$10,000 in three years | Bitcointalksearch.org

Buo

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Quote from: yokosan on September 14, 2014, 07:39:12 AM

Bubble 1 - June 2011 - $30
Bubble 2 - April 2013 - $250
Bubble 3 - November 2013 - $1,200

B1 -> 22 months -> B2 -> 7 months -> B3 -> 8.5 months... -> B4?

Bubble 1 - 2

250 - 30 = 220
220 / 22 months = $10/month

Bubble 2 - 3

1,200 - 250 = 950
950 / 7 months = $135/month

Bubble 3 - 4?

@$10/month so far = $1,280 - erm, no, not a bubble
@135/month so far = $2,347.5 - still not really a bubble

Soooo......

135/10 = 13.5
135 * 13.5 = $1,822.5

@$1,822.g/month so far = $16,691.25

$16,691.25 would be the price of the peak of the bubble if we were at the peak today, which we are not.

$10,000 is looking more pessimistic every day.

Conclusion

Tim draper is a bear

So are you saying that $10,000 is a pessimistic speculation?
I definitely agree with you, but I was really close to sell them all some weeks ago...

CryptoCarmen

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Quote from: Dafar on September 15, 2014, 10:07:03 AM

Sorry to break it to you guys... but as long as I'm holding bitcoin will never prosper. The forces of the universe hate me, and never allow me to gain money.... seriously I have the WORST luck with money, never made a dime off any of my investments I've ever invested in... I only wish I knew how it felt like to make a profit... on anything... must be nice

lol sell!!!!!!

Go on, help others get rich one day. Selll!!!!

giveBTCpls

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The Winklevii has predicted a price of 40.000$ per coin and "that would be conservative" and "it would happen faster than everyone knows if it happens". I somewhat agree. I think these big price surges happen out of nowhere and no one really expects it. It's like the buying mania happens as people stop questioning obivous thing even if they know it makes total sense in the back of their mind but fear stops them from buying. This is exactly what happened with 1K bubble and it will happen the same in the next rally, each time supported by more solid facts,

Wilhelm

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Quote from: Dafar on September 15, 2014, 10:07:03 AM

Sorry to break it to you guys... but as long as I'm holding bitcoin will never prosper. The forces of the universe hate me, and never allow me to gain money.... seriously I have the WORST luck with money, never made a dime off any of my investments I've ever invested in... I only wish I knew how it felt like to make a profit... on anything... must be nice

I know the feeling Cheesy

Dafar

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dafar consulting

Sorry to break it to you guys... but as long as I'm holding bitcoin will never prosper. The forces of the universe hate me, and never allow me to gain money.... seriously I have the WORST luck with money, never made a dime off any of my investments I've ever invested in... I only wish I knew how it felt like to make a profit... on anything... must be nice

ChuckBuck

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better everyday ♥

Quote from: Luckybit on September 14, 2014, 08:01:31 AM

Quote from: ChuckBuck on September 12, 2014, 12:40:30 PM

Of course he's trying to pump up his 30,000 BTC investment, he lost $5mill FIAT on it since July! Shocked

I believe in Bitcoin, I'm just trying to figure out why it's declined from $650 in July to $470 now, with mostly positive news, investors and entrepeneurs alike trying to jump in, and increasing adoption.

Something's holding it back besides the proposed NY Bit license regulation, I just have no idea what it is. Sad

A lot of Bitcoins are concentrated in the hands of miners, mining companies, mining pools, and it's increasingly a centralized situation.

This is an example why Proof of Stake is superior because if it's properly distributed it's not going to be mined which means no inflation to dilute the price. I would suggest you head out of Proof of Work if you don't like volatility and head into something else.

I like Peercoin as much as the next Crypto enthusiast, but I don't think it's going anywhere, anytime soon. Unless it's somehow merge mined along with BTC, there's just no adoption or acceptance of it. I mean $117,880,812 market cap! That's peanuts in the grand scheme of things...

I do love it's properties and the fact you can mint it, it's 1% inflation rate, and unlimited supply. Just don't see it, or the other Proof of Stake alts (Blackcoin, Reddcoin, Tekcoin, NXT, etc) reaching their potential. They each have their individual quirks and underlying technology benefits, but unless they somehow piggyback off of Bitcoin, doesn't seem like they'll truly take off.

Luckybit

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Quote from: ChuckBuck on September 12, 2014, 12:40:30 PM

Of course he's trying to pump up his 30,000 BTC investment, he lost $5mill FIAT on it since July! Shocked

I believe in Bitcoin, I'm just trying to figure out why it's declined from $650 in July to $470 now, with mostly positive news, investors and entrepeneurs alike trying to jump in, and increasing adoption.

Something's holding it back besides the proposed NY Bit license regulation, I just have no idea what it is. Sad

A lot of Bitcoins are concentrated in the hands of miners, mining companies, mining pools, and it's increasingly a centralized situation.

This is an example why Proof of Stake is superior because if it's properly distributed it's not going to be mined which means no inflation to dilute the price. I would suggest you head out of Proof of Work if you don't like volatility and head into something else.

yokosan

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Bubble 1 - June 2011 - $30
Bubble 2 - April 2013 - $250
Bubble 3 - November 2013 - $1,200

B1 -> 22 months -> B2 -> 7 months -> B3 -> 8.5 months... -> B4?

Bubble 1 - 2

250 - 30 = 220
220 / 22 months = $10/month

Bubble 2 - 3

1,200 - 250 = 950
950 / 7 months = $135/month

Bubble 3 - 4?

@$10/month so far = $1,280 - erm, no, not a bubble
@135/month so far = $2,347.5 - still not really a bubble

Soooo......

135/10 = 13.5
135 * 13.5 = $1,822.5

@$1,822.g/month so far = $16,691.25

$16,691.25 would be the price of the peak of the bubble if we were at the peak today, which we are not.

$10,000 is looking more pessimistic every day.

Conclusion

Tim draper is a bear

sehnye

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Quote from: BittBurger on September 13, 2014, 01:14:32 PM

Bitcoin was supposed to hit $10,000 in 2014 ....

yea, no.

-B-

2014 isn't finished yet, no one can predict what's going to happen before the end of this year...

yokosan

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Quote from: foozewol on September 14, 2014, 04:44:12 AM

Quote from: yokosan on September 13, 2014, 07:04:15 PM

Time for some fun analysis.

$10,000 in 3 years.

Lets pretend that we were already at $500 for simplicity.

We need to rise $9,500 over 3 years = average of $3,166/year or $264/month

Of course we know that Bitcoin doesn't just rise a static amount each month, it tends to go through exponential bubble phases.

The previous bubble involved doubling every 2 weeks. (100, 200, 400, 800, 1200 - less than 4 doublings)

It is worth noting that MtGox was slow and shit during that bubble, and prevented it from going further.

The end of the bubble taking us to $10k should involve doublings of the following values over 2 week periods.

$10,000 (target!)
$5,000
$2,500
$1,250
$625

$10,000 is no magic number. It could go higher or lower, for example it could peak at $12,437, $23,299, or $8999. We don't know.

Due to our current trajectory I do not think $10,000 is high enough for a bubble, because $625 will be approached too slowly. If the bubble starts closer to $1,250 it is likely to go much higher than $10,000 (remember, just one extra doubling is $20,000).

Conclusion

For the bubble to stop at $10,000 we would need to start doubling at around our current price, which is not going to happen without a major game changing event (e.g. bank runs). Therefore I predict the next bubble to go over $20,000.

Seeing a value of 20,000$ would be great but I think that the next bubble will be lower than $10,000.

That basically means it woudn't be an exponential bubble then, as an exponential bubble would have to have already started to stop before $10k.

foozewol

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Quote from: yokosan on September 13, 2014, 07:04:15 PM

Time for some fun analysis.

$10,000 in 3 years.

Lets pretend that we were already at $500 for simplicity.

We need to rise $9,500 over 3 years = average of $3,166/year or $264/month

Of course we know that Bitcoin doesn't just rise a static amount each month, it tends to go through exponential bubble phases.

The previous bubble involved doubling every 2 weeks. (100, 200, 400, 800, 1200 - less than 4 doublings)

It is worth noting that MtGox was slow and shit during that bubble, and prevented it from going further.

The end of the bubble taking us to $10k should involve doublings of the following values over 2 week periods.

$10,000 (target!)
$5,000
$2,500
$1,250
$625

$10,000 is no magic number. It could go higher or lower, for example it could peak at $12,437, $23,299, or $8999. We don't know.

Due to our current trajectory I do not think $10,000 is high enough for a bubble, because $625 will be approached too slowly. If the bubble starts closer to $1,250 it is likely to go much higher than $10,000 (remember, just one extra doubling is $20,000).

Conclusion

For the bubble to stop at $10,000 we would need to start doubling at around our current price, which is not going to happen without a major game changing event (e.g. bank runs). Therefore I predict the next bubble to go over $20,000.

Seeing a value of 20,000$ would be great but I think that the next bubble will be lower than $10,000.

Divinespark

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Draper may be biased and he may also be right. For him 18mn is money he can afford to lose, let's not forget,Let's all get the popcorn out and watch the action play out

yokosan

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Time for some fun analysis.

$10,000 in 3 years.

Lets pretend that we were already at $500 for simplicity.

We need to rise $9,500 over 3 years = average of $3,166/year or $264/month

Of course we know that Bitcoin doesn't just rise a static amount each month, it tends to go through exponential bubble phases.

The previous bubble involved doubling every 2 weeks. (100, 200, 400, 800, 1200 - less than 4 doublings)

It is worth noting that MtGox was slow and shit during that bubble, and prevented it from going further.

The end of the bubble taking us to $10k should involve doublings of the following values over 2 week periods.

$10,000 (target!)
$5,000
$2,500
$1,250
$625

$10,000 is no magic number. It could go higher or lower, for example it could peak at $12,437, $23,299, or $8999. We don't know.

Due to our current trajectory I do not think $10,000 is high enough for a bubble, because $625 will be approached too slowly. If the bubble starts closer to $1,250 it is likely to go much higher than $10,000 (remember, just one extra doubling is $20,000).

Conclusion

For the bubble to stop at $10,000 we would need to start doubling at around our current price, which is not going to happen without a major game changing event (e.g. bank runs). Therefore I predict the next bubble to go over $20,000.

BittBurger

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Bitcoin was supposed to hit $10,000 in 2014 ....

yea, no.

-B-

zimmah

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Quote from: nope491 on September 13, 2014, 11:37:36 AM

Quote from: Odalv on September 12, 2014, 03:16:23 PM

Long term support goes up more than 500% every year.

31.12.2012 $12
31.12.2013 $60
31.12.2014 $300
31.12.2015 $1,500
31.12.2016 $7,500
31.12.2017 $37,500

So Draper is really conservative. :-)

I hope this prediction will come true

i think most of these numbers are on the low side.

Biodom

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Quote from: Odalv on September 13, 2014, 10:30:48 AM

Quote from: Biodom on September 13, 2014, 09:54:03 AM

something is wrong with your numbers
Dec31 2013 was ~$800, not $60

what exactly you are showing here? price in Dec2013 was ~$800 on any major exchange.
http://bitcoincharts.com/charts/
Your chart is of mtgox (how relevant is it?).

nope491

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Quote from: Odalv on September 12, 2014, 03:16:23 PM

Long term support goes up more than 500% every year.

31.12.2012 $12
31.12.2013 $60
31.12.2014 $300
31.12.2015 $1,500
31.12.2016 $7,500
31.12.2017 $37,500

So Draper is really conservative. :-)

I hope this prediction will come true

Odalv

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Quote from: Biodom on September 13, 2014, 09:54:03 AM

something is wrong with your numbers
Dec31 2013 was ~$800, not $60

flowerpots

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I don't see bitcoin going anywhere before a new economical crisis hits a (western) country. That's very plausible within the next 3 years.. maybe even a worldwide crisis.. if that happens, $10.000 is very conservative.

Biodom

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Quote from: Odalv on September 12, 2014, 03:16:23 PM

Long term support goes up more than 500% every year.

31.12.2012 $12
31.12.2013 $60
31.12.2014 $300
31.12.2015 $1,500
31.12.2016 $7,500
31.12.2017 $37,500

So Draper is really conservative. :-)

something is wrong with your numbers
Dec31 2013 was ~$800, not $60

Febo

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Quote from: Odalv on September 12, 2014, 03:16:23 PM

Long term support goes up more than 500% every year.

31.12.2012 $12
31.12.2013 $60
31.12.2014 $300
31.12.2015 $1,500
31.12.2016 $7,500
31.12.2017 $37,500

So Draper is really conservative. :-)

it went more then 500%, but in future might not be that high anyone.

srgkrgkj

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$10k in 3 years may sound impossible but can happen Cheesy

the Bitoin foundations allow anything to happen.

DeadCoin

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Quote from: inca on September 13, 2014, 06:07:18 AM

Quote from: Buffer Overflow on September 13, 2014, 01:06:23 AM

I can't see 10K in 3 years. Remember 12.5 BTC will be created every 10 minutes that need to be absorbed.

Could you see the previous 10x movements upward every year preceding this? What is the difference?

Bigger the market cap, more difficult and less likely to have 10x upward movement

inca

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Quote from: exocytosis on September 13, 2014, 05:25:29 AM

Quote from: lyth0s on September 13, 2014, 01:30:09 AM

As soon as price starts increasing miners start holding more coins, which then in turn fuels higher prices as supply decreases.

And what, exactly, would make the price increase in the first place? Roll Eyes

You know full well..

inca

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Quote from: Buffer Overflow on September 13, 2014, 01:06:23 AM

I can't see 10K in 3 years. Remember 12.5 BTC will be created every 10 minutes that need to be absorbed.

Could you see the previous 10x movements upward every year preceding this? What is the difference?

exocytosis

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Quote from: lyth0s on September 13, 2014, 01:30:09 AM

As soon as price starts increasing miners start holding more coins, which then in turn fuels higher prices as supply decreases.

And what, exactly, would make the price increase in the first place? Roll Eyes

lyth0s

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Quote from: Buffer Overflow on September 13, 2014, 01:06:23 AM

I can't see 10K in 3 years. Remember 12.5 BTC will be created every 10 minutes that need to be absorbed.

As soon as price starts increasing miners start holding more coins, which then in turn fuels higher prices as supply decreases. $10,000 in 3 years is very bearish IMO.

Buffer Overflow

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I can't see 10K in 3 years. Remember 12.5 BTC will be created every 10 minutes that need to be absorbed.

Soros Shorts

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Quote from: Dalmar on September 12, 2014, 01:25:45 PM

This reminds me of gold bagholders who bought at the top and are still hoping for $10,000 per ounce of gold.

With the way the US dollar is being systematically "eased" most of us might see this in our lifetimes.

Wilhelm

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Quote from: ?? on ??

Quote from: Kupsi on September 12, 2014, 06:18:18 PM

The ETF will take us there in 12 months if it gets approved.

wrong. this is a dangerous assumption.

if anyone wanted to buy bitcoin, they would have done it by now. there is no money waiting on the sidelines for an ETF approval. they would have used an exchange or bought directly from a miner on contract if they wanted.

That's the reason nobody trades in paper gold Roll Eyes

ETF will make Bitcoin accessible to trading companies and make investing easier, safer and legitimate.

Kupsi

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9.9.2012: I predict that single digits... <- FAIL

The ETF will take us there in 12 months if it gets approved.

Ektra

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Quote from: Sir Barken Hyena on September 12, 2014, 03:41:31 PM

Very little attention has been payed to Bitcoin by the mainstream media since the collapse of Gox. Those of us who follow bitcoin obsessively know there has been a ton of important progress made but for the larger world, it's off the radar entirely. I often encounter people who think that Bitcoin completely died in March and are shocked to learn that it still exists and has held value.

The breakout, if it comes, will be fueled by media hype. What could cause that? Who knows.

More or less this.

FUR11

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FURring bitcoin up since 1762

$10k in three years sounds reasonable! I think we could get there sooner if there's a healthy climb in 2015, and we may cross the $10k in 2016 then. A bubble in 2014 seems very unlikely at this point, though...

riiiising

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Quote from: Odalv on September 12, 2014, 11:37:53 AM

Quote

Draper told CoinDesk:

“I guess the markets aren’t seeing what I am seeing. An entire economy is being rebuilt. I have a price target of $10,000 in three years. Even that may be pessimistic.”

http://www.coindesk.com/tim-draper-bitcoins-price-still-headed-10k/

In three years? Huh, that's a long time for $10k, I say! We'll be there much sooner!

Sir Barken Hyena

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Very little attention has been payed to Bitcoin by the mainstream media since the collapse of Gox. Those of us who follow bitcoin obsessively know there has been a ton of important progress made but for the larger world, it's off the radar entirely. I often encounter people who think that Bitcoin completely died in March and are shocked to learn that it still exists and has held value.

The breakout, if it comes, will be fueled by media hype. What could cause that? Who knows.

Odalv

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Activity: 1414

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Long term support goes up more than 500% every year.

31.12.2012 $12
31.12.2013 $60
31.12.2014 $300
31.12.2015 $1,500
31.12.2016 $7,500
31.12.2017 $37,500

So Draper is really conservative. :-)

trabitc

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I would answer $10,000 in one year, or at least is what I'm hoping..

tex99

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Quote from: ChuckBuck on September 12, 2014, 12:40:30 PM

Of course he's trying to pump up his 30,000 BTC investment, he lost $5mill FIAT on it since July! Shocked

I believe in Bitcoin, I'm just trying to figure out why it's declined from $650 in July to $470 now, with mostly positive news, investors and entrepeneurs alike trying to jump in, and increasing adoption.

Something's holding it back besides the proposed NY Bit license regulation, I just have no idea what it is. Sad

The Mt Gox and silk road bitcoins are still in limbo. That could affect the price.

zimmah

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Quote from: Chuckee on September 12, 2014, 12:55:25 PM

Quote from: DeadCoin on September 12, 2014, 12:42:39 PM

Bitcoin pumper says price will go up? Shocked

I'm shocked.

We're pretty much left with this crap now, since they've banned and are apparently trying to extort fees from anyone who has a negative outlook.

omg, at first i thought he was just joking, but now that i look at his post history i realized who he really is

Mellnik

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Quote from: Chuckee on September 12, 2014, 11:49:25 AM

draper sunk his money into a poor investment and now he is attempting to pump it so he can sell it to a "newer idiot".

don't be fooled by his biased assertion and do not buy into a false recovery!

Yes!!1 ofc what an obvious intention of Draper, well recognized Shocked

btcformat

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In three years the value could be much more high than 10,000$.

exocytosis

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Quote from: ChuckBuck on September 12, 2014, 12:40:30 PM

Something's holding it back besides the proposed NY Bit license regulation, I just have no idea what it is. Sad

3600 new coins are created every day. Miners have to sell a lot of those coins to pay their bills. All those huge sell orders have trouble finding buyers. The market is saturated, and this ridiculously high price can't be sustained forever. Merchants also sell their stash routinely, since it's a lot riskier holding BTC than fiat. User adoption has stagnated, to put it mildly.

Dalmar

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Life is short, practice empathy in your life

This reminds me of gold bagholders who bought at the top and are still hoping for $10,000 per ounce of gold.

Equate

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Every time BTC has broken its previous records but $10000 in 3 years is too much optimism . $3-4k might be possible.

exocytosis

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Pumpers gonna pump.

He'll dump his stash if we ever get back to the 700 dollar range. But we won't, so he'll eventually sell at a loss, probably when we go below 300, a couple of months from now. Poor guy.

adamstgBit

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idiots

Chuckee

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Quote from: DeadCoin on September 12, 2014, 12:42:39 PM

Bitcoin pumper says price will go up? Shocked

I'm shocked.

We're pretty much left with this crap now, since they've banned and are apparently trying to extort fees from anyone who has a negative outlook.

DeadCoin

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Bitcoin pumper says price will go up? Shocked

I'm shocked.

adamstgBit

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Quote from: ThatDGuy on September 12, 2014, 12:36:55 PM

Quote from: zimmah on September 12, 2014, 12:30:16 PM

that's a pretty bearish prediction actually.

$10,000 is not that much to reach in 3 years given the history of bitcoin

This is true. Each bubble has made the previous bubble look like a small blip on the all-time value chart.

If another bubble does that to the one we saw last fall, $7k-$10k is about the realm we're looking at.

I disagree

I see much gains in the coming years, but 10k is just not realistic, sure it can happen... but i wouldn't count on it.

ChuckBuck

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better everyday ♥

Of course he's trying to pump up his 30,000 BTC investment, he lost $5mill FIAT on it since July! Shocked

I believe in Bitcoin, I'm just trying to figure out why it's declined from $650 in July to $470 now, with mostly positive news, investors and entrepeneurs alike trying to jump in, and increasing adoption.

Something's holding it back besides the proposed NY Bit license regulation, I just have no idea what it is. Sad

ThatDGuy

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Quote from: zimmah on September 12, 2014, 12:30:16 PM

that's a pretty bearish prediction actually.

$10,000 is not that much to reach in 3 years given the history of bitcoin

This is true. Each bubble has made the previous bubble look like a small blip on the all-time value chart.

If another bubble does that to the one we saw last fall, $7k-$10k is about the realm we're looking at.

zimmah

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that's a pretty bearish prediction actually.

$10,000 is not that much to reach in 3 years given the history of bitcoin

minerpumpkin

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Quote from: Torque on September 12, 2014, 11:41:11 AM

I think his estimated timeframe is a bit conservative, possibly in 2 years.

If this is conservative or a pie in the sky, we can't possibly tell today. We could also go down from here, and Bitcoin may fail to grasp traction completely. For what it's worth, both of these scenarios are more or less equally likely. I don't even try to gauge which one may be more likely. 2 Years... could be. Could be 1 Year... But could also be never.

Chuckee

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draper sunk his money into a poor investment and now he is attempting to pump it so he can sell it to a "newer idiot".

don't be fooled by his biased assertion and do not buy into a false recovery!

Wilhelm

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Quote from: Torque on September 12, 2014, 11:41:11 AM

I think his estimated timeframe is a bit conservative, possibly in 2 years.

Next month would be fine with me Cheesy

Torque

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I think his estimated timeframe is a bit conservative, possibly in 2 years.

Odalv

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Quote

Draper told CoinDesk:

“I guess the markets aren’t seeing what I am seeing. An entire economy is being rebuilt. I have a price target of $10,000 in three years. Even that may be pessimistic.”

http://www.coindesk.com/tim-draper-bitcoins-price-still-headed-10k/

Topic: $10,000 in three years (Read 3759 times)