Topic: [2018-07-10] Bitcoin Ownership in Canada is Up 72 Percent Since 2016 (Read 145 times)

The authors acknowledge the issues you cite. Headline writers are not bound by such niceties.

From the survey PDF:

"First,  our  methods  are  imprecise  in  measuring  a  person’s  Bitcoin  holdings.   Second,  and
related,  standard  errors  are  quite  large,  resulting  in  a  large  range  of  feasible  values.   In
particular,  the  95  per  cent  confidence  interval  for  the  share  of  Canadian  Bitcoin  in  2017
ranges  from  5.7  to  16.8.   Finally,  using  multiple  imputation  requires  the  assumption  that
missing values are missing “at random.”
Further, there are reasons to suspect that we are specifically overestimating total Bitcoin
holdings in Canada."

https://www.bankofcanada.ca/wp-content/uploads/2018/07/san2018-23.pdf

I have some other concerns also - I could find nothing to indicate whether respondents knew that the survey was sponsored by a central bank.
However, most central banks are actively hostile to crypto and the Bank of Canada is certainly among them. For example,
this is in the introduction to the survey publication itself(!):

"Actually, there is one more thing keeping me awake at night, which perhaps
I should mention, and that is all the noise I keep hearing about cryptocurrencies,
especially Bitcoin.  There is a lot of hype around Bitcoin, and markets are evolv-
ing  quickly  to  allow  wider  access,  including  to  retail  investors.  So  perhaps  you
will  allow  me  to  make  a  couple  of  points.  To  begin  with  basics,  the  term  ‘cryp-
tocurrency’ is a misnomer—‘crypto,’ yes, but ‘currency,’ no.  For something to be
considered a currency, it must act as a reliable store of value, and you should be
able to spend it easily.  These instruments possess neither of these characteristics,
so they do not constitute ‘money.’ ”
Governor Stephen S. Poloz, December 14, 2017"

I am as skeptical of this survey as I would be of a survey by any other special interest voice.

 

I'm having trouble believing this study.

5% of Canadians own Bitcoin, let's exclude children and we're at ~1.5 million.

In the survey, they also say that around 10% of the owners won more than 10 BTC (fig 3) which would result in Canadian having at least 10% of all the coins mined, or if we exclude satoshi's coins more like 15%.

Another puzzling thing is that close to the same number, 9% say they are doing at least a bitcoin transaction a week, which will lead to around 150 000 transactions being Canadian only  .
Today we have around 200k tx a day, so at least 10% of the chain is again Canadian.

Well, it would be possible but we would have to ignore the same percentages coming from Germany 4% or Japan 7%
because those would add 3, respectively 7 million such users, and not forgetting the US with just 15

Those numbers are in high contrast with the amount of tx in the chain and the number of addresses with a balance.
Of course, it might be that most of them are just storing their coins in coinbase or localbitcoins wallets but still....

Close to 100 millions hodlers and buyers worldwide and the price is at 6k....

I definitely expected less and was supported by the fact that 5% of the respondents owned bitcoin, however, Canada is definitely one of the more progressive states when it comes to crypto in their population.

Still a very low adoption number overall, with a lot more room to grow. Those who own or owned bitcoin at this stage are most likely only using it for speculative purposes, which is something that I expect to change more towards actually as a currency in the future.


Precisely. Bitcoin would actually benefit the poorer countries with collapsing economies the most, like Venezuela right now. Adoption in these countries are defintiely going to be much lower than 5%, however.

I would still say that it is a very low number. Calculating percentage growth from such low bases is just for sensational headlines. Every poll would have a margin of error. If the percentage of Canadians who own Bitcoin is estimated to be 4-6%, then the percentage growth will vary from 40% to 100%.

Great. Developed countries are going in first due to many reasons:
-general education of society
-access to information
-access to computers and Internet
-wealthy society is more eager to invest

Just wait until the poor countries catch wind, 20k USD is going to look like a small dot on the chart.

Bitcoin Ownership in Canada is Up 72 Percent Since 2016, Says Central Bank

The newly-published update to the 2017 Bitcoin Omnibus Survey (BTCOS), conducted by the Bank of Canada last Dec. 12 to Dec. 15, indicates that five percent of Canadians own bitcoin, up from 2.9 percent when the central bank conducted a similar poll in Nov. 2016.

https://www.ccn.com/bitcoin-ownership-in-canada-is-up-72-percent-since-2016-says-central-bank/