Topic: [2020-11-02]Bitcoin Is Braced For A U.S. Election Earthquake This Week (Read 153 times)

Many great contributions so far  
@Lucius
you clearly know that non-Americans can not dismiss what is going to be the end result. America still is the first world superpower and whoever takes charge is going to influence other countries in one way or the other.

@cr1776
All-in! I agree with everything you said and I would quote especially what I feel it is of the greatest importance:

1. If you get an authoritarian socialist/fascist like Kamala and Biden channeling Bernie and AOC, people are going to want bitcoin to protect themselves from the claws of the "free stuff" is better than "freedom" crowd.  If Biden wins, smart people are going to be protecting their assets between now and January 2021 if they haven't already.

2. That said, don't believe the polls. Many are exercises in voter suppression or push polling - they want to dispirit Trump supporters or push people to vote a certain way.
Most of the pollsters are worse than weather people doing the next day forecast.  “30% chance of rain, 75-85 for the high” doesn’t add any useful information. Some polls had Reagan trailing Carter by 8 points in mid-October 1980.  In the Mondale/Reagan race, at one point Mondale had a 53-44 point lead over Reagan and Reagan ended up winning 49 of 50 states.  In July 1988, Dukakis was up over Bush 55-38.  Ditto Trump vs Hillary as you know.

3. Given how when Trump was called as the winner in 2016, markets (e.g. the Dow) dropped 750-1000 points initially, and then began a huge bull-market rebound early the next morning until March 2020 with covid and have pretty much recovered now, the prospects for the market with a Trump win would be good.

If Biden were to win and then put Warren and her ilk in power the impact on US growth and business would be significant.  Would the market go down?  Who knows.  Would it go up less than under a pro-freedom president?  Probably, but no one knows for sure.

Bitcoin can protect you from any form of authoritarian statist who might take power.  It can protect you because you can flee with it, protect you from the ravages of inflation, or just have something that the mob can't seize.  Plus all the other uses.


Remember when the government controls (or can control) everything, everything becomes political.  Everything becomes a political fight to the death: one side wanting power and control, the other wanting liberty and live and let live.  When one side can take everything because someone else "needs it" no one's life or property is safe.

But such analyzes are primarily intended for those who see BTC only as an asset through which to make a profit, and now the whole world is wondering what will happen if one old fart replaces another - which is completely irrelevant to me personally if we know that American politics is constantly aggressive no matter what the name of their president is.

The centralization of power when it comes to mining is bad, but so is the uniform implementation of regulations that are just spreading from the world's largest democracy. Their influence on Bitcoin is growing, and we all know that the whole world is full of those who are their faithful servants and will do whatever is asked of them.

I would like people to pay more attention to what is happening in their countries and who they choose in their elections - instead of having fun watching two old men fight for a position in a way that most of the world's media described as utterly inappropriate and beneath any political correctness.

Do you really want to find an answer? I have something for you if you haven't read it already
https://www.forbes.com/sites/sergeiklebnikov/2020/07/23/historical-stock-market-returns-under-every-us-president/
We can make no prediction but it is interesting the get insights from the past (knowing the past sometimes it is the best tool to understand present and future trends).

Would the American equites markets react positively on a Trump victory or a Biden victory? The price of bitcoin might closely be attached more to the reaction of equities from the election than from the result of the election.

I believe that is unavoidable. There are some events which have a huge impact on markets but to have a wider view is very important too.
I will point you to the following SEBA Bank analysis: they looked at how bitcoin has behaved over the past five years during four distinct macroeconomic events that triggered market corrections (Grexit, China currency devaluation, Brexit and Trade War). It was noted that bitcoin was not affected by macroeconomic uncertainty and has consistently out-performed traditional assets in all four events. I guess that's something to have in mind too.
https://www.seba.swiss/research/crypto-assets-an-emerging-asset-class

The amazing thing is that everything (even Bitcoin) revolves around the US presidential election and who will be the next president - and that the whole world is so centralized around one center of power that determines the fate of Bitcoin (at least in the short term). On the other side of the world, I don't want to depend on what happens if the American president gets on the wrong foot or what new madness he does tomorrow. The policy pursued by the US since the end of WW2 is to control the world as much as possible, and it is completely irrelevant what the name of the puppet who will sit in the White House for the next 4 years will be.

Bitcoin was supposed to change people’s addiction to such insane policies, and the opposite is happening - when I hear statements like “I’ll invest in Bitcoin if Biden wins” I wonder if there’s any chance at all that people will start thinking differently.

The 2020 U.S. election has put the country on course for its highest turnout in a century—with campaigns and candidates dominating headlines.

The bitcoin price has soared in the run-up to the election, adding a massive 30% through October and riding a raft of positive news to hit highs not seen since early 2018.

Now, with Democratic challenger Joe Biden finding a solid lead in national polls over incumbent Donald Trump, bitcoin traders and investors are braced as candidates head into the last day of campaigning, with global markets already on edge.

More here https://www.forbes.com/sites/billybambrough/2020/11/02/bitcoin-is-braced-for-a-us-election-earthquake-this-week/

I am very curious about how the US election may impact Bitcoin's price activity. It seems markets are waiting for it.