Topic: [2015-11-26] Thanksgiving Session (Read 259 times)

Thanksgiving Session

Bitcoin had a highly volatile Thanksgiving session. On OKCoin we opened at $328.90 and slowly rallied until we hit a high of $369.70 around mid-day. But this $40 dollars rally came to an abrupt stop here as prices tumbled back down to hit $340.55 just few hours later. We are currently quoted at $344.54 on this exchange. - See more at: http://www.forexnews.com/blog/2015/11/26/bitcoin-in-volatile-thanksgiving-session/#sthash.EMv3X4Wr.dpuf

On the chart above we can see today’s trading session on OKCoin. On rival exchange BTC-E we had an equally volatile day, with BTC/USD peaking at $366.50 then crashing to $329.94, all in the span of few hours.

Futures premiums spiked today, with the longer-dated December 25th contract rallying to a high of $382.62. This contract is trading at $363.60 dollars at the moment. But as we’ve written previously, paradoxically futures are somewhat of a lagging indicator. When prices surge like they did today, futures will start to price in a large premium. But this doesn’t say much about future price movements. Futures premiums are more of a confirmation tool then anything else.

Despite the large gains today, the price action and the major reversal point to a blowout top. On OKCoin prices are currently trading at $25 dollars below the top. On BTC-E we’re at $29 dollars. A resumption of the move higher is unlikely in the near future, although stranger things have happened in bitcoin land.

A breakout above the $400 round figure (OKCoin) would technically start a new BTC rally. Under that scenario the new uptrend would be negated by a break below the $307 swing low. The large risk of almost $100 dollars means that trading sizes should be adjusted accordingly, in order to successfully maneuver in this highly volatile trading environment.

On the lower end a break below $290 dollars would start a new downtrend. In this case we have large risk as well, the new downtrend would only be negated on a break above today’s high at $369.70 dollars per coin. The next few days will be critical in determining whether we breakout or go back to boring daily ranges.


http://www.forexnews.com/blog/2015/11/26/bitcoin-in-volatile-thanksgiving-session/