Topic: [2018-11-26] Venture Capitalist: Be Patient With Crypto, Amazon Took 8 Years to (Read 250 times)

We have the social media now so I don't think that the same long bear period that happened on those big companies like Amazon will happen in crypto. We just need a proof that it's working in a day to day basis and huge companies to accept bitcoin and then in just less than a year it will reach new peaks.

Probably it will be lesser than 2 years and I am suspecting that it will going to happen on 6 months. If bitcoin will gone higher and higher this time as people or investors around the world will going to invest together then there will be no more time for the whales to trade and control the market especially if bitcoin market price goes high.

Problem with comparison it what you compare..
Last time it took bitcoin to recover 3 years but we could look at it also like it took it 3 years to recover 800$.
We could go all pessimistic and say that it will take it around 60 years to recover 16 000 $ (auchhh, the number is quite a surprise even for me).

There are so many variables when we speak strictly about bitcoin it turns into a real mess when we try to compare it with something that, as #LeGaulois said, it's a different beast altogether.


Should we throw in Sears, Kodak or Chrysler in this comparison?  Not going to like the result 

And about the big picture of 30 years, according to our country Wikipedia on life expectancy, it's pretty clear that I shouldn't give a damn about what the price of BTC will be in 2048.
And it's not just me, I'm pretty sure a lot of guys around here don't give a damn either.

Be Patient With Crypto - best advise for present situation. Digital economy is a future - I still think so. If you have problems with psychology, just send your cryptoactives to cold wallet and forget it for 1-2 years.

8 months or 16 months is not an essential fact at all, recovery of crypto market will most likely last a lot less than 8 years. But after every new pump there will be massive correction which will cut price at least 50%+ and even more. So one more thing that BTC and Amazon have no in common is stability, imagine what would happen if Amazon is lost 80% of value in one year...

I would say : Be patient and cautious with crypto, it is most volatile and risky investment - you can get rich one day/you can lose everything in the blink of an eye.

I don't know what this guy is thinking/smoking - but hey we all know bitcoin and Amazon are not related in any way but they're all IT-based technologies. What this article is trying to say is Amazon and bitcoin have one thing in common which is investors. Investors buy and sell Amazon stock and so does the bitcoin. Sometimes the market is bullish and sometimes is bearish, the investors are the ones that control the market. We're not saying the bitcoin and Amazon share anything but the market behavior made by the investors.

* The crypto market crash will never take 8 years to recover, it may take 8 months to recover. Cryptos are unlike Amazon, they recover fast!

It was the same with all big companies like Apple and Microsoft. Their timeline is so big on the charts that 1 year long dips look like small dots there and are almost invisible, especially when compared to the pumps that came after. Stocks are bigger than this. A year means nothing, even 2 years don't mean much in the big picture of 20 or 30 years. Never focus on 1d charts if you're not an active trader.

It's not really senseless. Back in the days it didn't matter what the stock was and its underlying revenue streams (i.e. the asset itself was irrelevant), the upwards potential during the dot com boom was what investors bought into, and the same pretty much applies to crypto. In both cases the usability of the product is what makes it become valuable, and Amazon's roadmap lead to the success it currently enjoys.

Bitcoin is quite similar, because it has a product to offer, and the more scalable it becomes, the more use it will be able to welcome. The more use it enjoys, the more valuable it becomes, it's basic economics.

The only thing is that we don't know how long it will take to reach previous all time high again. It's no longer an easy target because of where we are today. Going from $150 to $1150 is peanuts in comparison to go from $3000 to $20,000. The amount of money needed to sustain +$10,000 levels is insane.

Luckily next bitcoin halving is not too far off so within 2 years we should see the start of a bull run. It just means we have a year to accumulate as many cheap coins as possible before the next big pump. If Amazon decides to accept bitcoin then it be even sooner

I agree that it is not completely correctly to compare Amazon with BTC and look for comparisons of ups and downs between two pretty different worlds. Amazon is online shopping company, probably largest in the world - and even they have ups and downs it is actually nothing compared to that what BTC must overcome to become a stable and successful.

First time in history we have decentralized financial system which is based on ordinary people work (although some will not agree with that) in terms of maintaining the entire network excluding central state systems of monitoring and control. Amazon did not have to fight against banks, politicians, and some businessmens who want things to stay as before.

In fact it is very ungrateful to predict how much will it take to BTC become a serious world player. It is sure that this will not be the case while less than 1% of the total population knows/use BTC.

Exactly. For the last years (and probably for quite some more years to come) the crypto market had much wider fluctuations than the stock markets would ever dream of... in both directions.
The result is that Bitcoin can fall to dust in very short time and also it can recover pretty quick.

Back to OP. In 8 years Bitcoin market has the capability to pass maybe more than 2 full cycles, making the discussed time span irrelevant.

Everytime i do see these kind of comparison of BTC towards Big companies i dont really care at all and as said its not really relevant for them to be connected.
Bitcoin had proven out that it can possibly recover on a short span of time that a regular stocks cant.

Senseless, Amazon is a marketplace and Cryptos are currencies. It's like comparing apple and laundry prices. There is nothing to be compared with both. I don't need the advice from a VC to understand it needs patience. If it took Amazon 8 years, it will take a lot more time for Bitcoin et al.

Took about two, three years for Bitcoin to recover from its 2014 mauling... So it'd be foolish to dismiss the possibility that it would need just as long, if not much longer, to pick itself up from this dusting, which itself could be far from over.

We've all seen the comparisons, all been shown the cycles. There's also the possibility it could go to a very slow burn growth pattern over the next decade. About as likely to go to the dogs too.

Patience needed to see all these possibilities out. Meanwhile, let's just keep using Bitcoin, eh?

Venture Capitalist: Be Patient With Crypto, Amazon Took 8 Years to Recover From 1999



Renowned venture capitalist Fred Wilson has said that crypto could go down even more in the short-term. But, investors that remain in the market will likely be rewarded, as was the case in the Dot Com era.

In a blog post on Nov. 25, Wilson said:

    “So while crypto asset prices are down 80-95% in USD terms over the last year, they could and probably will go lower. Amazon was down 80% a year into the post-bubble bear market and it got cut in half again before it made a bottom almost two years after it peaked. What we have yet to see in crypto land is when they kick you when you are down. And that is certainly coming.”

Case of Amazon
Amazon, now the second largest technology conglomerate in the world behind Apple with a stock price of $1,500, was worth $6 less than 17 years ago. Investors that bought Amazon stocks in 2001 are up 250-fold. If you had invested $1,000 into Amazon at the time, that investment is now worth $250,000.

But, prior to 2001, in 1999, the price of Amazon stock achieved a new all-time high at $90 as the Dot Com bubble peaked. From then on, the stock price of Amazon collapsed, declining to $6 in 2001. It took Amazon more than eight years to recover to $90 in 2007.

Wilson noted:

    “Amazon peaked in the Internet bubble in late 1999 at around $90/share. Almost two years later, at the trough, you could briefly buy Amazon at $6/share. And then it took until late 2007 for Amazon to trade above the highs it reached in 1999.”





Like Amazon, the cryptocurrency sector has suffered several large corrections in the past and each one of the corrections averaged a drop of 85 percent. As an asset class at its infancy, cryptocurrencies will continue to experience bubble-burst-build-rally cycles in the years to come.

Wilson emphasized that similar to the case of technology stocks in the early 2000s, investors that remain in the cryptocurrency sector through long-lasting downtrends and bear markets will be rewarded in the long-term.

    “I think some crypto asset (and possibly a number of crypto assets) will have a price chart like Amazon’s current one in 18 years. But we will have to do what Amazon did, hunker down and build value and survive, for quite a while to get there. And I think things will get worse before they get better,” said Wilson, adding that no paydays were awarded to investors in the technology space until 2010.”

Wilson added:

    “But those who stayed were rewarded, although it took a long time for that to happen. We didn’t see meaningful paydays in the Internet sector until the 2007-2008 period and the big paydays didn’t start coming until 2010 and beyond.”

Promising Future
In 2017, as individual investors fueled a strong rally for major cryptocurrencies, the global crypto market secured a valuation of over $800 billion. Since then, the cryptocurrency exchange market has seen a drastic change in its infrastructure with the entrance of Fidelity and conglomerate-backed exchanges.

Bitcoin, Ethereum, and other major blockchain networks saw the implementation of fundamental first layer improvements pertaining to security, privacy, and scalability.

In many areas including regulation, infrastructure, and liquidity, the cryptocurrency sector is in a much stronger position than it was in late 2017.

The latest cryptocurrency market crash was triggered by the movement of the market; when an asset class experiences a four-fold increase in value within a two-month period, it tends to correct. But, as Wilson said, it is important to objectively evaluate the state of the market and the sector with tangible evidence.


Reference: https://cryptoslate.com/venture-capitalist-be-patient-with-crypto-amazon-took-8-years-to-recover-from-1999/