The price of Ethereum largely recovered from this week’s flash crash. Some call it a sell off in a secular bull market, others call it buying the dip. We call it: strong fundamentals, and by that we mean that the price surge is justified by demand driven dynamics. Because of that we stick to our long term Ethereum forecast of $1000.
Talking about fundamental strength in Ethereum, it is interesting to apply traditional relative strength ratios to cryptocurrencies. When analyzing traditional markets we look at the gold to silver ratio to identify which of the two is outperforming or to understand whether a bull market has started or ended. In stock markets the S&P 500 to Russell 2000 ratio is popular as a gauge of risk (the small cap Russell typically outpeformers when investors are in ‘risk on’ mode).
When it comes to cryptocurrencies the most popular way among analysts is to compare market caps. While that is a good indicator it is not the most valuable one in our view.
What really is valuable as an indicator is the price ratio, for instance the Ethereum to the Bitcoin price ratio. The reason why we prefer this ratio above a market cap comparison is that, bottom line, whatever the market cap, all that matters is price. The point is that price reflects supply and demand factors; price is the point where supply and demand find equilibrium.
The Ethereum to Bitcoin price ratio is shown on the following chart:
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