[2020-11-15] What We’re Getting Wrong About Druckenmiller and Bitcoin

cr1776

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Quote from: Karartma1 on November 17, 2020, 05:51:57 AM

I agree with most of all your remarks about Druckenmiller's position and the article in general. My only comment goes in this direction: we should never forget CoinDesk's audience: they have slowly made their way into the likes of WSJ, Business Insider, Forbes etc.
I think they have a very clear agenda and we can expect more articles like this one.
stomachgrowls, I see your point but Bitcoin is not about its community anymore. The kid is becoming a man too rapidly.
cr1776 and DooMAD, you guys are always spot on

I think you are right except perhaps more click-baity than WSJ/Forbes etc. lol. I always hope that they improve with time as they improve their situation and increase readership. There may always be hope for it. :-)

Karartma1

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I agree with most of all your remarks about Druckenmiller's position and the article in general. My only comment goes in this direction: we should never forget CoinDesk's audience: they have slowly made their way into the likes of WSJ, Business Insider, Forbes etc.
I think they have a very clear agenda and we can expect more articles like this one.
stomachgrowls, I see your point but Bitcoin is not about its community anymore. The kid is becoming a man too rapidly.
cr1776 and DooMAD, you guys are always spot on

stomachgrowls

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Quote from: NeuroticFish on November 16, 2020, 11:46:41 AM

Quote from: DooMAD on November 16, 2020, 09:55:12 AM

Isn't that just a lengthy way of saying he likes it because it's volatile?

I think that what's he's saying is that with capped max quantity and increasing number of investors/hoarders the price of Bitcoin can only go up fast. And it also has quite a good history of updates, hence it's stable and mature enough.
I think that he's holding, not actually day-trading, hence the daily volatility doesn't matter much.

Im thinking the same on where he had been holding for a while now and telling some positivity and just trying to shill out for him to release of his bag when a certain price do hits up?

Im already numb when it comes to shilling or positive sentiments that do came from traditional markets, hedge managers or people who are die-hard fan of fiat.

No matter what those words spit out into his mouth, most people of this community do know on whats Bitcoin is all about.

DooMAD

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Leave no FUD unchallenged

Quote from: cr1776 on November 16, 2020, 02:24:53 PM

Bitcoin's bid/ask spread is similar (or better) than gold's.

And even if it wasn't, illiquidity still wouldn't be a "barrier to entry" unless you had plans for using some high-frequency-trading algorithm. The rate at which Grayscale are hoovering up BTC is evidence enough that there's sufficient liquidity and that the appetite is definitely there for institutional investors.

It's as though the author of the article is slowly realising that all their assumptions were wrong and then decides it would be a good idea to write as if everyone had made the same wrong assumptions. Cheesy

cr1776

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Quote from: Karartma1 on November 16, 2020, 05:34:45 AM

Adding his sonorous voice to the chorus of renowned investors talking about bitcoin recently, hedge fund manager Stanley Druckenmiller stated on a CNBC interview this week that he believed bitcoin could perform better than gold.
“I own many, many more times gold than I own bitcoin, but frankly if the gold bet works, the bitcoin bet will probably work better because it’s thinner and more illiquid and has a lot more beta to it.“
This is worth diving into a bit, because the statement is good news for the industry, but it is not the bullish affirmation that it initially seems.
This is not Druckenmiller saying that bitcoin has a better value proposition than gold, or that it has a harder cap or that decentralization is the way to go.
No, this is Druckenmiller saying that bitcoin has more upside because of its market inefficiencies. Let that sink in: The very characteristics that many investors have cited as barriers to investment are what a renowned investor believes will award bitcoin a better performance.

Source https://www.coindesk.com/druckenmiller-bitcoin-what-he-really-said

The premise that "this is Druckenmiller saying that bitcoin has more upside because of its market inefficiencies" is completely a bogus one from an author who isn't well enough informed to write on the topic intelligently. I don't see him saying there are market inefficiencies. Don't waste your time on the original article.

1. A "thin market" is not a market inefficiency, it is just a lack of supply at a particular price. That is how markets work. Eventually, say at $7,000,000/bitcoin, there will be an equalization of supply and demand.

2. Ditto for being "illiquid". Bitcoin's bid/ask spread is similar (or better) than gold's.

3. A high beta does not indicate an inefficient market, it is merely related to volatility.

In short, the premise is wrong as is the conclusion.

NeuroticFish

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Quote from: DooMAD on November 16, 2020, 09:55:12 AM

Isn't that just a lengthy way of saying he likes it because it's volatile?

I think that what's he's saying is that with capped max quantity and increasing number of investors/hoarders the price of Bitcoin can only go up fast. And it also has quite a good history of updates, hence it's stable and mature enough.
I think that he's holding, not actually day-trading, hence the daily volatility doesn't matter much.

DooMAD

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Activity: 3724

Merit: 3063

Leave no FUD unchallenged

Quote from: Karartma1 on November 16, 2020, 05:34:45 AM

Adding his sonorous voice to the chorus of renowned investors talking about bitcoin recently, hedge fund manager Stanley Druckenmiller stated on a CNBC interview this week that he believed bitcoin could perform better than gold.
“I own many, many more times gold than I own bitcoin, but frankly if the gold bet works, the bitcoin bet will probably work better because it’s thinner and more illiquid and has a lot more beta to it.“
This is worth diving into a bit, because the statement is good news for the industry, but it is not the bullish affirmation that it initially seems.
This is not Druckenmiller saying that bitcoin has a better value proposition than gold, or that it has a harder cap or that decentralization is the way to go.
No, this is Druckenmiller saying that bitcoin has more upside because of its market inefficiencies. Let that sink in: The very characteristics that many investors have cited as barriers to investment are what a renowned investor believes will award bitcoin a better performance.

Source https://www.coindesk.com/druckenmiller-bitcoin-what-he-really-said

Isn't that just a lengthy way of saying he likes it because it's volatile?

I don't think "Hedge fund manager likes volatile assets" sounds all that newsworthy, really.

Karartma1

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Adding his sonorous voice to the chorus of renowned investors talking about bitcoin recently, hedge fund manager Stanley Druckenmiller stated on a CNBC interview this week that he believed bitcoin could perform better than gold.
“I own many, many more times gold than I own bitcoin, but frankly if the gold bet works, the bitcoin bet will probably work better because it’s thinner and more illiquid and has a lot more beta to it.“
This is worth diving into a bit, because the statement is good news for the industry, but it is not the bullish affirmation that it initially seems.
This is not Druckenmiller saying that bitcoin has a better value proposition than gold, or that it has a harder cap or that decentralization is the way to go.
No, this is Druckenmiller saying that bitcoin has more upside because of its market inefficiencies. Let that sink in: The very characteristics that many investors have cited as barriers to investment are what a renowned investor believes will award bitcoin a better performance.

Source https://www.coindesk.com/druckenmiller-bitcoin-what-he-really-said

Topic: [2020-11-15] What We’re Getting Wrong About Druckenmiller and Bitcoin (Read 124 times)