TRADE CLOSED IN PROFIT
- So yesterday evening I added to the position around 7639 and tightened my stoploss to 7491.
https://www.tradingview.com/x/IdGaYIdv/- The reason for this addition is that we got an Eliott Wave Flat and brice began drawing an Eliott Wave Impulse so the bottom of the Flat was an obvious place that would negate my view.
https://www.tradingview.com/x/gzZyBAEm/- I had a take profit at 7820 and got lucky - price achieved this target on Bitmex futures but not on XBT index and trade got closed.
- Total profit: 0.0199 BTC (55%).
CURRENT STATS- Bankroll: 0.056 BTC.
- Return since the beginning: 1.55x.
- Number of trades: 1.
- Number of profitable trades: 1.
SHORT-TERM VIEW
- We are climbing towards 8k. (Big Round number, MA200 Daily, Trendline)
https://www.tradingview.com/x/hUKs9UmU/- This level will probably act as a magnet and pull the price.
- Correction of a larger upwards move seems to be done.
https://www.tradingview.com/x/RtCIu0Y5/- Since the end of this correction towards 8k we should get an Impulse or Ending Diagonal as it's 5th wave of a larger impulse.
- Doesn't look like an impulse because waves are overlapping each other.
- Strongest resistance is around 7740 and strongest support around 7600.
https://www.tradingview.com/x/lNRnATyk/- Wave 1 is done and Wave 2 was Flat.
https://www.tradingview.com/x/Hcf87K4K/- Since the end of Wave 2 Flat we got a clear Impulse and clear ABC correction.
https://www.tradingview.com/x/Oo0tESYH/- Seems like Wave 3 is not done yet and we will break out of 7740 area with an Impulsive move.
- The end of Wave 3 will be around 7840-7900 area.
https://www.tradingview.com/x/imsgh3F2/- Once Wave 3 is done I expect a strong rejection to retest 7600 support. Wave 2 was Flat so Wave 4 most likely will be a sharp zigzag.
https://www.tradingview.com/x/cxD1DpZj/- After that we will get a very sharp, very fast Wave 5 that will retest the 8k area.
https://www.tradingview.com/x/wZub7XlK/- As this will be an Ending Diagonal that meets a confluence of strong resistances I expect a very strong move once it's done.
https://www.tradingview.com/x/lNNNBUXh/
NEXT STEPS- I will get long soon to catch Wave C of Wave 3 towards 7840 area.
- After that I will be waiting for a sharp Zigzag to retest 7600.
- At 7600 I will jump in and ride long towards 7900-8k.
OPENED A NEW TRADE
- I went long at 7724 with Take Profit at 7840.
- Stoploss is at 7382 and I went all in again.
- I could place the Stoploss at 7636 and risk smaller % of my bankroll, but I don't want to be stopped out by some random noise.
- I am riding Wave C of Wave 3.
https://www.tradingview.com/x/dGpMnWVA/
MEDIUM TO LONG TERM VIEW UPDATE- I believe we are in a bull market and are going towards $50k in 2020. Bottom is in and we won’t fall below $4k again.
- People are in the state of panic and uncertainty due to coronavirus pandemic which is a great ground for a bull market to develop.
- Governments all around the world are printing shit ton of money and I believe part of it will go into crypto. As an example, tons of relief checks ($1200) were deposited on Coinbase as soon as people received it.
- When crypto becomes too large a danger for governments it will be banned the same way as gold was confiscated in the US in 1930s.
- I believe that they will start to take notice when BTC reaches $100k, at that time I will probably take my chips off the table and leave the crypto space. Until then we are good to go.
- Now the question is whether we will go straight up from 7200
https://www.tradingview.com/x/rdcgxIZl/ or do some larger pullback after this 100% move
https://www.tradingview.com/x/YnyEwPk0/- Yesterday I leaned toward the first option. But now I think market will trick people who are shorting to the bottom, give them a sharp fall and then immediately turn back up.
- I don't know those 2 options are what's in the cards now.
- The most important points on the chart are MA200 weekly (5700) and MA200 daily (8000). I think it's possible to retest 5700 after touching 8k.
- It can be argued that Wave 1 of a new bull market is done and now we are in a correction.
https://www.tradingview.com/x/kfYHInpT/- It's possible that the down move from the top of said Wave 1 was Impulsive and now the climb up is corrective (ABC).
https://www.tradingview.com/x/dZUJZwgt/- If that's the case then we will get another Impulse down which might retest 5700 and give people feeling that we are in a bear market.
https://www.tradingview.com/x/WiJM5h90/- Let's assume that being the case for a moment.
- Ending diagonal precedes a sharp move in the opposite direction. The first support is 7200 and the next is around 6950.
- First wave of a C wave might get us to 6950.
https://www.tradingview.com/x/N5mD8Q0I/- It will be either end of the correction
https://www.tradingview.com/x/1zHldUer/ or just a Wave 1 of C.
https://www.tradingview.com/x/Zp7z5wxA/- I think the second option is more likely.
- To recap, the most likely scenario for now is a sharp impulsive move down towards 5700 after 8k gets touched.