Topic: 1.2 Ghash for sale (Read 4148 times)

The prices of the bitcoin has dropped more than half when this thread was first started, I guess it is no longer valid at such pricing.

Nice necro brah.

What happens if by luck you find more coins than expected? There is no obvious way of checking that you don't steal them.

Renting ghash doesn't make sense and that's excluding the price!

+1

Got two words for ya: RIP OFF.

If I rent for a day how much does it cost me and how much do I get paid back in returns?

actually you can get the estimated next difficulty by going here:

http://blockexplorer.com/q/estimate

and anyone who follows the Bitcoin world closely can get a pretty good idea that difficulty has stabilized and wont go up again dramatically unless the values spike up really high again.

Because, as anyone who has actually mined coins can tell you, time is of the essence and there is more to it than simply looking at wikipedia hash rate charts.

"Why would you lease me your hashing at a monthly rate that is less than you would receive yourself from mining?"

Answer - Because I already have the equipment and I'll keep it when the lease is over.  You get the future coins, I get the instant cash that I can use for whatever I want.

"Conversely, why would I lease your hashing at a monthly rate that is more than I would receive from the value of the coins?"

Answer - You don't know where difficulty is going and you certainly don't know where the exchange rate is going.  You're making decisions on assumptions as though they are fact when they are really nothing more than speculation.  You might be speculating correctly, but spare me the, "I can't predict the future mentality."  You're as bad a Kiwi thinking he can beat the math month over month.

Oh, sure, people are trying to lease hash rates. What I meant was, if you look at the amount of money being spent on leasing computer equipment versus leasing computer *output* (of any sort), there's no real comparison.

Here's the problem which nobody has successfully addressed: Why would you lease me your hashing at a monthly rate that is less than you would receive yourself from mining? Conversely, why would I lease your hashing at a monthly rate that is more than I would receive from the value of the coins?

See, either way somebody loses. Thus, there can be no trust, because there is no mutual benefit. Business 101.

#1 - fasttxdivorce.com - That's me.  I don't defraud people; doing so puts my license at risk.

#2 - Then no mining contracts would ever make financial sense...  The reality is that people operate on preference and if they prefer 30 days of 1.2 Ghash (starting instantly when the deal is made) over either buying coins directly (setting up accounts, waiting for confirmations, etc...), having a rig in their house (a difficult proposition indeed), or keeping their $750, then my deal would make sense to them.

Well, so then I must have been on a different forum where a couple of guys offered exactly this: leasing hash rates, a.k.a. mining contracts. Actually it's because it makes a lot sense — not just for the seller but for the buyer as well. Personally I started setting up such a service as well… and I don't see a problem in offering such thing. It's (almost) just a matter of the right price, no? And trust of course.

You have ignored the bulk of my two primary criticisms:

#1 Why would anybody trust you?

#2 Why would this deal make financial sense to you? Since it's strictly about mining abilities, either you lose or the customer loses. The only business deals that make sense are when both parties win.

All the hand waving and straw-man erecting in the world will not resolve those fundemental issues.

I'm just saying that most of the criticisms leveled on me are asinine.  The only legit one is that my fee is too high, in which case I won't sell anything.  There's nothing stopping potential buyers from offering a lower fee over PM.

The others are just bad criticism.

1-  "I get more coins per day with less Ghash."  - Wrong.
2-  "For that money, people could make their own machines." - ... Only if they can find the equipment today at the prices of 2 months ago.  Unlikely.
3-  "For that money, people could just buy coins." - Which makes sense if you think that the difficulty level will go dramatically up over the next 3 months or the exchange rate will stay the same.  If on the other hand, you want coins but don't want to pay $19.50 for them and think the difficulty might go down, my rates are competitive.  No one knows the future; I only know what my current capabilities are.
4-  "People can just lease equipment for the next 2+ years... at X amount per month."  Yeah right.

Heh. Ok man. You must be right, since you have a psuedo-response for every post. I'm sure people will be knocking down your door, now that they've seen the depths of your unassailable logic.

Comparing apples to oranges then, aren't you.

Nobody leases hash rates. They lease equipment. Typical lease rates are around 1/10th-1/12th of the purchase price, per month, with a multi-year agreement.

Please direct everyone to a place that offers 1.2 Ghash for $75 per 30 day lease.  I would gladly lease that.

Let me explain why nobody will be leasing from you:

- You're some guy on a forum. What assurances do I have that if I send you this (substantial) amount of money, you will hold up your end of the bargain? (this is honestly as far as 99.9% of the people would get in the cost/benefit analysis).

- Because you're not leasing the hardware, just the bitcoin return, one has to consider the math and motivations and they will see that you have to be trying to scam people. Let me explain. Because you're providing only the bitcoin return (and not just leasing computers for general purposes that have AMD GPUs...which would lease for 1/10th the rates you're asking, by the way), it's purely an issue of math. In order for this deal to make sense compared to simply taking the $750 and buying bitcoins on an exchange, there would need to be a substantial margin available. In order for their to be a substantial margin available to your customers, you would have to be willingly taking a loss compared to just mining yourself and keeping the coins.

Basically, in order for this to be worth it for a customer, it requires you deliberately losing money. When somebody proposes a business deal that clearly would result in them losing money, HEAD FOR ZEE HILLS.

Basically, you're looking to take advantage of people. So gtfo.

Gsus, this is ridiculous. 60 seconds on IRC can answer this whole thing. You've wasted more energy just firing up your calculators than actually generating the coins:

hawks5999> ;;bc,gen 1000000
The expected generation output, at 1000000 Khps, given current difficulty of 877226.66666667 , is 1.14660032441 BTC per day and 0.0477750135172 BTC per hour.
;;bc,gen 1200000
The expected generation output, at 1200000 Khps, given current difficulty of 877226.66666667 , is 1.3759203893 BTC per day and 0.0573300162207 BTC per hour.

You don't understand.  You might as well say that on average, you can win 3 out of every 10 Powerball lotteries with 1 ticket each draw.  And if a statistician tells you that you won't, what would your reply be?  "Just you wait!  All I need are ten drawings!  You'll see!"

I'll be very interested to see these "statistics..."

Sorry, these numbers are statistically possible - BUT they are improbable!
This means, he could be even so lucky to find 10 blocks solo in one day.

In the longer run however (depending on where he is mining) his income will come closer and closer to the expected level.

So yes:
It is possible to gain more BTC with 1 GH/s than someone with 1.2 GH/s on a lucky/unlucky (depending on who you are) day.
It is far less likely to gain more in a week (actually VERY unlikely) than someone with 200 MH/s more.
It is nearly impossible to have a 1 month luck streak - there might be however people out there, that are experiencing this.


Think of it as the coin toss example:

Tossing a coin just 4 times makes it quite likely that an imbalance is visible.
If you toss it 1 million times, it is far less likely that there is a significant imbalance between heads and tails.

24 hours are just a too small sample size - especially considering you're probably comparing pool payouts and not shares submitted!

I haven't even provided statistics. I haven't finished my 24 hour run yet, for the third time...

Sukrim - You're correct as long as current trends hold and difficulty doesn't decrease somewhere along the way.  There are no guarantees.

Now can you confirm for me, kiwi, and any potential confused readers that kiwi's figures are statistically impossible?

I wrote about buying coins (buying computer hardware is also not that hard in non-US parts of the world by the way - this is why I expect difficulty to rise still...) on exchanges like MtGox or Tradehill. There's no mention of buying hardware in my post.

Once again:
At 0 growth worldwide from this day on, your customer pays ~18.17 USD per mined BTC.

If at any point in these 30 days the USD per BTC rate falls below ~18 on MtGox, it would have been wiser to send the 750 USD there and just place an offer @ 18 USD with the money than paying you. Especially considering that it takes you 30 days to deliver the full amout.

Currently the network is NOT steady, it grows. By over 4% per day. If this continues, your customers will get around 25 BTC, meaning they pay 30 USD/BTC. What's your added value compared to just walking to MtGox and getting 50% more Bitcoins directly in the wallet than waiting 30 days for Bitcoins that effectively cost (taking current numbers into consideration) 30 USD/BTC?

Oh, and by the way, a tipp:
You could save a lot on electricity and noise if you just take the money of your customers to MtGox, buy Bitcoins and send them slowly each day. You will with these prices still have a few left after the contract ends and you don't even need hardware!

If you do the 24 hour run and we compare results I can prove it. Obviously there is nothing for me to compare right now, I haven't even finished a 24 hour run as mentioned previously.

My point is, if you are going to leash the hashing power to someone, at least be honest with how much you can generate.

Kiwi, telling me that you don't like my proposal is one thing.  But at this point, you're basically telling me (and potentially dozens of noobs who don't know any better) that you've found a way to cheat the system.  If you know something we don't, kindly tell us.  Prove that 2+2=5 for you when it equals 4 for everyone else.  Prove it and sell the info here.  People would pay good money to make greater than 1.38BTC per day at this current difficulty level per 1Ghash.  Otherwise, stop with the nonsense.

Let me guess, your day job is selling roulette systems to rubes on the Vegas strip?

You can do all the math you want but in the end the most accurate and reliable way of testing is actually doing it.

Sure I can sit here and do calculations all day about my potential profit but I can never verify it until I do it.

Because neither of us have finished a 24 hour run...

Just face it, you're not profiting, and no one is going to "lease" the hashing power from you. No need to continue justifying your claim.

And if the potential renter can find a way to produce 1.2 Ghash very quickly in the face of skyrocketing GPU costs, ever limiting supplies, and inherent difficulty in maintaining the system, then more power to him.  Once again, this is for people who don't want to build a rig that will be hashing away (heat, noise, etc...) in their kitchen for the foreseeable future.

Buying coins now for 750 USD at 20 USD per BTC: 37,5 BTC

Renting 1200 MH/s for 30 days, estimating that difficulty stays constant (which it most likely WON'T!):

50 / ( (877226.66666667 * 2 ^ 32) / ( 1200 * 1000000 * 60 * 60 * 24 * 30 ) ) = 41.2776117 BTC

This means you buy bitcoins at
750 / 41.2776117 = 18.1696559 USD/BTC
at best (constant difficulty)
For every increase in difficulty you pay this much more per BTC. (50% increase? You pay ~27 USD/BTC!)

Now, if difficulty goes up (and it will!), you are very soon making a worse deal than buying directly.
You are making an even worse deal if the USD/BTC rate falls below 18 USD/BTC in these 30 days, as you could buy then directly and at once.

Math done.

One of the biggest problems with these lease deals, and I've talked about it before, is that you're taking on all the risk without getting the full benefit.

If bitcoin crashes hard then you basically lose everything. You don't even have salvage hardware to fall back on. If bitcoin skyrockets then you'd have been better off buying them. So already the only scenario this pays in is if they stay relatively stable and in that case you need some really good returns relative to buying your own rig to make it worth it since you're taking all the risk. Not only do you not get better returns with this deal than buying your own rig you actually get worse.

Just so I understand, your retort to my irrefutable mathematical evidence is, "Well how about we wait a day and just write down what we mine?"  No thanks.  I'll just stick to the math.

By the way, you've not provided any statistical evidence, so I don't know what it is you're claiming that I'm denying.

Ok, so mine today for 24 hours and I'll do the same, and then report back to me how much you've made

You can't deny statistical evidence.

Let's do a little math, my grammar impaired friend.

But first, let's enter your information into our trusty calculator...

http://www.alloscomp.com/bitcoin/old_calculator.php

At 1 Ghash, you'll find a block roughly every 43.5 days.  There are 50 coins per block.  Divide 50 by 43.5 to find out your coins per day and what do you know...  you'll get approximately 1.14BTC per day, on average.  My guess is that you're on Slush's pool or something and your previous shares are being credited to you, only you're forgetting that those shares were earned at the previous difficulty.

At 1.2 Ghash, I will find a block every 36.5 days.  There are 50 coins per block.  Divide 50 by 36.5 and well I'll be... 1.2 Ghash will net you about 1.38BTC per day, only .02BTC more than my offer based on other rough estimates.  So how about we make a deal.  I'll update my daily payout offer at the current difficulty level to 1.38 per day, and you stop accusing me of ripping people off.

If my math is incorrect, let me know.  Otherwise, learn more about the system before spouting off.

Lol this guy is ripping you off, I'm getting more than that at this current difficulty level with 1 GH/s.

At the current difficulty level, the payout (according to my calculations) will be roughly 1.36BTC per 24 hour period.  If the difficulty level changes during your lease time, the payout will adjust as well, exactly as if you'd been mining yourself.

what is your payout level?

yea everything u said its true its not that easy as they make it look like ... but even so you should check your prices, i think they are still high.
thanks ...

Well, first, because you can only build a machine in theory for that money.  Try finding the appropriate cards, motherboards, and power supplies in your town to get 1.2 Ghash, as in, right now.  I live in one of the largest cities in the United States and it's beyond a hassle.  I've got local dealers trying to sell 5870's for $625.00.  You can go online, but by the time you realize that your backordered Tigerdirect cards will not be arriving for at least 1 month, rather than the 5-7 days they quote, the difficulty level will have increased who knows how many times.

Time and price are of the essence and mining equipment is very hard to come by for a lot of people.

Then, assuming you can get the parts right away, you have to build the system, which will be a pain for many people (especially people who've never built a rig before).  Only then can you even start mining.  And when you do begin to mine, there will be a series of loud, hot, open motherboards and wires all over the place.  This doesn't bother me; it probably does bother the wives of many would-be miners.  Aside from the other issues (downtime, pool attacks, persistent monitoring of miners, etc...), like with a car, some people just prefer to lease, rather than own.

With me, I start crediting your account the moment you pay me (and you begin receiving your daily payout the day your payment clears).  Moreover, you don't have to own, maintain, etc... any of the equipment.


At current rates... sure.  Investing in mining is for people who believe the exchange rate will go higher.

I don't get it. You make less than $750/month mining with 1.2 GH/s.

i dont mean to be a hater

but you can build a machine that will do that speed an more for about a thousand bucks
so why should we lease yours for a short time?

Willing to do 30/60/90 day leases on my 1.2 Ghash.

30 day = $750
60 day = $1250
90 day = $1600

Daily payout is guaranteed.

Accepts DWOLLA, Paypal, and Credit Cards.

Daily payout begins after payment is cleared, but your mining begins immediately after payment is made.