[2019-04-06]The Next 4-Year Cycle in Bitcoin is Underway

pixie85

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Quote from: joniboini on April 09, 2019, 01:19:31 AM

I was a believer of this 4-year cycle thing, but I no longer think it as a foolproof theory anymore. Got rekt hard last year so I'll stick with money management where I save some profits and calculate how much the cost and risk to hold for years.

In 2011 the price was at 2 dollars and in 2012 there was a bull run to 16 dollars. In 2013 16 to 200 dollars in Spring and then there was another one to 1000 dollars in Winter followed by 1 year of bear market 1 year of returning to the mean and another 2 years of bull market 2016 and 2017. How did that not work and get you rekt if you followed the theory?

If the theory works there was 2018 full bear followed by a capitulation in 2019 and there should be a breakout this year followed by a return to the mean in 2020 that should get us close to 20000 dollars next year.

BitHodler

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Quote from: joniboini on April 09, 2019, 01:19:31 AM

Those bubbles seem to keep reappearing after the halving finished. So it seems there are some "cycle" too where halving is the center of that cycle.

The block halving is one of the most fundamental happenings within Bitcoin because its global rate of inflation will then drop well under that of gold, which makes Bitcoin even more attractive to investors.

The only thing people seem to disregard is the fact that we're at a crucial point in Bitcoin's history where more liquidity also translates into less crazy bull runs. It's no longer the few billion market coin that goes 50-100x at once.

In order for Bitcoin to reach a $1 trillion market cap we "only" need to reach $56k per coin with its current total number of circulating coins, which isn't all that unrealistic if you think about it.

Gold's current market cap is $8 trillion, so we're coming closer and closer. By the time Bitcoin breaks that $1 trillion mark we might be in for a massive capital shift from gold to Bitcoin because it's way better and scarcer.

joniboini

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I was a believer of this 4-year cycle thing, but I no longer think it as a foolproof theory anymore. Got rekt hard last year so I'll stick with money management where I save some profits and calculate how much the cost and risk to hold for years.

Quote from: gentlemand on April 08, 2019, 01:56:27 PM

I'd be more into attributing it to halvings above all, and both halvings had a bubble after they took place. As it stands this cycle so far is matching the previous one. Obviously that could diverge at any moment.

Those bubbles seem to keep reappearing after the halving finished. So it seems there are some "cycle" too where halving is the center of that cycle.

figmentofmyass

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Quote from: gentlemand on April 08, 2019, 01:56:27 PM

Quote from: figmentofmyass on April 08, 2019, 01:45:50 PM

this, although i consider the april and november 2013 bubbles as part of the same cycle.

the idea that a 4-year cycle cold be observed once in bitcoin's history and then applied predictively going forward is really dubious. if there are any statisticians in the house, they'd laugh the idea out of the room.

every bull/bear cycle is different. the fact that everyone seems to think this one will play out exactly like 2014-15 makes me cautious. most people are usually wrong about the market.

I would consider April 2013 a Gox induced blip. I find it weird that it's still given credence as a standalone event. 2011? It was so tiny and only through Gox that I struggle to match it to what came after.

2011 wasn't tiny. in percentage/log terms, 2011 was the biggest bubble by far. and IMO nothing was "gox-induced" in the sense that it wouldn't have happened otherwise. it that were true, 2011 and april 2013 would have been instantly retraced. instead, we formed bullish accumulation cycles. people tend to overestimate gox's influence over the market. btc-e, bitstamp, btcc, (and later bitfinex) were all very significant parts of the spot market in the early days. even if the willy bot was running wild it doesn't matter---real people were paying real prices, and price always recovered after corrections.

Quote from: gentlemand on April 08, 2019, 01:56:27 PM

I'd be more into attributing it to halvings above all, and both halvings had a bubble after they took place. As it stands this cycle so far is matching the previous one. Obviously that could diverge at any moment.

i don't attribute anything directly to halvings, especially when you look at the timing (2012 and 2016). supply vs demand is an ever-changing equation and it's tough to separate surging demand from dwindling supply when we're talking about bubbles.

a year ago, i was expecting (at least a good % of the time) a 2014 redux to occur. now that everyone else is seeing the same thing, i just figure it probably won't play out exactly the same. markets tend to surprise us when everyone sees the same thing. there's probably a couple more surprises coming.

gentlemand

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Quote from: figmentofmyass on April 08, 2019, 01:45:50 PM

this, although i consider the april and november 2013 bubbles as part of the same cycle.

the idea that a 4-year cycle cold be observed once in bitcoin's history and then applied predictively going forward is really dubious. if there are any statisticians in the house, they'd laugh the idea out of the room.

every bull/bear cycle is different. the fact that everyone seems to think this one will play out exactly like 2014-15 makes me cautious. most people are usually wrong about the market.

I would consider April 2013 a Gox induced blip. I find it weird that it's still given credence as a standalone event. 2011? It was so tiny and only through Gox that I struggle to match it to what came after.

I'd be more into attributing it to halvings above all, and both halvings had a bubble after they took place. As it stands this cycle so far is matching the previous one. Obviously that could diverge at any moment.

figmentofmyass

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Quote from: odolvlobo on April 08, 2019, 02:56:05 AM

I'm not convinced. There has been only one 4-year cycle. The others were shorter.

Peak-to-peak cycles:

--------------Period--------------	---Length---	--------Changes--------
2011-06-07 to 2013-04-09	2 years	Fell 90%, then rose 85x
2013-04-09 to 2013-12-03	8 months	Fell 66%, then rose 17x
2013-12-03 to 2017-12-18	4 years	Fell 82%, then rose 86x

this, although i consider the april and november 2013 bubbles as part of the same cycle.

the idea that a 4-year cycle cold be observed once in bitcoin's history and then applied predictively going forward is really dubious. if there are any statisticians in the house, they'd laugh the idea out of the room.

every bull/bear cycle is different. the fact that everyone seems to think this one will play out exactly like 2014-15 makes me cautious. most people are usually wrong about the market.

odolvlobo

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I'm not convinced. There has been only one 4-year cycle. The others were shorter.

Peak-to-peak cycles:

Period	Length	Changes
2011-06-07 to 2013-04-09	2 years	Fell 90%, then rose 85x
2013-04-09 to 2013-12-03	8 months	Fell 66%, then rose 17x
2013-12-03 to 2017-12-18	4 years	Fell 82%, then rose 86x

gentlemand

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Quote from: hatshepsut93 on April 07, 2019, 01:38:10 PM

Didn't the blockchain bubble burst already? I saw an article recently showing that ICO's are barely getting any money now, while a year ago they used to get billions. Also, startups and companies stopped saying "blockchain" and try to rebrand it as "distributed ledger". Although, altcoins are still roughly where they were relative to Bitcoin, so maybe the blockchain hype is not really dead yet.

A bubble burst. I don't believe it was THE bubble. I dunno or care what the future of ICOs is, but in the long run it'll be just as much of a blip as the $1200 bubble seems to some now, let alone in 3-5 years.

As it stands there's still no straightforward frictionless route for investment money to enter and leave. Downloading some unfamiliar app and waiting for some asshole to approve your selfie don't cut it. It needs to be on regular platforms and accessible by brokers through their normal channels.

You can't have the peak of bubbliness without Wall St and mom and pop. The dotcom bubble was over $10 trillion inflation adjusted.

Of course ideally there wouldn't be a bubble like that, it's going to screw an awful lot of people, but I believe it's on its way eventually.

hatshepsut93

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Quote from: gentlemand on April 07, 2019, 01:16:36 PM

My guess is that we're going to follow the dotcom path. There will be an absolute beast of a bubble followed by the pop from hell and then after several years of desolation people will actually finally figure out what 'blockchain' is good for and it becomes part of the furniture.

I don't know if the next bubble will be that beast, but we definitely have not had it yet.

Didn't the blockchain bubble burst already? I saw an article recently showing that ICO's are barely getting any money now, while a year ago they used to get billions. Also, startups and companies stopped saying "blockchain" and try to rebrand it as "distributed ledger". Although, altcoins are still roughly where they were relative to Bitcoin, so maybe the blockchain hype is not really dead yet.

gentlemand

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Quote from: hatshepsut93 on April 07, 2019, 12:59:59 PM

I'm getting a feeling that sooner or later the cycle will get broken, because more and more people become aware of it, and markets can often have a tendency of going the opposite of what most people expect. And this is kinda scary, because the cyclic model tells us that Bitcoin will keep growing for many more years, but if it will break, we'll probably see a really painful and long bear market. If you look at the bigger picture, Bitcoin was always in bull market since it was created, but this can't last forever.

I'm dead interested to see if this holds. So far it has to an extent I did not expect.

One factor that isn't mentioned all that often is that halvings will slowly lose their potency. When you go from 1.56 to 0.78 that's not exactly an earth shaking change even if the value is much higher.

My guess is that we're going to follow the dotcom path. There will be an absolute beast of a bubble followed by the pop from hell and then after several years of desolation people will actually finally figure out what 'blockchain' is good for and it becomes part of the furniture.

I don't know if the next bubble will be that beast, but we definitely have not had it yet.

hatshepsut93

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I'm getting a feeling that sooner or later the cycle will get broken, because more and more people become aware of it, and markets can often have a tendency of going the opposite of what most people expect. And this is kinda scary, because the cyclic model tells us that Bitcoin will keep growing for many more years, but if it will break, we'll probably see a really painful and long bear market. If you look at the bigger picture, Bitcoin was always in bull market since it was created, but this can't last forever.

Vladdirescu87

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A trader on Bitcoin Live, Bob Loukas, released a new video on his YouTube channel on Tuesday April 2, explaining to his followers why he thinks a new 4-year trend for BTC, the leading cryptocurrency by market cap (MC), has started.

Bob had released a video few months (mid-January) ago showing that we are approaching the end of the bearish trend in crypto.

Read the details in the article of Coinidol dot com, the world blockchain news outlet: https://coinidol.com/next-cycle-bitcoin/

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