Topic: 2014 World Fiat Collapse? (Read 2488 times)

Internet and a War would actually create a World Fiat Collapse and a Digital Fiat Collapse but I guess the counterargument is that if that ever occurred we have bigger problems to worry about than if our cryptocurrency is valueless.

As an aside guess that is a globalism vs nationalism argument in regard to fiat and digital money.

It's tough to put a date on it. I expect within 5 years, but it could be this year, it could be 15. Either way, stock up on as much silver, gold, food, supplies, etc as you can, as soon as you can.

As much as I love Bitcoin, it will be fairly useless during an economic collapse unless >25% of your nation uses it. If the internet goes down, you will have to have paper wallets made, and have a trading partner who trusts you enough to take your word that the address still has the balance you claim.

Well, I wasn't saying that, so much. But we do have very serious systemic issues that I feel like you aren't really addressing in depth.

I don't think most people are as "comfy" as you believe them to be, that is an assumption based on class privilege. And there are some trends that are going to tend to negate any of that effect as most jobs and professions will be automated before long which will eliminate the tax base and consumerism as a social function and that in itself is going to entail some major social change and, yes, perhaps even getting off of the sofa once in a while.

It seems either violence or a slide into irrelevance are inevitable if we only react sluggishly after the fact instead of being proactive in meeting the challenges we face..

 

Yes, systems can and do get replaced all the time. Like the bretton-woods system being implemented, and then replaced. Meanwhile life goes on. I think violent revolution is unlikely in the Western world... seriously, who's gonna get up from their comfy lifestyles and risk their lives? Not gonna happen.

It is not hubris to disagree with all the doom prophets around here.

self-correcting doesn't mean we get to go on like always, it means our system is eradicated and replaced with system that is more fit.

Your responses are simply hubris

In 5-10 years they might get rid of the nickel.  Canada got rid of our penny last year.

Terrorism is a minor footnote, irrelevant other than for Western overreactions to it. Small groups of crazy people have always carried out crazy violence against others, in most any civilization throughout history. Your chance of being killed by terrorism is less than your chance of being killed by lightning, or whatever the stat is.

US incarceration rates are an anomaly among Western nations, and indicative only of flawed policies regarding crime and punishment, which can and will eventually be corrected.

I agree that human societies and "life itself" are systems of a "self-correcting nature", which is why I'm not worried. Any system out there that is too wrong will fall, and be replaced with something better. Like tyrannical monarchies, like communism, flawed systems wither and die, either from internal resistance or due to the indisputable inferiority of the results they produce compared to external competitors.

Take "terrorism" for example. It is simply resistance to economic dominance by the core industrial nations. Blow-back, so to speak, from actions take to secure free trade ie imperialism.

This is an example in the many ways the social order is breaking down. You mention that crime is at all time low. Well, incarceration rates in the US are at levels unprecedented in previous historical periods and the police have been militarized to curtail behavior that is deemed counterproductive to industrial production and property ownership.  

We are taking corrective action in order to "solve" the crises that are result of our previous "corrective" actions. It's creating a negative feedback loop essentially. The system of human society, and life itself even, is of a self correcting nature, if you understand the ramification of that.

Life is materially better for a higher % of the world's population than it's ever been. Rates of starvation and disease are down all around the world, life expectancies are drastically up in all but the very very worst few countries (compared even to just a few decades ago), rates of child morality are way down. In the developing world, more people are being raised out of poverty every day than ever before. And in the West, the "poor" today live like the aristocrats of a short time ago.

People have no historical perspective when they perceive all the doom and gloom.

Good old media Guns ^_^ That is a good one

Depends on who you mean when you say "we". If you are one a of the billions who bear the burden of the unpaid external costs that allow a few live in unprecedented luxury it ain't so golden.

The cost of energy or resources in units of fiat currency changes. We have inflation, etc. Just because there's 2% more currency this year than last year doesn't mean there's also 2% more resources in play... there are many other dynamic factors involved.

In regards to society "breaking down"... people always say this, but there's no evidence of it actually happening. In fact, crimes of almost all kinds are at their lowest in decades in many Western countries. And as for the developing world, wealth is being rapidly created there and a new worldwide middle class of hundreds of millions of people is rapidly emerging.

We are living in the golden age of humankind.

Yes, but things usually drag out for years. The U.S. has had an unsustainable economic policy for decades, but still no revolution. The media is still supporting the current system. Critics have been proven right, but still nobody listens.

In 5-10 years they might need to slash 3 zeros from the USD and call it the new dollar.

 

"Climate change" not global warming it was a very long, cold winter. 
...eventually money is going to run out.
Money has already run out, we are running on MT.

If everything were to continue as is, I agree with you.

However, global warming is going to bring more expensive disasters and eventually money is going to run out.

The number used to enumerate the debt is directly related to usage of resource or energy. It represents deficits in both items.

So, it's not "just a number" at all. It is a symbolic representation of how much resources are used by a particular process. If the numbers don't all add up then society's goals and the means to legitimately attain them will not correspond, a condition called "anomie", which is exactly what our society is currently facing.

Colloquially when people talk about how society is "breaking down", or the family unit is "breaking down" they are referring to this sociological process. People begin to ignore social norms when they figure out they are useless, or worse, detrimental to their own individual interests and thus "society breaks down". Right now it's just people being a littler ruder or ignoring social conventions. But if it gets bad enough even the most deeply ingrained social taboos such as the prohibition against cannibalism, and the social evolution that caused humans to stop looking at each other as a food source could be erased, just like that. 

If you can't see how this relates to the social situation in the developing world you have your head in the sand.

Except that eventually, men with guns do their best to enforce that debt (at least the portion owed to the well-connected.)

When society tries to service trillions of dollars of debt when there's no possible way to do so, problems occur. Among these is economic collapse.

Now, if the debt were just done away with, then yes, there wouldn't be much (immediately) to worry about. I don't see that happening though.

Debt is just a number, a value stored in a computer database. A number can get as big as you want it to get. If you were talking about exponential growth in the use of resources or energy, etc, I'd agree, that's mathematically not possible to sustain forever. But if we're just talking about currency/debt, the numbers can just as easily be quadrillions as billions, can just as easily be 10^100000 instead of quadrillions, and society will look no different.

60% is huge deflation. 10% drop is a correction.

I think the same way! I can't see the substitute for fiat nowadays , even Bitcoin can't replace it - it is too volatile, too young to become a common payment instrument , nowadays it is good as additional payment system

That's a bubble

2008 - 2009 was our warning I think we're fast approaching the point of no return now, in fact, looking at the numbers I think we've already reached our peak, we're probably just going to go down from here.

Collapse no, a gradual decline in influence yes

Not likely

The fiat world will stumble on for another generation or so

I don't think it would be revolution. Simply after awhile people would slowly move to better alternatives of fiat. I actually happens right now. Problem is monetary system is support by government and we already saw what government can do at recent crisis. With unlimited support from taxpayers and loans it can keep system alive for very long time.

The early 1970's?
Yes
The Libertarian Party was founded in 1972 by people who "gave up" on Nixon and the Republicans.



I've gotten used to ignoring the "pending doom", but the word "frightening" does sound pretty accurate.
Will rose colored glasses help?

Some would say that the economic history of the U.S. has been a repeated series of efforts to kick the can down the road ever since Nixon closed the gold window in, what, the early 1970's?

If so, the fact that they've stretched things this far, to 2014, is frightening. I really have a hard time seeing it lasting another 10 years, but who knows... maybe some new energy tech will miraculously appear and stave it off for another decade or two (again, yes, making the inevitable crash that much worse.)

Some of them remember me talking about it in 1989. 

Tell your friends and family.  Speak up for what you believe in.

The longer the Collapse is delayed the worse it will be.
It has been delayed for decades. 

The answer is yes.  It would be wise to prepare, the sooner the better.

I remember preparing for the death of the dollar in 2012
Then the silver bubble popped... Then I found bitcoin

Sure there is: the simple mathematical fact that an ever-increasing expansion of debt (which the current system is based on) is unsustainable.

It has to end, either voluntarily or involuntarily. And since TPTB don't seem too keen on letting the system end voluntarily....

As far as I can tell, there's no reason to believe fiat currencies/economies are headed for any kind of collapse. The world's economies have weathered the last recession like they did every one before it and are now back on the path of growth and prosperity. Yes, there's always issues to address with the nature of banking, the extent and type of regulations, the security, cost, and speed of transactions, etc, but these are all evolutionary changes that will happen over time, not requiring any collapse or revolution.

With any luck, cryptocurrencies like bitcoin will exist in parallel, allowing a different kind of functionality, and a different sets of advantages and disadvantages, to government fiat money.

1. Think of how much would have to change in our nation technology wise in order to completely do away with paper bills and coins.  Then realize how much more advanced the US is compared to many other countries.  This would prevent any change for a few decades.

2. You cannot have individuals in-charge of mining your sole currency.  Simple fact, energy is expensive in the US and Europe compared to the rest of the world.  We're any crypto currency made the sole currency (and therefore incredibly more valuable than any coin currently is), you would rapidly approach the equilibrium of cost to create a coin = value ofa  coin.  Therefore, all mining would be done in pollution friendly countries that rely on sources like coal to power computers.  Good luck convincing citizens of the developed world to hand over this much power and wealth to China.

3. Contrary to Libertarian beliefs, there are actually positives that come along with a central bank, and economies can go to hell really fast if someone's not making sure that there's an appropriate amount of money floating around.

4. If any coin was widespread, it would not be that much different than current currency.  If anything, and we did end up switching to some crypto currency, it would not shock me in the least if it was through government manipulation into some code that they not only controlled the production of, but could track with ease as well.

More like by the year 2020!

Equality is so far off that there will either be obesity or starvation, sorta the way things are adapting now.

A moneyless system is inevitable, but it will take more than 5 years and will be accompanied by a lot of political turmoil as those whose power is vested in the current system struggle to retain control of their power.

...

As we saw in the cases of Rome and Britain, it can take a long time for an empire to disintegrate.  That means that it is perfectly possible to have a good life and enjoy things even if things are heading into the crapper.

And, really, it is up to each of us to look after ourselves and our loved ones.

(My vote was 5 + years)

And what would FIAT be replaced with in 5 years??

Within 20 years all work will be done by software or machines. Human labor will be virtually unnecessary.

We have a market based system that depends on consumerism to function. Yet in 20 years there will be no jobs for anyone to do. All of the professions and everything else will be done by machines. If people do not have money then how will they buy products and fuel consumerism?

Conclusion:
Major political and social change is on the horizon.

I don't know how about fiat, but cryptos are crashing hard today, both btc and ltc  

The Four Horsemen - Renegade Economy


If this was launched on NATIONAL TV in the United States, Bitcoin might rise to $10,000+ ~ !

Political scientist, interesting, where do you work? Where did you obtain your degree?

Depends on how strong the propaganda I mean media is pushed

I suspect the poll  was really asking about "collapse" or even "restructuring" as opposed to "revolution."

With that in mind, I voted 3-5 years; things are still way too comfortable for too many people for any significant portion of U.S. citizens to actually generate enough pressure to initiate change.

2-5 years would be my educated guess as a political scientist.

To any current coin, never.

"It is well enough that people of the nation do not understand our banking and monetary system, for if they did, I believe there would be a revolution before tomorrow morning." -Henry Ford