Topic: [2019-12-19] Heard of bitcoin's 'halving'? It's set to shake crypto markets ... (Read 531 times)

The thing is, nothing really is a surprise in Bitcoin. No FED defines rates, prints fresh money, announces any action plan,...

All priced in guys

As far as I can see, people in crypto community have become more rational and more down to earth these days. Most of them don't expect that the market will react to the halving immediately. Rather they expect a reaction, a positive one, of course, during the next year after halving, taking into account the charts from the past. And how much Bitcoin can rise in more than a year from now, it's hard to say today. It can be a huge rising, but not necessarily due to halving.

It's definitely a common misconception for sure.

I think it is a reason why a lot of people seem to think that bitcoin is deflationary, when in reality it is simply disinflationary. You could only say that halving reduces the supply of newly minted coins, but not the aggregate amount of coins that is currently in circulation.

I do think that halving will bring about a substantial bull market but nowhere near the size that people seem to anticipate.

If all demand is exhausted (let alone all new demand), then the price would fall from wherever it is because no one is buying.  And that would be a first time for it, sure.  It could happen no doubt.

Does anyone know whether the fiat price will increase or decrease after the halving?  No, of course not.  In the past, there has been decreasing new supply and unchanged or increased demand which will increase the fiat price.  Will that happen in May 2020?  I don't know.  If demand increases or stays the same, then the price will go up.  Otherwise it will go down. 

Use cases for payments (e.g. micro payments using lightning), wealth protection (from collectivists), remittances etc are things that one hopes will keep demand growing.  Whether that will pan out is an open question, but as long as there are a lot of smart people who

My earlier point was that the halving isn't something that will shake crypto markets - everyone knows about it and anticipates it and the impact happens in the months before and the months after.

If we want Bitcoin as money, it should be SoV as well, because being a store of value is an indispensable feature of hard currencies. And we don't want Bitcoin to be a weak currency, right? So, I absolutely agree with @figmentofmyass here. Don't criticize people for using BTC as a store of value or speculative asset. They are doing a good thing for the community overall.

Bitcoin will do much more than 'SoV'. I see it can do all we want. Why artificial limit it for fishy sake or rather hidden agendas ?

Just see how all that play out having big blocks and industrial capacity enabeling

History is ongoing.

why does it bother you so much if people use BTC as a store of value or speculative asset more so than a currency?

history seems to disagree with you anyway. during strong bull markets, BTC price and transaction fees rise in tandem. when demand is high, people don't seem to mind paying high fees for the privilege of owning BTC.

As of my understanding, Bitcoin halving will cut down the generation of new bitcoins. As of now coin reward per block is 12.5 after halving it will be 6.25.
I have gone through the article and couldnt find the mistake. Can someone quote whats the mistake writer has committed in writing the article.

Bullish on fees

Bearish on use for btc

Less use - lower value


Price still pure speculation

Halving is basically the reduction of the block rewards of the bitcoin network for miners so for instance with this incoming halving the reward for a block is going to be reduced from 12.5 to 6.25. This activity has always been followed by some slight increases in the crypto market and i guess that is why most folks are still thinking history is likely to repeat itself. However, i am not too hopeful with this halving that it is going to have a major impact on the crypto market.

anything is possible, but betting against strong trends is usually a bad idea. dropping below the $3100s at this point would be historically unprecedented because it's now a confirmed yearly pivot. it would probably correspond with a never before seen rate of down spiraling hash rate.

until that happens, i'm not betting against the long term trend.

Its FOMO and people immaturity that took bitcoin to its ATH in dec 2017. Investors are now more sensible and are not ready to sacrifice there hard earned money as in 2017. Bitcoin halving is most overrated thing of current time and many think that nothing will happen with this event.

What happened with Litecoin was unique. The exchange rates had went up quite a bit before the actual halving event. However, after the block reward occurred, there was a sharp correction in the prices. During the first half of 2019, the Litecoin prices went up from $30 per coin to around $135 per coin, and it was clear that this spike was unsustainable for long. I can't see a similar spike for Bitcoin, and therefore I assume that what happened with LTC will not repeat with BTC.

If it will be bullish so eventually it will again shake the market, what scenario I am seeing is that, bitcoin price will pump and it will be overprice due to hype, then followed by a big correction which shakes the market eventually.


Hopefully that would happen, if bitcoin rises in smaller events compared to halving, I think we can possibly see bitcoin trading over $10,000 prior to halving. However, we should remain realistic of other possibilities that might not help to improve the market.

This time is different, market is more matured and people are getting clever.

However, you do not think that there is a first time for everything? That it might be the first time that bitcoin might stay on a bear market after a halving because all demand is exhausted?

Shake it?

I doubt it. But the expectations are clearly bullish in this regard.

Over the past few halvings markets have always risen, typically around 1-2 years after the halving marks the peak of the bull market.

This seems to coincide with current market developments as well. We'll get a real shot at retesting the 5 digit psychological barrier once again and finally break out of all the bearish sentiment that is currently present within the market.

People will only believe events have an impact on the price when they see the price go up around the time the event is supposed to take place. These dumbos will buy into the hype and sell near the lowest point of the sell-off afterwards, not knowing they made a very stupid move. How will they attempt to 'correct' their stupid move? Right, by buying back higher. 

In all fairness, the speculative nature of this market is something you can't possibly time. It could just as easily be that the price will slowly trend up in the runup to the halving, stagnate for a couple of months, then take off. Most of the 500-1000% bull runs happen when most people don't expect them to happen. I'm perfectly fine if that will be the case this time. My time horizon goes far beyond the 6-12 months people usually focus on.

"Buy the rumor and sell the news" should always be the thing if you're smart enough but majority will definitely FOMO in as we do approach the halving event.
Nothing new and i agree that this event is just really the same with others but the impression towards it is different.Peoples mindset and beliefs are tagged out
on what happened on past halvings.For sure they would really stick out to that situation and believe that it would happen again.

What misconception are you talking about? They are just stating facts related to Bitcoin's halving and there are no mentions about it not rising before the halving begins. Yeah they might have stated all the facts but the point of the article was just about Bitcoin's halving and not about Bitcoin's historical price movement so for sure they would be leaving a lot of details because of that. IMO it's better to read articles to first sources like this (Reuters, Bloomberg, and Businessinsider) rather than crypto focuse news websites like CCN or CoinIdol where the news are more clickbaity and misleading compared to what we are having in a financial focus news website.

in terms of pricing in market information, the halving is psychologically no different than other news events. it's publicly known about and there is a discrete event date. for that reason, the "buy the rumor, sell the news" adage most likely applies, which is why we saw a large run-up in the months prior to the 2012 and 2016 halvings. smart traders and whales will probably front run the "sell the news" event by distributing before the actual halving takes place. perhaps in march or april.

with the halving only 5 months away, all i know is it's a dangerous time to be short......

I don't think anyone thinks it will have an immediate change in price.  The November 2012 halving and then the July 2016 halving didn't cause an immediate huge spike.  I remember watching for the first post-halving block.  It was like watching grass grow.  But anyway, it took time for the price to increase.  It wasn't until spring 2013 when it started to go up a lot (5-6 months), and then it wasn't until maybe spring 2017 after the July 2016 (6-8 months) halving that things started to look up in fiat price.

I think it went something like this:  People were anticipating the halving, had bought some bitcoin beforehand hoping to make a quick buck.  When it didn't spike that day, week or in the next month, people started selling think it wasn't going to happen.  It took months to clear out the bitcoin people had purchased prior to the halving.  Once that supply was cleared out, the impact of the limited new supply became apparent and the price ended up reflecting that over time.

So I wouldn't expect a spike in the middle of May 2020.  There will likely be some increased demand between now and May because people want to get in prior to the halving so the fiat price may go up but I wouldn't expect a big spike in price on May 14th (or whenever it ends up actually occurring) for the same reasons it hasn't happened in the past.

Will the next halving result in a similar price spike as the previous ones?  No one knows, but if new demand for bitcoin remains the same while the new supply is cut in half yes. 

I agree with the posters above that we can't be sure about the positive effect of the upcoming halving, but, at the same time, I think it is reasonable to expect it. After all, we are talking about producing 328,500 BTC less than before, yearly, and although not all mined coins immediately turn into supply, a big part of them quickly ends up on exchanges, increasing the supply, at least to some degree. Imo, the fact of removing 300k+ BTC from the possible yearly supply will surely have a psychological effect on the current and potential Bitcoin investors, resulting in the price rise.

No and no true cryptoneir will forget the halving day been publicly recognized but we still can't be sure if the promising result are priced in or already reflected either through the current market trend or litecoin halving result.

I made the above statement because of the bitcoin used range and if the good result don't happen, the whales can make it happen but like you said death and taxes are the only sure things.
Mind you, there are still some market season in crypto that always replicate itself market (ATH, blood bath and correction).

However, it also shows that the halving is not an immediate solution to end a bear market.

yeah and litecoin's rally ending in june 2019 topped 550% growth.

the references to 2012 and 2016 referred to bitcoin's halvings, since bitcoin similarly pumped prior to those events too.

Are you telling me that a pump after halving is certain to come simply because it is bitcoin, it is different. The only sure things in this world are death and taxes hehehe.

@figmentofmyass. Litecoin's last halving was on August 4, 2019.

You're forgetting that any 'promising results' may already be priced in - the knowledge and approximate date of halving being publicly known and all.

litecoin's halving pump was amazing. you think a 550% pump isn't gonna cause a severe correction afterwards?

with the BTC market so bearish for the last half year, the timing is lining up perfectly for a pre-halving pump and dump---just like we saw before the 2012 and 2016 halvings. the bearish sentiment is taking its toll---people are starting to question the halving narrative. this is a good thing from a contrarian investor point of view.

You compare Litecoin, an utter shitcoin, to Bitcoin. Not a good thing to do. Look at Litecoin's historical price activity. In 2018 it fell 50% below its 2013 high. It's purely used as a pump and dump scheme.

I remember back in 2013 when everyone (including myself) was saying that Litecoin would reach $50 when it would get listed on MtGox. It didn't get listed on MtGox but it reached that price anyway. Currently it trades at $42. 

What he tries to say is that people shouldn't buy in because of the halving to avoid getting rekt.

This is certainly a misleading articles but I'm very surprised that Reuters could permit such wrong information article posted on their site despite their reputation and now I'm started to think not about the site but the article writers who are not competent but something must be done about this because it could spread FUD or make the newbies believe in fake data.

I understood your statement and I'm also aware some people are comparing the result of litecoin halving with bitcoin upcoming halving  was the reason some people believe the result won't lift up to our expectations whereas the project which a lot of investors have lost confidence in ever it creator declared to have sold all his holding can't be used to justify the crypto which is widely used.

@posi. I did not say a promising result is certain not to occur. I am only saying to prepare for disappointment because it might also occur similar to litecoin's halving.

He's not talking about his own impression here but what the article he's s talking about says

Despite your ranking, I felt sad that you're also among those that believe the upcoming bitcoin halving not to yield a promising result. For your information you're totally and there are some surge event in the market that are logical bitcoin halving is among that event.

Right now, I have to admit of my disappointment with the way things are with Bitcoin as far as price and adoption is concerned. And I am sure many are feeling the same thing too partly also because we are having high expectations on Bitcoin as if a magical wand that can perform amazing tricks for all of us to see and experience. Obviously, Bitcoin should be considered as just at par with other investment vehicles already on the marketplace though it can be giving higher ROI. I am carefully watching the price movement as the halving is getting near, am sure there can be some pump somehow and that after the halving things will get back to where the price is now and can even go lower. Aside from halving, there is nothing really extraordinary to expect to happen with Bitcoin in 2020. The so-called institutional money that is supposed to be putting Bitcoin to a higher ground is not happening and even if it will there is no guarantee that it will not be even the reason for its pullback.

It will not destroy, however, it might shutdown some miners similar to litecoin's halving.

I reckon everyone should be ready and prepare to be disappointed on bitcoin after its halving to be safe and avoid a wallet breaking experience hehehe.

they always publish something that misled people to believe something else specially in politics. why bitcoin related article is posted in reuters is quit an exposure. i can't remember how many times they did this. somehow the message is to prepare for the price to go to mars and if you wanna ride along buy more.  halving is explained in the middle of the article though rewards cut in half.

If the author had clarified and written "new supply" throughout the article it would've been much clearer as to what they were attempting to say.

With previous halvings, I think that people seemed to think that the day that the halving occurred would coincide directly with an increase in price neglecting to realize that people had planned for that and these people panicked and sold right after the halving because it didn't immediately materialize.  If the past is any guide, the impact on price (as you note) occurs somewhat prior to the halving date and then hits in earnest 3-9 months later when the impact a smaller new supply is fully felt.

This is so true, these days most people just feed on whatever they hear from these crypto blog sites. They basically do a little bit of research about the information given and just heed to it. I don't blame though, researching and reading has become a pain in the butt to most people so they tend to follow blindly whatever is given to them.

Reuters is known to publish garbage just as much as other similar outlets do. It's all about efficiency, and when you know that most of their readers are considered dumb money, efficiency means that you can just release articles and "research" papers knowing that people will take it for granted right away.

Why do you think there is so much fake news? It's because the readers falling for that fake news are dumb, and let there be waaaay more dumb people than smart people. It's called news for the mass for a reason.

People somehow also believe that Bitcoin is a deflationary currency, which it currently clearly isn't. The number of coins in circulation has done nothing but grow, so how can that possibly be a deflationary currency? All it takes to realize that is common sense and a very basic level of market understanding.

And to think that this is published in Reuters. They should be hiring an expert in Bitcoin or cryptocurrency to check the facts and details before clicking publish. I really don't get it why some media people are still in the dark with things that have something to do with Bitcoin. Of course, the halving does not mean that the supply of Bitcoin will be cut in half, that can be absurd. Actually, many people were thinking that way years ago but they realized and laughed to know that this is really referring to the Bitcoin mining rewards. At any rate, any publicity on Bitcoin can still be publicity and can be helping no matter what with its marketing.

https://www.reuters.com/article/us-crypto-currencies-halving-idUSKBN1YN19A

Yet another journalist promoting the misconception that the halving reduces the supply of bitcoins. The opening paragraph is correct but the remainder of the article replaces "production" with "supply". The author is then obligated to explain how lower supply and constant demand effect the price.

The article also notes that the price rose in the years following the halvings, but neglects to mention the fact that the price also rose in the years preceding the halvings.