Bitcoin dropped to $5,858 yesterday at 02:00 UTC, just $103 shy of this year's bottom, according to Bitfinex data.
we are still in the $6400 and we can easily fall below $6000... which means that we are still facing great odds of the price dropping to very low levels and as each time the price drops there are people who enter panic easily, we can expect the worst.
What we are seeing with the altcoins is a big sign that buying altcoins can be a lot more dangerous than anyone can imagine. even the ETH is having an unimaginable price drop.
Glaring out on the daily chart, the relative strength index (RSI), used to judge the momentum of a trend, has formed a bullish divergence (Aug. 8–14), whereby prices moved lower, but the RSI moved higher creating a 'divergence' from the current bearish setup.
This is this first positive move from the daily RSI since June 23, when the last divergence foretold of the July pullback from the bear trend, which saw bitcoin climb 40 percent.
Further, the MACD (moving average convergence divergence), also used to judge and interpret a trend, is printing bullish signs with the histogram (purple bars) ticking up in favor of the bulls.
The %K and %D lines (blue and orange) representing health and position of a stock are also itching to cross – a bullish signal that only strengthens when viewed from higher timeframes.
Monthly chart
A monthly low slightly higher than the yearly low of $5,755 reveals the bears are becoming exhausted in their attempt to drive down prices with declining volume apparent since the middle of May.
It is also worth noting that the monthly RSI is at its lowest since October 1, 2015 – a level that may have potential to trigger a buying frenzy, reversing the bearish trend seen since Jan 1.
A drop below recent monthly lows would expose bitcoin to the yearly low of $5,755 as it fails to cement a higher high.
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A bullish divergence can be seen on the daily RSI – a sign of a potential reversal in the current bear market.
The daily MACD shows promising signs with the histogram ticking up in favor of the bulls and threatening a bullish cross from the %K and %D lines.
Declining bear volume on the monthly chart since the middle of May – keep an eye on the monthly close to see if bears fail to match or top the previous month (July volume), signaling exhaustion.
Monthly RSI is at its lowest levels in two years.
A drop below recent monthly lows would invalidate the bullish perspective.
In the last 3 months I have been hearing this word a lot: "we are almost reaching the bottom and then we will have the low reversion" and all I see are increases of $400 and then the price falls again and I hear the same thing: " we will have the low trend reversal. " Honestly, I do not believe in these analyzes.