[2018-07-20] Novogratz: Crypto, Blockchain Mass Adoption Is ‘5 to 6 Years Away’

hatshepsut93

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Quote from: J. Cooper on July 21, 2018, 03:24:27 AM

It's very dangerous to use the term 'never' when it comes to technology and innovation because things can change in a blink of an eye. Take the adoption of mobile phones for instance. Check out this video from 1999 (https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=aag1P4OwA3s). At the time nobody would've thought they would need a mobile phone, let alone use it. Less than two decades later practically everybody has a mobile phone and a big majority has a smartphone. Funny how sentiment can change so rapidly. And the same can apply for bitcoin. We only need a single catalyst.

I don't like using other technologies as an example of how Bitcoin can be mass adopted, such comparisons absolutely ignore all the details. Mobile phones have disrupted regular phones and now are disrupting desktop computers because they can be carried with you all the time, that's their main innovation. Bitcoin's main innovation is financial sovereignty, and I'm arguing that it isn't as valuable in modern society as most people think. I'm kinda libertarian and most people I've talked to believe that government is the only way society can work, that it brings good and people must obey. Similarly, most people are okay with banks, so I don't see how would they suddenly change their opinion and start using Bitcoin.

Lucius

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It will take some time that we see some bigger adoption of cryptocurrency in the world, but blockchain technology is today tested in almost all countries and will soon become an integral part of our lives. BTC on the other hand certainly has a future as a currency, but also as a store of value.,People will recognize his advantages with time, the question is only how quickly everything will develop. Some countries like Japan, Malta or Germany recognized the upcoming technology and made the environment in which this technology can develop.

I think it's important to mention that almost half of the world population have no internet access, so mass adoption will also depend on technology development in less developed countries.

J. Cooper

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Quote from: hatshepsut93 on July 20, 2018, 11:11:11 PM

I think there will never be mass adoption in a sense imagined by many Bitcoin enthusiasts who compare Bitcoin with electricity, the Internet and automobile - Bitcoin's innovation is freedom, and people don't care and don't even understand it. Just look how everyone is cheering for "cashless society" which essentially means that all your finances will be held by banks, that they will sell your data to everyone who'll ask, and that you'll have to accept whatever terms they'll offer because there's no alternative. But for most people all those things are actually mild inconveniences, and the differences in all other parameters like fees and transaction time (LN included) will be too small to make average joe switch to Bitcoin. I'd say, Bitcoin's mass adoption will be 7% of world's population at best.

It's very dangerous to use the term 'never' when it comes to technology and innovation because things can change in a blink of an eye. Take the adoption of mobile phones for instance. Check out this video from 1999 (https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=aag1P4OwA3s). At the time nobody would've thought they would need a mobile phone, let alone use it. Less than two decades later practically everybody has a mobile phone and a big majority has a smartphone. Funny how sentiment can change so rapidly. And the same can apply for bitcoin. We only need a single catalyst.

hatshepsut93

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I think there will never be mass adoption in a sense imagined by many Bitcoin enthusiasts who compare Bitcoin with electricity, the Internet and automobile - Bitcoin's innovation is freedom, and people don't care and don't even understand it. Just look how everyone is cheering for "cashless society" which essentially means that all your finances will be held by banks, that they will sell your data to everyone who'll ask, and that you'll have to accept whatever terms they'll offer because there's no alternative. But for most people all those things are actually mild inconveniences, and the differences in all other parameters like fees and transaction time (LN included) will be too small to make average joe switch to Bitcoin. I'd say, Bitcoin's mass adoption will be 7% of world's population at best.

Kakmakr

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I think his timing is off.... I predict that mass adoption will be much closer, because 3rd world countries in Africa are already used to electronic money and the transition to Bitcoin will be much quicker than most might think. These 3rd world countries sometimes skip a whole technology to get to the next.

Some of these people will for instance skip the whole "Bank" system, because they were excluded and they will start using Bitcoin that are open to everyone. Tongue

buwaytress

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That's pretty much my own estimation too. I know it's tempting to say mass adoption is here, but when most people who "own" Bitcoin don't actually have a wallet they control on their own, nor has even made a Bitcoin spend or received a Bitcoin payment for purposes other than buying and selling, I don't think we can call any of them actual mass users. Bitcoin traders and speculators are aplenty, but that doesn't equate to the everyday use that would require Bitcoin to be "mass adopted".

So that's good news for us, in a sense. I came in in 2016, thinking it was late, I only started seriously accumulating and using in 2017, but am still "glad" that Bitcoin won't quite take off just yet.

moriskarlov

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Quote

For the OP, you posted wrong link to this news., and it is not good to copy/paste whole article - in that way there is no sense to users visit original source and show some support to news site.

Thank you for your comment, you are right, users should visit original source to get more information on the subject. I would love to watch Mike Novogratz interview with Bloomberg. He was one of the few who said about weakness in bullish cryptocurrency/BTC trend at the end of 2017, thus delayed his plans of creating new cryptocurrency fund.

https://cointelegraph.com/news/hedge-fund-magnate-mike-novogratz-delays-new-cryptocurrency-fund-cautions-on-bitcoin

Lucius

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I follow Mike Novogratz for some time and I can say that he is very persistent in his ideas and predictions. Mass adoption 5-6 years from now is quite realistic assessment, for me personally it is even more realistic that big things will start to happen for some ten years from now.

He is absolutely right regarding major obstacles, and biggest problem for investors is they at this time not feel comfortable and secure to invest in cryptocurrency, as Mike say they need some trusted financial institutions who will give them sign that is safe to enter to this market.

I recently watched video where Mike Novogratz talks cryptocurrencies and regulation at the Bloomberg Invest Summit in New York :

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=oWhzlaymNIk

For the OP, you posted wrong link to this news., and it is not good to copy/paste whole article - in that way there is no sense to users visit original source and show some support to news site.

moriskarlov

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Former Wall Street executive Mike Novogratz has recently predicted that mass adoption of crypto and blockchain is “still five to six years away,” Blokt blockchain and tech news outlet reports July 19.

Speaking at the Beyond Blocks conference in South Korea, Novogratz, CEO and founder of crypto investment firm Galaxy Digital, still expressed confidence that many institutions will come into the industry “in the next two to three years,” claiming that “without that, we will be running in circles.”

However, the mass adoption of crypto and blockchain technology will come not earlier than in a half a decade, Novogratz added

“You won’t see mass adoption until the user experience does not feel like something new and that is still five to six years away.”

Novogratz explained that one of the major obstacles on the way to widespread adoption is the increasing “cost of technical talent” as well as the doubts of conventional investors, which are aggravated by “no clear precedent for the financial industry”:

“Think about how institutional investors operate. It’s hard to tell your boss ‘I have money in places you have never heard of.’ You need a trusted, name custodian — a Japanese bank or HSBC or ICE or Goldman Sachs — to allow institutional investors to feel comfortable.”

See more - https://cointelegraph.com/news/wall-street-exec-mike-novogratz-crypto-blockchain-mass-adoption-is-5-to-6-years-away

Topic: [2018-07-20] Novogratz: Crypto, Blockchain Mass Adoption Is ‘5 to 6 Years Away’ (Read 135 times)