500k пoчeмy бы и нeт
Topic: [2018-01-06] How Likely Is It That Bitcoin Will Hit $500k In Three Years? (Read 156 times)
January 07, 2018, 10:44:34 AM
January 07, 2018, 09:36:52 AM
500k is crazy stupid, but 100K is more than possible
January 07, 2018, 09:27:14 AM
I thought John Mcafee predicted bitcoin can reach $1 Million in 3 years? it's not just $500K, but he was predicted it $500K before bitcoin reach $10,000.
Bitcoin market affected directly by some countries such as USA, South Korea, and Japan due to these countries has the biggest trading volume.
as long as these crypto-market run so well in this year, we can expect at least 100% increases from $14K to $28K by the end of the year.
if we're looking at the charts in last year, bitcoin can increase more than 1400% in a year, which mean it can't be predicted precisely.
Bitcoin market affected directly by some countries such as USA, South Korea, and Japan due to these countries has the biggest trading volume.
as long as these crypto-market run so well in this year, we can expect at least 100% increases from $14K to $28K by the end of the year.
if we're looking at the charts in last year, bitcoin can increase more than 1400% in a year, which mean it can't be predicted precisely.
January 07, 2018, 09:00:52 AM
All this improves liquidity and will attract short-sellers if the price starts rising up.
It's part of each developed asset class. I don't see entities going short on Bitcoin as a bad thing, mainly because of the fact that to a certain extent, it might actually make the market stronger. At this point it has yet to be proven, but at some point the different markets might end up taming each other. Bitcoin won't always remain in its current form, where I am confident in a more stable overall market in the very long run. This stability will then give people more incentive to start spending their coins, because that right now is severely lacking.
January 07, 2018, 02:50:42 AM
I think the upper bound quoted (10%) is rather high for the probability of Bitcoin hitting $500,000. I am not saying that it cannot happen, but given the change in scenario after the introduction of futures trading, I don't think it is likely, We even have options being written at exchanges like LedgerX. All this improves liquidity and will attract short-sellers if the price starts rising up.
January 06, 2018, 11:27:57 PM
I think that purely from the practical point of view of the state will not allow bitcoin to rise sharply to 500 000 dollars. Large price drops will have a negative destabilizing effect on the economies of countries and therefore they will introduce various restrictions on the circulation of bitcoin. This will not allow him to climb too high. On the other hand, why let bitcoin be pumped like a bubble? After. as it is blown away, it will hit the general image of the crypto currency.
January 06, 2018, 04:20:46 PM
Do you believe John McAfee is right about Bitcoin hitting $500,000 in 3 years? originally appeared on Quora: the place to gain and share knowledge, empowering people to learn from others and better understand the world.
Answer by Vladimir Novakovski, 8.5 years in hedge funds, on Quora:
It’s interesting that almost all existing analysis of cryptoassets are from the point of view of fundamentals (or lack thereof). It’s often useful to look at things quantitatively instead.
So here, what we really want to understand is the probability of bitcoin reaching $500,000. There are a few ways to do that.
First, we can assume a completely random process and take a “gambler’s ruin” perspective. What is the probability that a random process will hit $500,000 before it hits $0? Given that the price as of Dec 2017 is about $15,000, we’d get $15,000/$500,000 = 3%.
Another approach is to model price as a lognormal process, which is a reasonable assumption to make for a broad set of assets. See Why do prices and income follow a log-normal distribution?
We’d then need to estimate volatility and expected return of bitcoin. Expected return is harder to estimate — we can use the historical return, but that’s a pretty biased estimate. For example, if you pick a stock that performed the best out of the S&P 500 in the last 5 years, would you expect that stock to have the same expected return going forward? Mostly likely not. Same with bitcoin — unless you already made a prediction of its expected return before the really high realized return we see now, your Bayesian prior should be lower.
With that said, the general methodology of how to estimate distribution with a lognormal process for asset price is described here: John Young's answer to What is the bitcoin price prediction for 2019?
Based on this, depending on how liberal you are about estimating expected return, you’d be looking at a probability in the 1–10% range of reaching $500,000 in the next year.
Further methods would involve looking at option prices. Right now, there’s not a particularly liquid market for options yet, but with bitcoin futures opening today, that may change soon. With option prices, you’d actually be able to trade a call option with $500,000 strike, and the price of this option would roughly be proportional to the probability of reaching that level by a certain maturity date.
So — to summarize, we are probably looking at a range of 1–10% probability of reaching $500,000 in the next year, depending on how you model it. Beyond that, it’s harder to know, with changes happening to the market like introduction of futures, but eventually there may be a liquid market for making such predictions through options.
Source
Answer by Vladimir Novakovski, 8.5 years in hedge funds, on Quora:
It’s interesting that almost all existing analysis of cryptoassets are from the point of view of fundamentals (or lack thereof). It’s often useful to look at things quantitatively instead.
So here, what we really want to understand is the probability of bitcoin reaching $500,000. There are a few ways to do that.
First, we can assume a completely random process and take a “gambler’s ruin” perspective. What is the probability that a random process will hit $500,000 before it hits $0? Given that the price as of Dec 2017 is about $15,000, we’d get $15,000/$500,000 = 3%.
Another approach is to model price as a lognormal process, which is a reasonable assumption to make for a broad set of assets. See Why do prices and income follow a log-normal distribution?
We’d then need to estimate volatility and expected return of bitcoin. Expected return is harder to estimate — we can use the historical return, but that’s a pretty biased estimate. For example, if you pick a stock that performed the best out of the S&P 500 in the last 5 years, would you expect that stock to have the same expected return going forward? Mostly likely not. Same with bitcoin — unless you already made a prediction of its expected return before the really high realized return we see now, your Bayesian prior should be lower.
With that said, the general methodology of how to estimate distribution with a lognormal process for asset price is described here: John Young's answer to What is the bitcoin price prediction for 2019?
Based on this, depending on how liberal you are about estimating expected return, you’d be looking at a probability in the 1–10% range of reaching $500,000 in the next year.
Further methods would involve looking at option prices. Right now, there’s not a particularly liquid market for options yet, but with bitcoin futures opening today, that may change soon. With option prices, you’d actually be able to trade a call option with $500,000 strike, and the price of this option would roughly be proportional to the probability of reaching that level by a certain maturity date.
So — to summarize, we are probably looking at a range of 1–10% probability of reaching $500,000 in the next year, depending on how you model it. Beyond that, it’s harder to know, with changes happening to the market like introduction of futures, but eventually there may be a liquid market for making such predictions through options.
Source
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