It’s not for the faint of heart. But with the Bitcoin price up more than 42% this month alone, and up 20% from its low just three days ago, the cryptocurrency’s returns have beaten just about everything available on the stock market, defying repeated warnings from the likes of J.P. Morgan CEO Jamie Dimon and former Fed chair Ben Bernanke. As of midday Saturday, Bitcoin was trading at nearly $6,200. Now, investors are fretting they’ll miss out on the windfall of a lifetime if they wait any longer.
Historically, of course, legendary investors such as Warren Buffett have advised against buying assets when their price is high, arguing that the best way to make money is to buy low, and, ideally, sell high. Yet a chart created by an influential analyst and investor illustrates why he predicts the Bitcoin price could go higher still — and in fact, may reach as high as $7,400 before its next significant dip.
The Bitcoin chart relies on technical analysis, a field of investing that is somewhat controversial because buying decisions are based on the movement of a particular stock or other asset, rather than on the fundamental valuation or future opportunity of the underlying company or security. While some investors reject this approach as trying to time the market — a notoriously difficult task — there is evidence that it can sometimes pay off.
And if there were ever a time to use technical analysis, it might be with Bitcoin, whose price is not tied to any company, nor pegged to any other currency or asset, nor even related to an actual use case. What’s more, the Bitcoin price, which largely trades on hype and abstract visions of its long-term potential, is not only exceptionally volatile, but tends to trade in an unusual undulating formation that enthusiasts have come to call “waves” — where a correction of as much as 30% is common between new highs.
In this case, JC Parets, a chartered market technician who is the president and founder of All Star Charts, observed that the price of Bitcoin has moved upward at intervals resembling the Fibonacci sequence, a famous mathematical pattern that also occurs in nature in everything from the inner spiral of a seashell to pinecones.
“Talk about Fibonacci—I mean, dude, does it get any cleaner than this?” Parets said last week in a presentation at the Stocktoberfest conference, hosted by the financial social media site Stocktwits in Coronado, Calif. With Fibonacci, the length of the next segment is equal to the sum of the two preceding segments. In Parets’ chart above, he shows that Bitcoin’s rallies, since the price surpassed its 2013 high, have followed a similar pattern, where each new leg up corresponds to a percentage increase as predicted by the Fibonacci series.
“I mean, guys, this is like to the penny,” Parets added. He breaks it down further in the chart below.
The prediction only holds, Parets maintains, if the Bitcoin price remains above roughly $4,700. But as long as it does, he believes Bitcoin could rise to at least about $7,400, as indicated in the chart. For now, though, Parets is giving Bitcoin a more conservative price target: $6,500.
“I don’t care if Bitcoin triples or goes to zero, I really don’t care at all, but from a risk-reward standpoint, I love it long,” he said. “If we’re above $4,700, we want to be long with a target of $6,500 — that’s a great risk-reward, let it go to zero after that!”
One caveat: Parets’ Bitcoin price prediction does not have any timeline attached, which means it could happen imminently, or not for years — as long as it continues to mirror the Fibonacci sequence.
“Yes, theoretically, it can hit our targets tonight,” he told Fortune after Bitcoin passed the $6,000 mark. “Who knows?”
http://fortune.com/2017/10/21/bitcoin-price-chart/