Topic: [2019 - 11- 25] The 4 Possible Bitcoin Scenarios In The Long Run (Read 268 times)

Ask anyone who makes or supplements their income with under the table work (or anyone who doesn't declare their entire income) what are their thoughts on cashlessness. They are a non-insignificant group of voters.


People or their families who were oppressed by far-right or far-left regimes whose work was easier thanks to public or state-owned records will also often be skeptical of going full cashless. Journalists (especially investigative ones) and people involved in politics should too be wary.

The first three scenarios are really just the one same "moon" scenario described in different words. It would be more interesting if they explored more possibilities, like Bitcoin breaking its crazy cycles and switching to slow but predictable growth, or even Bitcoin relatively stabilizing at some point not far from where we are. IMO, both moon and doom aren't as likely as they were before - today's uncertainty is not the uncertainty of the early days.

you get more indifferent after experiencing a dozen of these events. The time when $250 capitulated at $70, phew, I was thinking "some super bad news could really squash the whole thing", but fortunately it turned around both very assertively and fast.

Nowadays, any movement is pretty irrelevant to me. I spend BTC when I need stuff, not when economics (or economists) suggests I should (in your face, Gresham!) The more I learn about how Bitcoin's fundamentals hold it together (and future plans to strengthen it), the less concerned I am about a black swan situation wiping it out. Which is obviously always possible, but it'll be far easier to put the whole thing down to experience in that event. I'll be proud and lucky to have been a part of a great part of history if so, I mean think on that, this is a genuinely historic phenomenon that'll actually appear in cultural dissemination years from now, whether it succeeds long term or not. And it's been said from very early on, if Bitcoin fails, cryptocurrency will still succeed, you can definitely "bank" on that

What is your take on the current bearish reversal? Have any bearish reversals ever made you uncomfortable or you don't care because you rely on the long term potential for Bitcoin to hit $100,000 and possibly higher?

This scenario is obviously ideal, but I don't think that this is likely given the time constraints. Especially with central banks, they aren't likely to adopt something that is decentralised as their reserve currencies, even though it is a logical thing to do to protect against external financial contagion.

I do think, however, that adoption levels will continue to increase in spite of what regulators seem to have against BTC.

A grassroot movement like this won't just be forgotten or abandoned, because of the sheer amount of people that is backing it, and not just one institution holding it together.

It's largely fear. It sucks for most people to look at their portfolio and see the virtual loss expose their poor timing of entering the market.

I see it happen with people on this forum referring to themselves as long term holder too; during price increases everyone can chill and enjoy the price, but when the market moves against them, they suddenly aren't so sure about their investment or Bitcoin anymore. These are usually the weak hands we are talking about when it comes to people getting shaken out of the market.

Every long term bull loves to buy at much lower levels. These are precious opportunities. Instead of utilizing these opportunities people cry themselves to sleep.

go to independent businesses in Switzerland or Austria. No cards. Cash. Only.

Sure, but that's not the popular perception. People don't associate rising cost of living with cash vs. plastic/mobile. They may bitch about the price of rent and food increasing but they certainly aren't complaining about going cashless. They want to go cashless. Merchants and black marketers love cash but mainstream consumers have us all by the balls in that regard.

I don't foresee anyone putting up much of a fight against the incoming cash restrictions we're seeing around the world.

then count me in!

peak to peak ($1000 in 2014 to $20,000 in 2017) was a x20 increase last time, 20x $20,000 is a new ATH of $400,000. Which would last about 5 minutes before the new world record is set for biggest ever market correction

anything could happen though, including a great big nothingburger

It's not about the prediction being realistic or unrealistic, but about the people making these predictions to get the media exposure they are after. News portals have a habit of donating exposure to tards like McAfee. No one in his right mind believes that Bitcoin will reach $250000 in 2020.

A bit pointless making price predictions but the concept of an enormous move seemed no more or less absurd than the last one or the one before that yet they happened. And price action was indifferent/dead leading up to and around the previous halvings too.

I don't really see why anyone's paying much attention to current prices unless they're leveraged to the hilt. It's all a bit of a nothing.

It's good to be optimistic, but we have to look at the possibility that in future the price is not too high as most people imagine, let's look at the current scenario as a great example:



we are 169 days from halving and the price is more likely to end the year under $ 6000. this can be a presage that next year even after halving the price remains below 10,000 and it is unbelievable that there are people who say the price will reache $250,000 on 2020, which is absurd.

As long as there are hardcore hoarders out there, that believe that the Fiat system is on a path of self destruction, then Bitcoin would have a future. We know most Fiat currencies does not last longer than a 100 years, so these people are looking for alternative payment options, when these Fiat currencies fail.

A lot of these currencies has already failed, like the Zimbabwean Dollar and the Argentine Peso (ARS), so they are failing one by one and people are turning to Crypto currencies like Bitcoin to protect their wealth. 

such a basic equation: the more your money is controlled by someone who's not you, the less it's yours. If money you don't control is anything, worthless is it it's main value is held by whoever's giving you permission to use it (the most extreme case being "you have my permission to give all your money to me" whose money is that? why ever call it yours?)

the dystopian future world can stop me paying you or you paying me, but all that's doing is guaranteeing the inmates will start their own money system (spoiler alert: yep, we're more or less free-range cattle in tax cults)

Is it not two sides of the same coin? Your money is becoming increasingly controlled and at the same time it's becoming increasingly worthless. If you add the two together it makes for an ugly future.

I've heard a few people voice the dystopian possibilities and I don't think they had much or any awareness of crypto.

Of course, but we're talking about two different things now. I was speaking to the bit about cash controls and moving towards cashlessness. People don't seem too worried about that.

Inflation and low interest rates are a whole other can of worms.

I can't recall anyone who hasn't moaned about the truly pitiful savings options out there or the ever rising costs of living. Day to day convenience has upped but the fundamentals of what they're earning and saving in are shakier than they used to be.

People seem pretty comfortable with their online banking apps, Zelle, Venmo, Cash App... even my mother, who's in her 60s. Everyone is willingly going cashless, particularly young people. I'm not sure they're going to question anything until fiat currencies start imploding.

I believe that the success of the revolutionary idea (Blockchain technology) "which proved by Bitcoin," will attract everyone to it, from governments to central banks and others, but everyone will try to take advantage of it to achieve his interests.
The cash will soon turn into digital money but it will be centralized and Blockchain may work over it.
If Bitcoin failed or succeeded, it has already proved that it can make a difference.

Maybe, but that will eventually change when we have another government or global banking fuckup. If banks are doing fairly well, governments in most financially strong countries too, people have no need for safe havens.

We will have to see whether the 'looming' recession really strikes one day, but that might be such a catalyst for people to finally start appreciating what Bitcoin brings to the table. People need to be uncomfortable first to explore new alternatives.

It's technically not even about Bitcoin's security since most people don't care about that. In fact, it's mainly Bitcoin's network effect that makes it so desirable. If you look at what coins are being listed the first on exchanges, it's always Bitcoin. If you ask people in crypto if they accept Bitcoin, even when they are hardcore altcoiners, they'll do it.

By always being the first with everything, you position yourself stronger in the market year after year. Look at the volume of exchanges that are reputable, it's Bitcoin as single coin that generates most of the volume. XRP is truly a joke with just $20-$40 million in overall volume when you look at its market cap. Ethereum is doing better on that front but it still is no match.

With lightning faster and cheaper transactions can be tapped into already. I'm using it on a daily basis and thus far haven't had a single transaction fail. The only inconvenience I experienced thus far was that it took about 30 seconds for a ~$200 transfer to settle (likely related to routing) but it settled. The fee was a whopping 26 satoshis, which on lightning is a lot actually.

If I for a second worried about an altcoin that potentially could overtake Bitcoin in every aspect, I would be holding quite a chunk of it. I don't see it happen.

I think the opposite myself. When I recall what banking was like only ten years ago it was a lot more logical and a lot less offensive and Orwellian than it is now.

You actually got interest on your savings. Cash was king. There was much less of this AML reporting and zero talk of restricting cash transactions above certain amounts. It's only going one way.

Cashlessness and the spectre of a governmentcoin will be a wake up call to enough people to make them question what's going on. BTC will be waiting for them.

I think if Bitcoin could be substituted by any of those coins, it would have happened already. There are tons of faster coins with cheaper transaction fees, and yet most people prefer to use Bitcoin, and the main reason for that is that its blockchain is much more secure than that of any other crypto coin.

There are many people who are asking themselves: Is Bitcoin really needed on their lives at least in the aspect of finance, money and banking? We have to accept that the impetus of the creation and existence of Bitcoin years ago have already faded today and many people do not care anymore about how the government and traditional financial institutions can be intruding into their lives for as long as these people get what they want in the process. In other words, we are now slowly losing the vision for Bitcoin and when only a handful of people are really sticking to the core beliefs and philosophy of Bitcoin then we can have a big problem and right now the symptoms of these problems have already started to surface. Let's just hope that eventually Bitcoin will be as it should be.

Bitcoin Leaves No One Indifferent

That’s obvious, but I think that pointing this out is important.

Some are the Bitcoin’s absolute supporters and its revolution. Bitcoin is a real opportunity for them to restore a fully decentralized and trust-based financial system. Among these supporters are the famous HODLERS who are conscientiously accumulating Bitcoin month after month, whatever their price, because they are convinced that in the future their price will reach new heights.

There are central bankers, economists and politicians, on the other hand, who see Bitcoin as a major risk. Nonetheless, Bitcoin’s mass acceptance may clearly undermine its ability to create infinite money.

Then there are the media that use Bitcoin and cryptocurrencies to create sensational headlines without bothering to understand the ins and outs of this revolutionary technology.

Lastly, in the midst of all this, the general public is not sure what to think about a Bitcoin whose excessive volatility and potential role in money laundering is constantly underlined. Therefore, many people clearly do not know about Bitcoin’s potential and how it might well transform their lives in the future.

The Bitcoin Future Price Makes You Imagine

Whatever your position on Bitcoin, I’m sure you’re intrigued by at least one thing about Bitcoin. I know because almost everyone on Earth is intrigued by this thing.

Everyone asks what the Bitcoin price will be in the future.

Bitcoin’s future price makes you fantasy. Everyone therefore has a small prognosis: from Bitcoin influencers to economists, everybody seems to have their own views on the issue.

A well-known venture capitalist with significant investments in Baidu, Skype and Tesla, Tim Draper has long believed in Bitcoin and that’s why he purchased, for example, 30,000 BTC in June 2014. Consequently, its predictions on Bitcoin’s future price are necessarily influenced.

Tim Draper predicts a $250,000 worth of Bitcoin in 2022!

Read more at DoggBitCoin