Topic: [2017-11-17] ‘Bubble’ Bitcoin ‘Fair Value’ is $100, Fumes Japan Post Bank CIO (Read 6989 times)

It's not the first not the last one. We will keep watching bitcoin rising. This one was very funny:) "Sago said the bank could consider buying bitcoin if it falls to $100"

Maybe because the cryptocurrency market is still in its infancy? The current bull market can easily extend for 1-2 years with tons
of new altcoins, ICOs, ICO scams and so on. This could still get bigger than the Dotcom Bubble.

However, I think his price estimation of 100 $ shows a lack of serious understanding of Bitcoin. The illegal economy of Bitcoin
(money laundering, tax evasion, black markets...) alone justifies a market cap that equates to a price of several hundred $. Even if
all legitimate use cases of Bitcoin (e.g. store of value, international payments...) were to disappear tomorrow a much higher BTC price
would be sustained due to the illegitimate use cases I mentioned above.

We will never see 100 $ / BTC prices again.

Always good to see people compare Bitcoin's market with the .com bubble back in the days, where businesses not making a single dime in profits were worth hundreds of millions, and even billions. However, if we look at the altcoin market, this does show very convincing similarities - shitcoins not serving any purpose aside from functioning as pump and dump tool are also worth billions. If he was mainly referring to altcoins in general instead of pointing at Bitcoin's 'fair value', I would even agree with him. Main point is that as long as Bitcoin is increasing in value, which will happen for plenty of more years, altcoins benefit as well, and thus the altcoin bubble will continue to swell.

Haha he's angry because he had missed the bus. He'd like to see $100 to get in and get rich on it going back to $8000, like it did between 2015 and now.
Bad news for you chief investment officer. You're not that good at investing if you're letting your anger drive you!

It's irrelevant how much money have put in to mine it.  That doesn't affect the future price.

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He's exaggerating here.  Bitcoin's current bubble is similar to the dotcom bubble in the sense that many companies are obsessed with working "in blockchain" rather than actually working for a reasonable purpose.  Many Internet-related companies in 1999 did the same.

However, he's exaggerating the magnitude of this, because the crypto market is several times smaller than the Internet market was at its peak in the bubble, and similarly to the dotcom bubble, there still are a fair number of reasonable companies.

His price of $100 also seems to be arbitrary.

Absolutely agree with your point of you
But it is interesting to see how is bitcoin continue to life

In order to philosophize he must know that the bladder is not worth anything. If he declares that bitcoin is worth 100 dollars then angling is not a bubble. The price of bitcoin is lower than the cost of its production and content. It seems to me that he's the one who knows nothing about cryptocurrency, but it became part of the anti-advertising of bitcoin.

I agree that the current price of bitcoin is greatly inflated and in this sense bitcoin is an ordinary bubble. This is clearly seen from the ratio of the price of bitcoin and altcoyins, which, in principle, are no worse than bitcoins, and by some parameters exceed it. The cost of bitcoin is clearly not justified and it can provoke opposition from individual states, as it strongly influences and destabilizes their financial system.

Is he saying $100 for its impact value? Believing that it is a bubble is fair, but why does he have to assign a fair value? And what the back does 'fair' value of Bitcoin mean? I think he is just venting out his frustration.

Katsunori Sago, the chief investment officer at Japan Post Bank, has joined the cadre of financial observers calling bitcoin a bubble, stating that bitcoin’s fair value should be around $100.

The banker went on to call the bitcoin bubble worse than the 1990s dot-com bubble.

Sago said the bank could consider buying bitcoin if it falls to $100, but it has no plans to short sell bitcoin on account of its volatility, in remarks reported by Reuters yesterday. Today, bitcoin price hit a new all-time high of $8,040.

Worse Than Dot-Com Bubble

Sago said there was a rally in dot-com shares in the 1990s, but people then were at least using the services of dot-com players like Yahoo and Rakuten, a Japanese Internet company.

Today, people he knows are “doing crypto-currency businesses,” but no one he knows is trading cryptocurrencies or using them in real life. In that sense, he said bitcoin is worse than the IT bubble.

Sago said one friend with no financial industry background recently asked his opinion on cryptocurrencies. The fact that people with no financial background ask such a question indicates the market is headed for trouble in a few months. He said he had similar experiences before the dot-com bubble burst in 2000 and before the peak in stock prices in 2007.

Bitcoin Could Hit $10,000

Bitcoin’s price could hit $10,000 before the CME Group launches bitcoin futures before the end of the year, Sago said. But he said it is hard to predict when the bubble will burst. Hence, the bank does not want to short bitcoin.

Blockchain is a great technology, he said, and bitcoin could eventually become a major settlement tool. But that could be more than a decade away.

Financial Observers Pile On

Morgan Stanley chairman and CEO James Gorman also recently claimed that bitcoin “doesn’t quite deserve the attention it is getting” at a time when the cryptocurrency is nearing all-time highs.

Sago and Gorman join a cadre of other bankers and financial figures who have been asked about bitcoin in a year where the cryptocurrency has firmly permeated into the mainstream and society as a store of value among retail investors.

Earlier this month, Societe Generale deputy CEO Severin Cabannes said bitcoin is clearly in a bubble, while Credit Suisse CEO Tidjane Thiam stated bitcoin is “the very definition of a bubble.”

Asked about bitcoin’s price gains this year, legendary investor Warren Buffet said there’s a “real bubble in that sort of thing.” The most infamous quote of all is left to JP Morgan Chase CEO Jamie Dimon, who said bitcoin is a fraud.
Source: https://www.cryptocoinsnews.com/japan-bank-cio-calls-bitcoin-a-bubble-pegs-true-market-value-at-100/