[2020-03-02] Mike Novogratz Explains Why Bitcoin (BTC) Is Failing as Safe Haven

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Quote from: Lucius on March 03, 2020, 06:01:32 AM

Bitcoin is falling as safe haven at the moment because it is still quite complicated and extremely volatile asset. When I say too complicated, I mean on the average person who knows some basics on a computer and uses ATM cards, but nothing more that. On the other hand, big players also have problems how to quickly and efficiently transfer value from, say, stocks/gold to Bitcoin.

If such a crisis wiped out literally over $5 trillion from the stock market overnight, and even affect gold why does anyone think that Bitcoin can be immune to such a disorder? Especially when we consider the total market value of Bitcoin and very likely less than 1% of the world population that is somehow involved with the crypto market.

Although many may think that the price of BTC has fallen solely because of the crisis with COVID-19, I think it had only a small share, and that a fairly normal correction followed after the price reached $10 500.

It was never the safe haven in the way the bitcoin maximalists are hyping it. It might never be if it is forever pegged to the supreme military backed American dollar hehehe.

@hatshepsut93. Down versus what? The versus what might be the safe heaven hehehe.

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Quote from: gentlemand on March 03, 2020, 06:13:59 AM

Anyone who believes BTC will thrive in a global cratering in its current position has spent too long reading r/bitcoin and nothing else. In a decade or two there might the glimmer of a possibility. Deffo not now.

And cash of course is not a great thing to be in long term, however it's not for the long term. All the same I wouldn't want to attempt to time it.

Indeed, people seem to confuse safe heavens with things like long-term hedge - safe heavens are meant to be used to wait out the panic and then go back to your previous positions. They aren't even supposed to be hugely profitable or profitable at all, they just need to not lose value too fast when the panic starts. So, if for example gold is down 1% while the stocks are down 7%, then gold is a safe heaven.

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Quote from: gentlemand on March 03, 2020, 11:58:27 AM

Quote from: Harlot on March 03, 2020, 11:50:26 AM

~snip~

I have no doubt that a decent number of big Wall St willies do have some BTC now, enough to have an effect if they decide to offload. It doesn't exist in a vacuum of its own creation any more. It would be a lot easier to think that if this were 2013.

I don't know or care whether that affects the current price action but it's time to start considering correlation when ownership overlaps with the normal markets.

There might be some big players and even institutional investors holding some Bitcoin but not all of them are as big as what the whales we have in the market right now, if I always think about traditional (stock) investors I always think about big people like Warren Buffet always having negative comments towards about it so I won't be surprised that other traditional investors have the same view as him maybe only a few considerable big stock investors are holding BTC but it won't be a decent amount to influence the market. The even bigger possibility is this are whales are the ones taking advantage of the bad news and are starting to short Bitcoin so that they can buy it cheaper again they have done it in the past on taking advantage of the market scare and I won't be surprised that they are doing it again.

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Quote from: Harlot on March 03, 2020, 11:50:26 AM

Novogratz is basically assuming that most stock holders are also Bitcoin holders that's why there is also a sell off happening in the market which I doubt is correct. There is no studies that shows investors in the stock market are also holding Bitcoin nor any studies that denies it.

I have no doubt that a decent number of big Wall St willies do have some BTC now, enough to have an effect if they decide to offload. It doesn't exist in a vacuum of its own creation any more. It would be a lot easier to think that if this were 2013.

I don't know or care whether that affects the current price action but it's time to start considering correlation when ownership overlaps with the normal markets.

Harlot

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Novogratz is basically assuming that most stock holders are also Bitcoin holders that's why there is also a sell off happening in the market which I doubt is correct. There is no studies that shows investors in the stock market are also holding Bitcoin nor any studies that denies it. You may think right now since bad mews are piling up from last week it mat somehow be the cause of Bitcoin's price falling but like what I have said in my previous related posts Bitcoin was bound to correct starting last week considering the price it had achieved and how overbought it was, the timing of the bad mews was just very coincidental.

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Quote from: cr1776 on March 01, 2020, 10:09:10 PM

Coronavirus, and Bernie were the big fears last week!

In my opinion, despite Coronavirus panic is still widespread in the whole world and there are too much financial losses in the economy of countries especially, China but we can't say and confirm that these bad events was the reason for the falling of Bitcoin until now. Furthermore, it may be another manipulation from the whales or other reason, remember that we can't see the real facts in the social media.

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Quote from: cr1776 on March 03, 2020, 09:12:00 AM

I agree with you, short term, cash is fine, but not long term. As far as whether bitcoin would thrive, I think a lot depends on uptake. Every year with more people holding it as a safe haven, and particularly this year with the new supply halving, bitcoin becomes more and more a tool to protect one's wealth from authoritarians the world over who will use any means possible to obtain someone else's wealth.

One potential upside is that the willingness of governments to throw every last fleck of shit at the wall to prop the whole thing up will become ever starker and it might drive more people to think the whole thing through and look for alternatives.

I'm sure more and more people are looking at their own standard of living since 2008 and the numbers being claimed and wondering where that supposed prosperity is.

That's something that'll pay off considerably further down the line than right now but some day it will. In the meantime we'll just have to man up and hunker down.

cr1776

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Quote from: gentlemand on March 03, 2020, 06:13:59 AM

Anyone who believes BTC will thrive in a global cratering in its current position has spent too long reading r/bitcoin and nothing else. In a decade or two there might the glimmer of a possibility. Deffo not now.

And cash of course is not a great thing to be in long term, however it's not for the long term. All the same I wouldn't want to attempt to time it.

I agree with you, short term, cash is fine, but not long term. As far as whether bitcoin would thrive, I think a lot depends on uptake. Every year with more people holding it as a safe haven, and particularly this year with the new supply halving, bitcoin becomes more and more a tool to protect one's wealth from authoritarians the world over who will use any means possible to obtain someone else's wealth.

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Quote from: LeGaulois on March 02, 2020, 02:55:31 PM

...
Vaccine where? I read it may be available in a few months only, and up to now 3000 persons died and 80k are infected...In a few months, a lot of things can happen

Also to point out here, that there are 80k *known* infected.

In all likelihood that is way underestimating the actual number. In the US for example, I suspect it will get into the thousands over the next week or two given that now they are ramping up testing whereas before it was very limited. So it will in all likelihood show a big increase in the number of people infected, it will only be due to testing showing that people are infected.

As far as a vaccine, hopefully it will be 'a few months' but given how slow things go from a testing and regulatory standpoint, it could be 12-18 months.

gentlemand

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Anyone who believes BTC will thrive in a global cratering in its current position has spent too long reading r/bitcoin and nothing else. In a decade or two there might the glimmer of a possibility. Deffo not now.

And cash of course is not a great thing to be in long term, however it's not for the long term. All the same I wouldn't want to attempt to time it.

Lucius

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Bitcoin is falling as safe haven at the moment because it is still quite complicated and extremely volatile asset. When I say too complicated, I mean on the average person who knows some basics on a computer and uses ATM cards, but nothing more that. On the other hand, big players also have problems how to quickly and efficiently transfer value from, say, stocks/gold to Bitcoin.

If such a crisis wiped out literally over $5 trillion from the stock market overnight, and even affect gold why does anyone think that Bitcoin can be immune to such a disorder? Especially when we consider the total market value of Bitcoin and very likely less than 1% of the world population that is somehow involved with the crypto market.

Although many may think that the price of BTC has fallen solely because of the crisis with COVID-19, I think it had only a small share, and that a fairly normal correction followed after the price reached $10 500.

Thekool1s

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Quote from: LeGaulois

Vaccine where? I read it may be available in a few months only, and up to now 3000 persons died and 80k are infected...In a few months, a lot of things can happen

Australia as of last time I checked... I'm not reading much from random sources, I'm following "Doctor Mike" on youtube: https://www.youtube.com/channel/UC0QHWhjbe5fGJEPz3sVb6nw/videos Do check the guy out... He puts out all the official sources he is quoting his stuff from... The "fatality rate" of covid-19 is less than of Original SARS... Some people have already been found to be immune to it so that's that as well. I dunno the technical terms but their blood is also being tested to why they have this immunity. It won't cause the end of the world that I'm willing to bet on... #AlertNotAnxious.

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However, it is also being hypocritical of us that we base the value of bitcoin on the unsafe, inflated dollar.

Lol! You do know that 45% of the world isn't connected to the internet right?... Last time I checked Bitcoin wasn't the "global reserve currency" and we don't have the adoption rate where things can be pegged against bitcoin directly... Right now the global economy is based on FIAT be it Dollar, yen or Euro, Until these scams fade away cryptocurrencies are the last thing we will peg our 'goods' against... there is nothing 'hypocritical' of 'us' for valuing Bitcoin on the unsafe, inflated dollar. Just shows our adaptability Cheesy

cr1776

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Quote from: bbc.reporter on March 02, 2020, 08:30:47 PM

Quote from: Thekool1s on March 02, 2020, 02:42:20 AM

Quote from: cr1776

Anyone who thinks cash or bonds are a safe Haven is ignoring the effect of inflation which will destroy all their value over time.

Exactly! Besides, it's being hypocritical. All these peeps do is brag about how your money should be 'working' for you 24/7. Your 'Cash' shouldn't be sitting in your bank accounts but rather should be invested and so on... and when there is a looming crisis on their head they eat up their own words... this shit is funny to watch...

However, it is also being hypocritical of us that we base the value of bitcoin on the unsafe, inflated dollar.

In any case, cash and bonds might be the safe haven only for during bear markets hehehe.

Exactly, with the "hehehe". 😀 You are right, with perfect 20/20 foresight, many things can be a safe haven since one always knows what's coming. 😀

As far as valuing it, true, it isn't perfect, but it is the main option right now. Although a btc/gold pair wouldn't be bad. One key difference right now is, of course, the fact that over the long term such as several decades, fiat loses a tremendous amount of value/purchasing power, whereas bitcoin has gained it over the last ten years. Fiat is like a slow leak of air from a tire. Bitcoin has been a rapidly inflating tire with some intervening ups and downs in value aka pressure.

I do keep most things invested pretty much continuously though since my crystal ball isn't working well for the short term, but has a good track record for longer term trends.

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Quote from: Thekool1s on March 02, 2020, 02:42:20 AM

Quote from: cr1776

Anyone who thinks cash or bonds are a safe Haven is ignoring the effect of inflation which will destroy all their value over time.

Exactly! Besides, it's being hypocritical. All these peeps do is brag about how your money should be 'working' for you 24/7. Your 'Cash' shouldn't be sitting in your bank accounts but rather should be invested and so on... and when there is a looming crisis on their head they eat up their own words... this shit is funny to watch...

However, it is also being hypocritical of us that we base the value of bitcoin on the unsafe, inflated dollar.

In any case, cash and bonds might be the safe haven only for during bear markets hehehe.

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It's highlighting the drop of bitcoin for the past week but ignoring that other assets got ripped off as well. But the day has come and most of them are recovering so do bitcoin does.

Quote from: cr1776 on March 01, 2020, 10:09:10 PM

Anyone who thinks cash or bonds are a safe Haven is ignoring the effect of inflation which will destroy all their value over time.

I agree as well, if cash is a safe haven. Let's see how much $1,000 will be after few years or let's say after a decade.

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CHF and XAU too are going down, over 7% in less than a week. If the Swiss franc and gold are declining, there is no reason for Bitcoin to not follow the trend of the 'safe haven'. Then what? Perhaps he should at investment in art or wine if he want to see 'stable' safe havens.
In fear periods almost everything declines

Quote from: Thekool1s on March 02, 2020, 02:42:20 AM

...

Vaccine where? I read it may be available in a few months only, and up to now 3000 persons died and 80k are infected...In a few months, a lot of things can happen

Thekool1s

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Quote from: cr1776

Anyone who thinks cash or bonds are a safe Haven is ignoring the effect of inflation which will destroy all their value over time.

Exactly! Besides, it's being hypocritical. All these peeps do is brag about how your money should be 'working' for you 24/7. Your 'Cash' shouldn't be sitting in your bank accounts but rather should be invested and so on... and when there is a looming crisis on their head they eat up their own words... this shit is funny to watch...

Quote from: Mike Novogratz: https://twitter.com/novogratz/status/1234133971400904704

When things go from bad, to very very bad like they did last week, investors take leverage down as fast as they can.

Lol, didn't know the world ended last week. I guess I might be the last 100 people surviving on this planet. "very very bad"? Bitch, it's equivalent of a 'common flu' and we already have vaccines which will be readily available to everyone within a few months. These guys love to spread FUD, don't they... Also, I guess he doesn't follow bitcoin much. Fluctuations of +-$1000 are a common occurrence, this drop is coincidental at best given Bitcoin's history and I can back this up with data...

smdh... Another shit article...

cr1776

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Coronavirus, and Bernie were the big fears last week! Anyone who thinks cash or bonds are a safe Haven is ignoring the effect of inflation which will destroy all their value over time.

Bitcoin could be safe from Bernie, if one needs to get out from socialism's capital controls to somewhere that is compatible with freedom, not slavery.

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Also Peter Schiff's gold did not escape the fear of what triggered the big dump last week. Some journalists alleged that it was the effects of the corona virus on the economy.

However, that was not what caught my attention in this article. It is the final statement telling us that bonds and cash are the real safe havens. Is tether the real safe haven of the cryptospace hehehehe?

From the U.S. stock market suffering from its quickest correction since the Great Depression to oil prices plummeting 16 percent — this week will surely go down in history.

When global markets got gripped by a ruthless sell-off, Bitcoin failed to serve as a store of value, which many believe should be its main use case. In fact, BTC performed worse than any traditional asset, shedding 15 percent of its value in less than a week. At press time, it is just trading just below its key support level of $8,500.

One of the biggest surprises of this tumultuous week was the gold price recording a five percent drop on Friday. The yellow metal is considered to be the most robust store of value.

Just like during the 2008 crisis, investors started liquidating both stocks and gold for covering their margin calls. Bonds and cash turned out to be the real safe haven.

Read in full https://u.today/mike-novogratz-explains-why-bitcoin-btc-is-failing-as-safe-haven

Topic: [2020-03-02] Mike Novogratz Explains Why Bitcoin (BTC) Is Failing as Safe Haven (Read 227 times)