this, although i consider the april and november 2013 bubbles as part of the same cycle.
the idea that a 4-year cycle cold be observed once in bitcoin's history and then applied predictively going forward is really dubious. if there are any statisticians in the house, they'd laugh the idea out of the room.
every bull/bear cycle is different. the fact that everyone seems to think this one will play out exactly like 2014-15 makes me cautious. most people are usually wrong about the market.
I would consider April 2013 a Gox induced blip. I find it weird that it's still given credence as a standalone event. 2011? It was so tiny and only through Gox that I struggle to match it to what came after.
2011 wasn't tiny. in percentage/log terms, 2011 was the biggest bubble by far. and IMO nothing was "gox-induced" in the sense that it wouldn't have happened otherwise. it that were true, 2011 and april 2013 would have been instantly retraced. instead, we formed bullish accumulation cycles. people tend to overestimate gox's influence over the market. btc-e, bitstamp, btcc, (and later bitfinex) were all very significant parts of the spot market in the early days. even if the willy bot was running wild it doesn't matter---real people were paying real prices, and price always recovered after corrections.
I'd be more into attributing it to halvings above all, and both halvings had a bubble after they took place. As it stands this cycle so far is matching the previous one. Obviously that could diverge at any moment.
i don't attribute anything directly to halvings, especially when you look at the timing (2012 and 2016). supply vs demand is an ever-changing equation and it's tough to separate surging demand from dwindling supply when we're talking about bubbles.
a year ago, i was expecting (at least a good % of the time) a 2014 redux to occur. now that everyone else is seeing the same thing, i just figure it probably won't play out
exactly the same. markets tend to surprise us when everyone sees the same thing. there's probably a couple more surprises coming.