(and I know you don't like on chain but hey, even Segwit is faring better than expected, no?)
SegWit is performing poorly with below 40% support. The main reasons transaction fees have gone down is transaction batching and more accurate fee calculation on the client side, and way less transaction activity.It wouldn't even surprise me if next year SegWit support is still below 50% because the big block camp will continue to not have any of their sites and services upgrade due to Bcash losing its main 'selling feature' being low fees.
Doesn't matter much. If people continue to use services/merchants without segwit, blocks will be smaller, that will drive lightning use. If people switch from services/merchants who don't use segwit, then we have some onchain capacity too. I expect the latter, as people will more likely act to do what's good for them.
And remember that everyone can just use backwards compatible segwit addresses whether other people use segwit or not. This costs the business extra transaction fees, not the customer. In Bitcoin, the sender pay the transaction fees, so the receiving address makes no difference.
