Topic: [2017-04-11]Bitcoin Price to Hit $500,000 by 2030, Says Snapchat’s First Investo (Read 1171 times)

I used to believe a massive spike in price would occur when "~5 or 10 Million People" all realize it is their last chance to own an entire (1) Bitcoin. For that to ever happen the current endless "Bitcoin Civil War" BS needs to end.

I think they missed some factor in their calculation when they say that Bitcoin will hit $500,000 by 2030.  They ignore the resistance and other factor like competition, regulations and many more.  Aside from that, it is obvious that the adoption percentage is somehow just some make up figure since we really cannot tell how much percentage of adoption will increase.  So I guess this prediction is somehow a bit overboard.

In order for the price to reach +$10,000 levels, we must build up a massive user base in the coming 5-10 years. If we seriously want to consider levels higher than $10,000, we must focus on getting institutional investors to allocate a certain percentage of their portfolio to Bitcoin. ETF's would be a perfect way to enter for them, but we all know how the SEC rejected both of the ETF's last month.

There is a lot of nonsense in this article, notably the quote above.  In the last 15 years, Bitcoin transfer to foreign countries have grown an infinite number of times given that 15 years ago was 2002 and consequently there was no bitcoin so 0 bitcoin transfers. 0 to anything is an infinite growth rate.  Even discussing bitcoin 15 years ago just is nonsense.

As far as price growth, certainly it *could* be $500,000 in 2030.  Back in July 2010 you saw people who thought that $50 or $1000 was unreasonable and that it was a ponzi scheme, a scam etc.  Anything is possible and if usage grows, it becomes more likely, but it is just speculation.

It is nonsense. It doesn't make any sense to start talking about such prices while we still hover around the $1200 level. But it's not the first time that certain individuals make such insane predictions. It is years ago that we heard the Winklevoss twins say that they believe Bitcoin will be worth $100,000 within an X amount of time. Value at that time was around $100 if I'm not mistaken. By that time it was also known that they had like 100,000BTC in their reserve. I wonder if they would say the same if they didn't had that many coins.

If the USD is worthless, the bitcoin price will be millions or even billions.

if the usd becomes worthless, yes, btc can hit $500k. otherwise this is speculative nonsense at its finest

Bitcoin Price to Hit $500,000 by 2030, Says Snapchat’s First Investor
Hold on,  investors – you haven’t seen anything yet.

According to Peter Smith, Blockchain CEO/co-founder, and Jeremy Liew, Snapchat’s first investor, bitcoin’s price could hit $500,000 by 2030. The pair made their case for this projection to Business Insider.

There are several factors behind this projection.

Factors To Consider

Remittance transfers are one reason. Bitcoin transfers to foreign countries have nearly doubled in the past 15 years and account for 0.75% of GDP, according to the World Bank.

The duo claim bitcoin-based remittances will increase sharply as awareness builds.

Political uncertainty in the U.S., the U.K. and developing nations is another factor. As geopolitical risks increase, rising bitcoin awareness combined with ease of transport and continued strong market performance will boost consumer and investor interest in bitcoin.

The growth of mobile transactions is another factor. Non-cash transactions will jump from 15% to 30% over the next decade as smartphone use increases. The total number of smartphone users is expected to reach 1 billion by 2020.

GMSA, a global organization representing mobile phone operators, predicts 90% of new users will be from developing nations. Nearly everyone will be able to have a bank in their pocket. Bitcoin could account for half of these transactions.

Model Drivers For The Projection

Smith and Liew based their projection on the following model drivers.

1.A $1,000 bitcoin price in 2017.
2.The bitcoin user network will grow 61 times through 2030. A population of bitcoin users comprising 5% of the world’s population in 2030 will drive the price to $500,000 in 2030. From 2013 to 2017, the network grew from 120,000 users to 6.5 million users, nearly a 54-fold gain. Such growth would produce 400 million users in 2030.
3.The average bitcoin value per user will hit $25,000. When institutional investors cash in their bitcoins, bitcoin-based ETFs and trading by sophisticated investors will increase, pushing the average value to $25,000. With a current market cap of $17.4 billion and 6.5 million users, the average user now holds $2,515 of bitcoin.
4.The 2030 market cap is based on the number of bitcoin holders multiplied by the average held bitcoin value.
5.The cryptocurrency’s 2030 supply will be about 20 million.
6.The 2030 price and user count will total $500,000 and 400 million, respectively. The price is determined by taking the $10 trillion market cap and dividing it by 20 million bitcoins, the fixed supply.


Nothing’s Definite

The projections are not definite, considering things could go wrong. There has been a lot of negative news about bitcoin recently.

China, where most bitcoin trading takes place, has cracked down on trading. The three largest bitcoin exchanges have announced a 0.2% fee on all transactions, as well as blocking withdrawals from trading accounts.

The U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) rejected two bitcoin ETFs. Another proposed ETF is not expected to be approved.

Smith, however, thinks bitcoin is in its early stages. He said the SEC ruling was not a surprise. Winning such approval could take a long time.

Meanwhile, regulatory approval has occurred elsewhere. Bitcoin became legal payment in Japan on April 1.

Another obstacle is the hard fork, which could cause a split into two bitcoins, regular bitcoin and Bitcoin Unlimited.

Smith is not concerned about the hard fork since there are strong economic incentives to prevent it. He noted that the bitcoin blockchain has operated for more than seven years with no downtime, which no other back-end system operating at the same scale has accomplished.

While the price of bitcoin has been volatile compared to traditional currencies, it has always rallied. After rising 20% in the first week of 2017, it crashed 35% when China cracked down on trading. Since, then, it has recovered those losses and is up 25% for the year.
https://www.cryptocoinsnews.com/bitcoin-price-hit-500000-2030-says-snapchats-first-investor/