Minerjoe on March 29, 2015, 01:37:19 AM

8% for now, I do not thing it ll go lover then that. We did have -1.5% last time. If it comes down a bit more, maybe it s not that terrible.

well imho when the KNC data hall hits with the 16nm stuff roles out ...supposedly 'tapeout' was done Febuary 3rd 2015 (take with a grain of salt this is knc we are talking about)

http://www.kncminer.com/blog/newsarchive

say give them another 3 weeks imho and blamo they will flip the switch on this new (private) 16nm data hall / ipo

anyway ..they claim they want to 'own' 40% of all mining by 2016 with this data hall and IPO endeavor.....so I would expect that is gonna be an 'ugly' couple of months
for difficulty with bitcoin......also still have no idea (and asked others) what such a splash would do to the bitcoin pool so to speak..coinfidence in bitcoin as a virtual currency
and price in general

myself no idea ..but I am a bit leery of KNC reaching the 40% of all mining goal and continuing to do.....cashing out ALL BTC to USD DAILY...that is not going
to change I guess....so ...that alone makes me scratch my head on how that is (or not) going to effect confidence in bitcoin..when a corp like KNC MAY control
40% of all mining with the added question of always cashing out to USD each day....

again no idea ...just to the clueless of the world (myself) does not bode well imho

others on here with more insight feel free to jump in (me just pointing out the obvious...as to what it means no frigging idea)

well lets say they do it 40% which is 800 coins each diff jump. to do this and it is truly a moron move to do it. they need .1 watt gear. and they need 200th.

the math of turning down your .4 watt gear and putting in .1 watt as a replacement . works better

say 20ph at .4 = 8 MW of power do 80ph at .1 = 8 MW of power . Zero power cost just gear itself and a 60ph increase. Smarter to do.

Still bad for the 10th guy.

Do the same for bitfury they are supposed to have 20mw center it runs 30ph at .66 watts pull the old gear out put in .33 watts gear

they go from 30ph to 60ph

KNC and Bitfury would move from 50ph to 140ph with 0 cost for the power! This would be smart business for them. It is most likley a variation of what is happening.

My guess is this will last for a little bit and then back to -1 to +4 jumps. Of course just because my plan makes business sense does not mean they have other ideas.

mavericklm

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c'est la vie! and we are not anymore in the age of cpu mining....

we got: knc, bitfury, sfards, bitmain, etc and you guys complain of 10% jump???

they got everything going for themselves(low $/kw, know how, funds) so 15% jump in the network is almost nothing!

just some ideas: don't get used to under 5%, think big and bigger(my ~10th home mining ''farm'' is nothing), look for very cheap electricity and ways of using the wasted heat!

Searing

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Clueless!

Quote from: Minerjoe on March 29, 2015, 01:37:19 AM

8% for now, I do not thing it ll go lover then that. We did have -1.5% last time. If it comes down a bit more, maybe it s not that terrible.

well imho when the KNC data hall hits with the 16nm stuff roles out ...supposedly 'tapeout' was done Febuary 3rd 2015 (take with a grain of salt this is knc we are talking about)

http://www.kncminer.com/blog/newsarchive

say give them another 3 weeks imho and blamo they will flip the switch on this new (private) 16nm data hall / ipo

anyway ..they claim they want to 'own' 40% of all mining by 2016 with this data hall and IPO endeavor.....so I would expect that is gonna be an 'ugly' couple of months
for difficulty with bitcoin......also still have no idea (and asked others) what such a splash would do to the bitcoin pool so to speak..coinfidence in bitcoin as a virtual currency
and price in general

myself no idea ..but I am a bit leery of KNC reaching the 40% of all mining goal and continuing to do.....cashing out ALL BTC to USD DAILY...that is not going
to change I guess....so ...that alone makes me scratch my head on how that is (or not) going to effect confidence in bitcoin..when a corp like KNC MAY control
40% of all mining with the added question of always cashing out to USD each day....

again no idea ...just to the clueless of the world (myself) does not bode well imho

others on here with more insight feel free to jump in (me just pointing out the obvious...as to what it means no frigging idea)

Minerjoe

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8% for now, I do not thing it ll go lover then that. We did have -1.5% last time. If it comes down a bit more, maybe it s not that terrible.

odolvlobo

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Quote from: Minerjoe on March 27, 2015, 01:49:22 PM

Quote from: odolvlobo on March 27, 2015, 10:58:53 AM

Keep in mind that the graphs are not actually showing hash rate. They are showing the rate that blocks are being produced, and the hash rate is inferred.

There is a huge random component to block production. Spikes in the graph are generally random fluctuations, though there have been times when the effect of farms being turned on and off have shown up in the charts.

So what do you use to monitor hashrate?

The only way to estimate total hash rate is by looking at the rate that blocks are produced. Those graphs are the best we can do short of tracking all miners, which is not currently possible.

A10010

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Quote from: Searing on March 27, 2015, 08:17:06 PM

Quote from: Minerjoe on March 27, 2015, 09:46:43 AM

Quote from: QuestionAuthority on March 27, 2015, 08:11:08 AM

Does anyone realize chinese farms/pools + unknown control 70% of the current hash rate? You're crazy if your still mining as an individual in the English speaking world (I'm assuming you all not chinese because you're here). Who cares what the difficulty is? None of you are ever going to make anything more than pocket change by mining from this point forward.

BW.com https://www.bw.com 13%

F2Pool https://www.f2pool.com 15%

Antpool https://www.bitmaintech.com/about.htm 17%

BTCChina https://www.btcchina.com/#/ 6%

Unknown 20%

I generally agree. Private and home mining s been dead for a long time.
The key s increased acceptance. All these farms and mining efforts generate about 3500 BTC per day, regardless of the difficulty. The key s to find a way to absorb these 3500 BTC per day and the economy will grow.

Is this true ...does it help BTC if these large farms cash out to USD each day as KNC says it does? Also remember KNC wants to control 40% of all bitcoin mining with their data hall and IPO arrangement ...and they will continue to cash out to USD each day (no holding)

not a slam..just don't know how all this would effect btc price or btc future use etc if this is the case

Most probably it's irrelevant.

Searing

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Clueless!

Quote from: Minerjoe on March 27, 2015, 09:46:43 AM

Quote from: QuestionAuthority on March 27, 2015, 08:11:08 AM

Does anyone realize chinese farms/pools + unknown control 70% of the current hash rate? You're crazy if your still mining as an individual in the English speaking world (I'm assuming you all not chinese because you're here). Who cares what the difficulty is? None of you are ever going to make anything more than pocket change by mining from this point forward.

BW.com https://www.bw.com 13%

F2Pool https://www.f2pool.com 15%

Antpool https://www.bitmaintech.com/about.htm 17%

BTCChina https://www.btcchina.com/#/ 6%

Unknown 20%

I generally agree. Private and home mining s been dead for a long time.
The key s increased acceptance. All these farms and mining efforts generate about 3500 BTC per day, regardless of the difficulty. The key s to find a way to absorb these 3500 BTC per day and the economy will grow.

Is this true ...does it help BTC if these large farms cash out to USD each day as KNC says it does? Also remember KNC wants to control 40% of all bitcoin mining with their data hall and IPO arrangement ...and they will continue to cash out to USD each day (no holding)

not a slam..just don't know how all this would effect btc price or btc future use etc if this is the case

Minerjoe

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Quote from: odolvlobo on March 27, 2015, 10:58:53 AM

Keep in mind that the graphs are not actually showing hash rate. They are showing the rate that blocks are being produced, and the hash rate is inferred.

There is a huge random component to block production. Spikes in the graph are generally random fluctuations, though there have been times when the effect of farms being turned on and off have shown up in the charts.

So what do you use to monitor hashrate?

odolvlobo

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Activity: 4466

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Keep in mind that the graphs are not actually showing hash rate. They are showing the rate that blocks are being produced, and the hash rate is inferred.

There is a huge random component to block production. Spikes in the graph are generally random fluctuations, though there have been times when the effect of farms being turned on and off have shown up in the charts.

Minerjoe

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Activity: 406

Merit: 250

Quote from: QuestionAuthority on March 27, 2015, 08:11:08 AM

Does anyone realize chinese farms/pools + unknown control 70% of the current hash rate? You're crazy if your still mining as an individual in the English speaking world (I'm assuming you all not chinese because you're here). Who cares what the difficulty is? None of you are ever going to make anything more than pocket change by mining from this point forward.

BW.com https://www.bw.com 13%

F2Pool https://www.f2pool.com 15%

Antpool https://www.bitmaintech.com/about.htm 17%

BTCChina https://www.btcchina.com/#/ 6%

Unknown 20%

I generally agree. Private and home mining s been dead for a long time.
The key s increased acceptance. All these farms and mining efforts generate about 3500 BTC per day, regardless of the difficulty. The key s to find a way to absorb these 3500 BTC per day and the economy will grow.

Velkro

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Quote from: Snail2 on March 27, 2015, 05:40:41 AM

Only good knows, but maybe it was mining other SHA-256 coins, or in that time the farm was in the deployment/upgrade phase and what we seen was only a test run.

Agree, anyways good that people follow this, for security reasons

amaclin

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Quote from: Minerjoe on March 27, 2015, 04:49:11 AM

I thought the era of high diff jumps s over,considering a huge mining base.

I guess I was wrong big time.

This adjustment seems to be over 10%. Where does that hash comes from? 10% s a really, really lot of money for a hardware to be fired up in a single week.

Comment?

It is easy to hide your power for a while.
Just connect your hardware to several pools and perform "block withholding attack"
This technique gives you money without increasing total network hashrate.

QuestionAuthority

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You lead and I'll watch you walk away.

Does anyone realize chinese farms/pools + unknown control 70% of the current hash rate? You're crazy if you're still mining as an individual in the English speaking world (I'm assuming you're all not chinese because you're here). Who cares what the difficulty is? None of you are ever going to make anything more than pocket change by mining from this point forward.

BW.com https://www.bw.com 13%

F2Pool https://www.f2pool.com 15%

Antpool https://www.bitmaintech.com/about.htm 17%

BTCChina https://www.btcchina.com/#/ 6%

Unknown 20%

CodingCentre

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Quote from: Minerjoe on March 27, 2015, 04:49:11 AM

I thought the era of high diff jumps s over,considering a huge mining base.

I guess I was wrong big time.

This adjustment seems to be over 10%. Where does that hash comes from? 10% s a really, really lot of money for a hardware to be fired up in a single week.

Comment?

there will always be big jumps because of the ever evolving tech which is being devloped

Amph

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Quote from: Minerjoe on March 27, 2015, 07:33:47 AM

Quote from: Amph on March 27, 2015, 06:54:40 AM

could be rised because of when btc was at 270, and now it's falling again, remember that the diff don't rise istantly, it need time

So what u re saying it ll go down again in the future since BTC went down? I highly doubt that. As long as there is any kind of profit margin, they ll keep mining.

I m not surprised about diff going up. I am surprised due to the size of it. If it continues this way, we ll see 15% or more diff growth. To add 15% hash to the network is a HUGE investment.

i''m just saying that the diff changing, don't generally reflect the current price, could be because of old price change

Minerjoe

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Quote from: Amph on March 27, 2015, 06:54:40 AM

could be rised because of when btc was at 270, and now it's falling again, remember that the diff don't rise istantly, it need time

So what u re saying it ll go down again in the future since BTC went down? I highly doubt that. As long as there is any kind of profit margin, they ll keep mining.

I m not surprised about diff going up. I am surprised due to the size of it. If it continues this way, we ll see 15% or more diff growth. To add 15% hash to the network is a HUGE investment.

Amph

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could be rised because of when btc was at 270, and now it's falling again, remember that the diff don't rise istantly, it need time

Minerjoe

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Quote from: Searing on March 27, 2015, 06:17:34 AM

Quote from: Minerjoe on March 27, 2015, 04:49:11 AM

I thought the era of high diff jumps s over,considering a huge mining base.

I guess I was wrong big time.

This adjustment seems to be over 10%. Where does that hash comes from? 10% s a really, really lot of money for a hardware to be fired up in a single week.

Comment?

Well KNC 'said' it has taped out their next generation of asic 16nm chips (private use by them and IPO only) for use in their data hall(s) ..MAY be coming up to speed now with equipment

that was Feb 3rd 2015 (hey it is a long shot ...but still ...)

http://www.kncminer.com/blog/newsarchive

KNC has stated they want to control 40% of all the bitcoin mined by sometime in 2016 or so....and of course will continue to mine directly converting BTC

to USD each day as they do so

so if the jump in difficulty is NOT due to them..well....you can pucker up on the prospect that in a few weeks (assuming they are on their time line big if)
another big hit will be forthcoming....

but on reflection looking at the above it looks maybe too soon for them ..(they are always late) so that means some other elephant is at the dance

what do they say ...when elephants decide they want to poka ...it may be time to clear off the dance floor?

I agree on this one, 100%. There must be something else worth of out attention.

Searing

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Clueless!

Quote from: Minerjoe on March 27, 2015, 04:49:11 AM

I thought the era of high diff jumps s over,considering a huge mining base.

I guess I was wrong big time.

This adjustment seems to be over 10%. Where does that hash comes from? 10% s a really, really lot of money for a hardware to be fired up in a single week.

Comment?

Well KNC 'said' it has taped out their next generation of asic 16nm chips (private use by them and IPO only) for use in their data hall(s) ..MAY be coming up to speed now with equipment

that was Feb 3rd 2015 (hey it is a long shot ...but still ...)

http://www.kncminer.com/blog/newsarchive

KNC has stated they want to control 40% of all the bitcoin mined by sometime in 2016 or so....and of course will continue to mine directly converting BTC

to USD each day as they do so

so if the jump in difficulty is NOT due to them..well....you can pucker up on the prospect that in a few weeks (assuming they are on their time line big if)
another big hit will be forthcoming....

but on reflection looking at the above it looks maybe too soon for them ..(they are always late) so that means some other elephant is at the dance

what do they say ...when elephants decide they want to poka ...it may be time to clear off the dance floor?

bri912678

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Quote from: Lauda on March 27, 2015, 05:56:37 AM

Quote from: Minerjoe on March 27, 2015, 05:50:25 AM

Quote from: Snail2 on March 27, 2015, 05:40:41 AM

Only good knows, but maybe it was mining other SHA-256 coins, or in that time the farm was in the deployment/upgrade phase and what we seen was only a test run.

The only credible explanation IMO is that is something new, some new chip being deployed. Maybe s6 testing.

No that's not a credible explanation at all. Have you ever thought about possible issues with a big mining farm? Power outages, DDOS and whatnot?

There is a big farm that people invest in. The investors money is used to buy more mining equipment which mines bitcoins to pay the investors back with. They could have recently expanded after taking a massive delivery of equipment they had been waiting for.

Minerjoe

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Quote from: Lauda on March 27, 2015, 05:56:37 AM

Quote from: Minerjoe on March 27, 2015, 05:50:25 AM

Quote from: Snail2 on March 27, 2015, 05:40:41 AM

Only good knows, but maybe it was mining other SHA-256 coins, or in that time the farm was in the deployment/upgrade phase and what we seen was only a test run.

The only credible explanation IMO is that is something new, some new chip being deployed. Maybe s6 testing.

No that's not a credible explanation at all. Have you ever thought about possible issues with a big mining farm? Power outages, DDOS and whatnot?

Show me a farm which contributes 10% to BTC network. Almost 11% now.

Lauda

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Terminated.

Quote from: Minerjoe on March 27, 2015, 05:50:25 AM

Quote from: Snail2 on March 27, 2015, 05:40:41 AM

Only good knows, but maybe it was mining other SHA-256 coins, or in that time the farm was in the deployment/upgrade phase and what we seen was only a test run.

The only credible explanation IMO is that is something new, some new chip being deployed. Maybe s6 testing.

No that's not a credible explanation at all. Have you ever thought about possible issues with a big mining farm? Power outages, DDOS and whatnot?

Minerjoe

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Quote from: Snail2 on March 27, 2015, 05:40:41 AM

Quote from: Minerjoe on March 27, 2015, 05:11:39 AM

So where was it then in the meantime? Mining some other more profitable Sha-256 coin?

Only good knows, but maybe it was mining other SHA-256 coins, or in that time the farm was in the deployment/upgrade phase and what we seen was only a test run.

The only credible explanation IMO is that is something new, some new chip being deployed. Maybe s6 testing.

Snail2

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Quote from: Minerjoe on March 27, 2015, 05:11:39 AM

So where was it then in the meantime? Mining some other more profitable Sha-256 coin?

Only good knows, but maybe it was mining other SHA-256 coins, or in that time the farm was in the deployment/upgrade phase and what we seen was only a test run.

Minerjoe

sr. member

Activity: 406

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Quote from: Lauda on March 27, 2015, 05:04:25 AM

Quote from: Minerjoe on March 27, 2015, 04:49:11 AM

I thought the era of high diff jumps s over,considering a huge mining base.

I guess I was wrong big time.

This adjustment seems to be over 10%. Where does that hash comes from? 10% s a really, really lot of money for a hardware to be fired up in a single week.

Comment?

https://i.imgur.com/lC3BJb4.png

You've been looking at this the wrong way. The hashrate was there, it wasn't just deployed all the time. Look at the spike two weeks back.

So where was it then in the meantime? Mining some other more profitable Sha-256 coin?

Lauda

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Terminated.

Quote from: Minerjoe on March 27, 2015, 04:49:11 AM

I thought the era of high diff jumps s over,considering a huge mining base.

I guess I was wrong big time.

This adjustment seems to be over 10%. Where does that hash comes from? 10% s a really, really lot of money for a hardware to be fired up in a single week.

Comment?

https://i.imgur.com/lC3BJb4.png

You've been looking at this the wrong way. The hashrate was there, it wasn't just deployed all the time. Look at the spike two weeks back.

Minerjoe

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Activity: 406

Merit: 250

I thought the era of high diff jumps s over,considering a huge mining base.

I guess I was wrong big time.

This adjustment seems to be over 10%. Where does that hash comes from? 10% s a really, really lot of money for a hardware to be fired up in a single week.

Comment?

Topic: 10% BTC difficulty growth???? (Read 2977 times)