whatever leverage the US can gain over Bitfinex to shut down Tether, it's not going to be quite so easy.
What are your thoughts on the prospects of that? The apparent focus on stablecoins has everyone thinking about Libra but I'm increasingly wondering about US and Chinese government interest in Tether as its market cap continues to grow
I'm leaning towards this interpretation... (so you might be wasting your time listening to me guessing, in other words)
Cryptocurrencies are an intelligence agencies power-grab. Whether they were satoshi or not isn't relevant, they will have been watching/participating in the early cypherpunk movement in the 90's, were almost certainly mining BTC early on and very likely still behind many mining operations and, assuming this is a power grab, they're actually working towards making cryptocurrencies strong, not weakened with backdoors. The reasoning is pretty simple: it's been long speculated that cryptography and computer science could be used to develop currencies like Bitcoin, and the intelligence agencies are world experts in both, cryptography especially. If it can be done, trying to hold back the tide is a waste of time, better to either win the race, or failing that, ride the waves.
The financial industry (and especially the IMF & central banks) are probably highly suspicious of the intelligence agencies right now, assuming I am correct. But what could they do? It all comes down to who is best placed with the big 3 military powers, intelligence or the banks (UK/France etc don't count, or are essentially part of the US military). The intelligence people could conceivably have the upper hand there, either through loyalty or blackmail material. And if I was in the military command, I think I'd choose the scientists and psychologists over the a bunch of crafty bean-counters.
So how could such a powerplay affect stablecoins? Intelligence agencies infiltrate everywhere, that's their job. Playing the right games to keep stablecoins running should be pretty easy, simply tell high-ups at banks and financial regulators that you're setting up an operation to catch some big fish etc etc, just keep coming up with new bullshit until it stops working, then come up with a completely new angle
How do you think the crypto exchanges have stayed open so long, when it's functionally equivalent to the banks watching their own suicide in slow-motion? The banks like a bit of fair and honest competition, right?
and as they establish their CNH stablecoin.
they're doing
what?that would be huge. Without the DPRC giving party approval, that sort thing must be either super difficult or impossible, I am amazed to hear that. Although if Hong Kong banks have kicked Bitfinex out, you've gotta ask yourself exactly who's backing the Cayman Islands. Logically, it's the US, so maybe it is possible that Bitfinex are circumventing Chinese approval, but I somehow doubt it. I think the Chinese gov certainly will need to publicly disapprove of CNY stablecoins, as their public stance otherwise is explicit heavy control of the yuan in every way possible, CNY stablecoins fly in the face of that. But in private, this might (but not in the short term, volumes need to be colossal) be at least one useful scapegoat in the event that currency markets suffer a shock.