If you would have did 1 or 3 days at anotpool it would have been a nice sucess.
Look at stats: Pool Lucky (24H / 3D / 1W / 2W / 1M / 3M / All Time) : 126.00% / 122.00% / 108.00% / 107.00% / 102.00% / 103.00% / 102.00%
So on 24 hours you could have almost had a 30 percent profit if using nice/westhash. That is luck but wow.
Topic: 10PHs in 1 day vs 1PHs in 10 days (Read 1885 times)
Id ask more of what can I afford to risk, since its based on what you can afford really.
Say you go with the huge performance 10 PHs, question is that can you still continue even if the value drops? lol. As oppose to the other smaller hash performance you can since, its less intial risk and can be made for the loss.
Leverage is just accelerated risk, if its not done right which is the 10 PHs.
Say you go with the huge performance 10 PHs, question is that can you still continue even if the value drops? lol. As oppose to the other smaller hash performance you can since, its less intial risk and can be made for the loss.
Leverage is just accelerated risk, if its not done right which is the 10 PHs.
-snip-
It is a good calculation and thanks for it but OP is asking which has higher chance of finding a block.
I think philipma1957 is right you have the same chance finding a block mining with 10PH for 1 day as 1PH for 10 days but renting 1PH for 10 days will cost slightly less as you're paying less for the rigs. Assuming that difficulty stays the same over the 10 days of course.
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Id ask more of what can I afford to risk, since its based on what you can afford really.
Say you go with the huge performance 10 PHs, question is that can you still continue even if the value drops? lol. As oppose to the other smaller hash performance you can since, its less intial risk and can be made for the loss.
Leverage is just accelerated risk, if its not done right which is the 10 PHs.
Say you go with the huge performance 10 PHs, question is that can you still continue even if the value drops? lol. As oppose to the other smaller hash performance you can since, its less intial risk and can be made for the loss.
Leverage is just accelerated risk, if its not done right which is the 10 PHs.
-snip-
It is a good calculation and thanks for it but OP is asking which has higher chance of finding a block.
Id ask more of what can I afford to risk, since its based on what you can afford really.
Say you go with the huge performance 10 PHs, question is that can you still continue even if the value drops? lol. As oppose to the other smaller hash performance you can since, its less intial risk and can be made for the loss.
Leverage is just accelerated risk, if its not done right which is the 10 PHs.
Say you go with the huge performance 10 PHs, question is that can you still continue even if the value drops? lol. As oppose to the other smaller hash performance you can since, its less intial risk and can be made for the loss.
Leverage is just accelerated risk, if its not done right which is the 10 PHs.
yes this is true. if I rent 10 ph for 24 hours at a bargain rate (.0095) say at our current diff of 47b point it at antpool I should make a profit.
If I point 1 ph at antpool for 10 days I should profit (.0095) same bargain rate I should make an identical profit.
That is rate world of 0 variables other then 10 x = 1 x 10
real world the 10 ph rental has almost 0 chance of being (0.0095) as it is too big and will raise the price = a problem 10 x 1
you will also fuck your share up since 10+70 = 80 ph of which you have 10 so your share is ⅛ or .125% x 1 for 1 day
1ph is 1 + 70 = 71 your share is 1/71 x 10 days = 10/71 or 0.140 % so if the mining is to a pool and not solo 1 ph for 10 days is absolutely better then 10 ph for 1 day. = a really big problem for 10 x 1
So solo may be =.
But shared pool is not =
so A simple question needs a complex answer. any shared mining 1 for 10 days will be better.
10 for 1 day needs more analysis.
my bolded statement is something big farms have realized thus they hardly add hash with more hash. they swap higher cost power hash for cheaper cost hash. but don't increase their hash rate.
ie 10th of s-3's swapped to 10th of s-5 = 8000 watts vs 5200 watts
In our op's question 10ph is almost certain to be more costly then 1 ph over 10 days
Id ask more of what can I afford to risk, since its based on what you can afford really.
Say you go with the huge performance 10 PHs, question is that can you still continue even if the value drops? lol. As oppose to the other smaller hash performance you can since, its less intial risk and can be made for the loss.
Leverage is just accelerated risk, if its not done right which is the 10 PHs.
Say you go with the huge performance 10 PHs, question is that can you still continue even if the value drops? lol. As oppose to the other smaller hash performance you can since, its less intial risk and can be made for the loss.
Leverage is just accelerated risk, if its not done right which is the 10 PHs.
I would say having a smaller amount for a longer period of time is better unless you like to gamble. The pool you use for that one day could be lucky or unlucky which would drastically affect your income and profit. Over a longer period of time the luck factor evens out.
I am pretty sure that in the cases where Phillip rented hash, it was to SOLO mine, possibly using CK's solo mining "pool". The point was to collect virtually all of a 25BTC reward for a block.
I would say having a smaller amount for a longer period of time is better unless you like to gamble. The pool you use for that one day could be lucky or unlucky which would drastically affect your income and profit. Over a longer period of time the luck factor evens out.
This is incorrect. The pool's luck has no bearing whatsoever on your ability to find blocks with your gear. You might get unlucky and blocks you find are orphaned because of the pool, but the pool's luck is irrelevant.
I would say having a smaller amount for a longer period of time is better unless you like to gamble. The pool you use for that one day could be lucky or unlucky which would drastically affect your income and profit. Over a longer period of time the luck factor evens out.
Speculation over rental prices, pool luck, etc really has no bearing on the question. Generating 10PH/s in 24 hours, or that same 10PH/s over 240 hours ends up giving you the same number of hashes, and therefore the same number of chances of finding a block.
At the current difficulty, you'd expect to find a block every 5.684 hours with 10PH/s.
At the current difficulty, you'd expect to find a block every 56.84 hours with 1PH/s.
Whichever way you slice it, at the end of the hashing period, you'd expect to find 4.22 blocks, given the difficulty remains the same.
At the current difficulty, you'd expect to find a block every 5.684 hours with 10PH/s.
At the current difficulty, you'd expect to find a block every 56.84 hours with 1PH/s.
Whichever way you slice it, at the end of the hashing period, you'd expect to find 4.22 blocks, given the difficulty remains the same.
in a perfect world with 0 variables beyond 10 vs 1 you are correct.
I suspect there will always be variables. which will make one better then the other.
I just did 100th for 7 days = zip 6 btc put in
I am doing 500th for 1 day =? 4.5 btc put in
@ notlist in a world of many variables that can go wrong or right ie the real world I agree with you
but if you say no to any outside variables and just 10 x 1 vs 1 x 10
both = 10
Heck, we all see the real-world statistics... in fact the vast majority of us have at one point or another talked about a pool's luck... complaining when it's bad and rejoicing when it's good.
If we look at the pure statistics, your 100TH/s rental for 7 days didn't stand a chance, since at the current difficulty, that 100TH/s would expect to find a block only after 23.6 days. Yet, I jumped onboard that ship and hoped it might hit pay dirt. We might have gotten lucky. We saw a miner do exactly that... hitting 5 blocks in a timeframe in which he should have maybe hit 1.
no question our math was 3-4 to 1 10-15 to one on 2 blocks
this new shot math is 6-7 to one on 1 block 35-50 to 1 on 2 blocks very rough numbers.
In both cases prices were cheap and you can still do poorly. you can miss 5 or 6 times in a rwo.
Speculation over rental prices, pool luck, etc really has no bearing on the question. Generating 10PH/s in 24 hours, or that same 10PH/s over 240 hours ends up giving you the same number of hashes, and therefore the same number of chances of finding a block.
At the current difficulty, you'd expect to find a block every 5.684 hours with 10PH/s.
At the current difficulty, you'd expect to find a block every 56.84 hours with 1PH/s.
Whichever way you slice it, at the end of the hashing period, you'd expect to find 4.22 blocks, given the difficulty remains the same.
At the current difficulty, you'd expect to find a block every 5.684 hours with 10PH/s.
At the current difficulty, you'd expect to find a block every 56.84 hours with 1PH/s.
Whichever way you slice it, at the end of the hashing period, you'd expect to find 4.22 blocks, given the difficulty remains the same.
in a perfect world with 0 variables beyond 10 vs 1 you are correct.
I suspect there will always be variables. which will make one better then the other.
I just did 100th for 7 days = zip 6 btc put in
I am doing 500th for 1 day =? 4.5 btc put in
@ notlist in a world of many variables that can go wrong or right ie the real world I agree with you
but if you say no to any outside variables and just 10 x 1 vs 1 x 10
both = 10
Heck, we all see the real-world statistics... in fact the vast majority of us have at one point or another talked about a pool's luck... complaining when it's bad and rejoicing when it's good.
If we look at the pure statistics, your 100TH/s rental for 7 days didn't stand a chance, since at the current difficulty, that 100TH/s would expect to find a block only after 23.6 days. Yet, I jumped onboard that ship and hoped it might hit pay dirt. We might have gotten lucky. We saw a miner do exactly that... hitting 5 blocks in a timeframe in which he should have maybe hit 1.
Speculation over rental prices, pool luck, etc really has no bearing on the question. Generating 10PH/s in 24 hours, or that same 10PH/s over 240 hours ends up giving you the same number of hashes, and therefore the same number of chances of finding a block.
At the current difficulty, you'd expect to find a block every 5.684 hours with 10PH/s.
At the current difficulty, you'd expect to find a block every 56.84 hours with 1PH/s.
Whichever way you slice it, at the end of the hashing period, you'd expect to find 4.22 blocks, given the difficulty remains the same.
At the current difficulty, you'd expect to find a block every 5.684 hours with 10PH/s.
At the current difficulty, you'd expect to find a block every 56.84 hours with 1PH/s.
Whichever way you slice it, at the end of the hashing period, you'd expect to find 4.22 blocks, given the difficulty remains the same.
in a perfect world with 0 variables beyond 10 vs 1 you are correct.
I suspect there will always be variables. which will make one better then the other.
I just did 100th for 7 days = zip 6 btc put in
I am doing 500th for 1 day =? 4.5 btc put in
@ notlist in a world of many variables that can go wrong or right ie the real world I agree with you
but if you say no to any outside variables and just 10 x 1 vs 1 x 10
both = 10
what has higher chances of finding a block?
Same assuming consistent difficulty
In perfect world this would be true. But if you do all in a day, your risk is greater as it's not spread out over the 10 day's assuming dealing with pool with luck and same difficulty.
But with 10 day's you are actually spreading out you chance of finding block. So less possibility of a bad streak ruining profits. You can have the average luck based on 10 day's instead off 1.
So same ... yes. But if doing one day you are betting a lot of you having good luck with that rental.
This is Gambler's fallacy
Which part are you saying is a fallacy that they are equal?
On a pool paying with luck based, 10 days is much much safer then 1 day of 10 ph.
Speculation over rental prices, pool luck, etc really has no bearing on the question. Generating 10PH/s in 24 hours, or that same 10PH/s over 240 hours ends up giving you the same number of hashes, and therefore the same number of chances of finding a block.
At the current difficulty, you'd expect to find a block every 5.684 hours with 10PH/s.
At the current difficulty, you'd expect to find a block every 56.84 hours with 1PH/s.
Whichever way you slice it, at the end of the hashing period, you'd expect to find 4.22 blocks, given the difficulty remains the same.
At the current difficulty, you'd expect to find a block every 5.684 hours with 10PH/s.
At the current difficulty, you'd expect to find a block every 56.84 hours with 1PH/s.
Whichever way you slice it, at the end of the hashing period, you'd expect to find 4.22 blocks, given the difficulty remains the same.
It s hard to answer this one, it would depend on difficulty, pool luck, uptime, etc.
I would go with 10 PHS.
I would go with 10 PHS.
what has higher chances of finding a block?
Same assuming consistent difficulty
In perfect world this would be true. But if you do all in a day, your risk is greater as it's not spread out over the 10 day's assuming dealing with pool with luck and same difficulty.
But with 10 day's you are actually spreading out you chance of finding block. So less possibility of a bad streak ruining profits. You can have the average luck based on 10 day's instead off 1.
So same ... yes. But if doing one day you are betting a lot of you having good luck with that rental.
This is Gambler's fallacy
I rather have 1 phs, since in theory both results vary based on constant difficulty right.
The reason I`d have a smaller performance is the investment risk, so I can buy bitcoin at the same time as it drops more. I rather have more purchasing power in fiat while doing both.
The reason I`d have a smaller performance is the investment risk, so I can buy bitcoin at the same time as it drops more. I rather have more purchasing power in fiat while doing both.
So the short summary is:
"In theory there is no difference between 10PH/day or 10x 1PH/day"
"In practice there may be a discernible difference based on a bunch of other factors beside Bitcoin probabilities"
"In theory there is no difference between 10PH/day or 10x 1PH/day"
"In practice there may be a discernible difference based on a bunch of other factors beside Bitcoin probabilities"
what has higher chances of finding a block?
Same assuming consistent difficulty
In perfect world this would be true. But if you do all in a day, your risk is greater as it's not spread out over the 10 day's assuming dealing with pool with luck and same difficulty.
But with 10 day's you are actually spreading out you chance of finding block. So less possibility of a bad streak ruining profits. You can have the average luck based on 10 day's instead off 1.
So same ... yes. But if doing one day you are betting a lot of you having good luck with that rental.
rental pricing, hardware wear&tear, mobsters coming to take your 10ph away (ha-ha! to the funny farm...), etc. don't factor into the question as asked, though.
If the question is limited to "what has higher chances of finding a block?", then jl2012 touches on the only key variable: the difficulty. Provided the difficulty is the same in both time periods, then the statistical odds are practically the same.
The 'X in 10 Days' does have a higher likelihood of encountering a difficulty change (up or down), but then it's back to speculating which of those it is; at which point any speculation (including the aforementioned) is game, and OP's question would change fundamentally.
If the question is limited to "what has higher chances of finding a block?", then jl2012 touches on the only key variable: the difficulty. Provided the difficulty is the same in both time periods, then the statistical odds are practically the same.
The 'X in 10 Days' does have a higher likelihood of encountering a difficulty change (up or down), but then it's back to speculating which of those it is; at which point any speculation (including the aforementioned) is game, and OP's question would change fundamentally.
what has higher chances of finding a block?
complicated. I would argue the variables are more complex then the question is.
I would prefer the 10 day 1 ph approach. As with this much hash 2, 3, 4, 5 blocks could be hit.
10 ph in a day may burn up so quickly you lose out on multiple blocks chance.
Also as others have said flat vs decreasing vs increasing hash rates.
How about a 10 day session gives you more time to see a mistake if one was made.
Also renting 10 ph will push the rental price up
renting 1 ph may not push the rental price up.
A 10 ph rental may attract a ddos attack due to its very big size.
what has higher chances of finding a block?
Same assuming consistent difficulty
Yes.
If the difficulty is increasing, mining faster over a short period of time is better.
If the difficulty is decreasing, mining over a longer period slowly is better.
A block?
10 Phs has higher chance.
10 Phs has higher chance.
what has higher chances of finding a block?
Same assuming consistent difficulty
what has higher chances of finding a block?
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