Author

Topic: 2 weeks, 40% loss of market cap on alts (Read 755 times)

hero member
Activity: 798
Merit: 1000
‘Try to be nice’
August 18, 2014, 02:37:31 PM
#2
; D

no features - its "boring"

oh wait there's the:

-  "i'm not losing constantly" feature

and the

- "i didn't buy a fuck tard monopoly" feature.

and the

- "stick your features up your cunt" feature.

^^^^^

these are all new Quark features - i've just installed them.
sr. member
Activity: 364
Merit: 250
August 18, 2014, 12:58:04 PM
#1
Since I started trading alts, it has always frustrated me that there was no decent index to gauge the market.  As a trader, I could only look at the value of my portfolio.  It is impossible to compare to the market as a whole.

So, for the last month, I've been compiling some indexes and working on various strategies to measure the market as a whole.  There are a couple out there, but they include BTC, which is a double-whammy since most alts are priced on a per BTC basis.  Also, since BTC is 95% of the total crypto market, these indexes track BTC more closely than the general alt market.

I started two weeks ago with my current set of calculations.  Maybe I should stop, because the market has taken a big fat shit since that time  We've seen an evaporation of about $2 billion in crypto market cap:

Index 1: cap-weighted, includes all cryptos except BTC is now 61.92
Index 2: cap-weighted, includes all cryptos except BTC and LTC is now 69.88

(These indexes are imperfect because coinmarketcap has added 5 or 6 cryptos in the last eleven days, which skews them a little high.  Interesting that the HUGE dump by LTC has such an impact, which is why index 2 is not quite as ugly...no LTC)

Index 3: cap-weighted, includes a basket of 31 NON-LTC cryptos selected by cap/volume metrics is now 63.86
Index 4: cap-weighted, includes the basket of 31 PLUS LTC is now 58.31

(I think Index 3 is actually the closest to what I'm trying to accomplish, which is to judge the general movement of the alt market as a whole.  I created Index 3 and intentionally left out LTC because it was so much larger than the rest of the alts and I wanted to gauge the movement of my portfolio against a representative sample.  Again, note that LTC influenced lower.)

Index 5: price-weighted version of Index 3 is now 56.01
Index 6: price-weighted version of Index 4 is now 54.72

(Dow Jones is price-weighted.  S&P, Russell, most others are cap weighted.  I just set these up to see if there would be much difference.  Again, LTC provides downward weight.)

Meta index is 60.78.  This contains elements of all above. 

Will now re-balance the basket.  I can already see some that will be added based on cap/volume metrics and some will be going away.  You can PM me if you want that list.  I'm happy to post in thread if anybody gives a shit, as this isn't a market-mover like when the S&P 500 announces their additions/deletions.

TL:DR If your crypto portfolio is down by less than 37-40% in the last two weeks, you are probably beating the market.  Good trading!
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