2021-02-17 - yahoo! - BTC to new highs, analysts warn about price sustainability

DapanasFruit

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Quote from: Streets 2.0 on February 17, 2021, 03:55:21 PM

"Analysts Warn" Great article start!

But my question is when, with such a "rally", we will see a "ceiling" and when we will bury ourselves in it, how quickly and to what price values will bitcoin fall? After all, this is the main question that worries many people today. Huh

And just like any asset openly traded, things can go where the sentiment of the people are. I mean the more that we are worrying when the fall after the rise then the more the chance that it can really happen. This can be likened to a self-fulfilling prophecy. Well, we can't blame many for expecting such a crash all because it happened before, like in 2018 where we enter the "winter" state of the whole cryptocurrency industry pushing many bad projects to the brink of death. At the back of our mind though we are hoping that will never happen again but in an open market nothing can be guaranteed.

bbc.reporter

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Quote from: acquafredda on February 20, 2021, 12:19:08 PM

Quote from: bbc.reporter on February 19, 2021, 09:20:26 PM

@acquafredda. This is not about what you care or do not care about. This is about bitcoin’s own issuance being a danger or becoming a failure in itself. Also, I am not directly comparing bitcoin to premined altcoins. I love bitcoin, it is the best project in the cryptospace. However, its issuance is becoming very comparable to premined altcoins.

I would also argue on the statement that the bitcoin market is mature. It is still very much volatile and behaves similar to a penny stock.

In any case, the argument about the failing issuance on bitcoin is not new. Wei Dai has argued about this before already.

I would consider Bitcoin to have failed with regard to its monetary policy (because the policy causes high price volatility which imposes a heavy cost on its users, who have to either take undesirable risks or engage in costly hedging in order to use the currency). (This may have been partially my fault because when Satoshi wrote to me asking for comments on his draft paper, I never got back to him. Otherwise perhaps I could have dissuaded him (or them) from the "fixed supply of money" idea.)

Source https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/P9jggxRZTMJcjnaPw/bitcoins-are-not-digital-greenbacks

I defend my current stance and in any case the issuance of bitcoin gave EVERYONE over an 10 years lifespan the possibility to acquire them at any possible acquisition cost. Those who were smart enough to see the future bought and held hard whatever the circumstances. Now big sharks are rushing to buy as much as they can still I fail to see any resemble with a pre-mined ETH for example.
That is the way I see it.

That is not the point of the argument because it still does not change that bitcoin’s monetary policy is flawed. Also, did it really give everyone a chance? The limited supply argues against this. A limited supply cryptocoin only gave early adopters the chance to get ahead and get rich.

In any case, let us agree to disagree and remember this argument in 10 years.

Sithara007

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Quote from: Xavofat on February 18, 2021, 07:25:59 AM

Since the block reward halves every 210,000 blocks (~4 years) half of all Bitcoins that will ever be mined were mined by around the start of 2013, at which point the price was as low as $15. It's no wonder, therefore, that a large proportion of Bitcoins are either lost or not in circulation. Where this becomes a problem is if just a small percentage of these early miners begin to unload coins, the price will fall significantly. I expect that many of them, rather than having coins which will just never enter circulation as the article implies, are biding their time and selling a bit at a time, which will increase the supply alongside the million or so new coins that will also enter the market before the next halving.

I definitely disagree with the 78% figure because a significant amount of BTC is being held by people who are waiting for ideal times and by exchange cold wallets.

I also have my doubts on the 78% figure given by Yahoo Finance. Would like to see the methodology they used to reach this figure. If they classified all the coins that haven't moved during the last 12 months as those with no intend to sell, then even my coins would fall under that category. But it is simply not true. I have intention to sell and I will do it at the right time. Just because I haven't moved my coins that doesn't mean that I am going to hold on to them for the next 20 years.

acquafredda

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Quote from: bbc.reporter on February 19, 2021, 09:20:26 PM

@acquafredda. This is not about what you care or do not care about. This is about bitcoin’s own issuance being a danger or becoming a failure in itself. Also, I am not directly comparing bitcoin to premined altcoins. I love bitcoin, it is the best project in the cryptospace. However, its issuance is becoming very comparable to premined altcoins.

I would also argue on the statement that the bitcoin market is mature. It is still very much volatile and behaves similar to a penny stock.

In any case, the argument about the failing issuance on bitcoin is not new. Wei Dai has argued about this before already.

I would consider Bitcoin to have failed with regard to its monetary policy (because the policy causes high price volatility which imposes a heavy cost on its users, who have to either take undesirable risks or engage in costly hedging in order to use the currency). (This may have been partially my fault because when Satoshi wrote to me asking for comments on his draft paper, I never got back to him. Otherwise perhaps I could have dissuaded him (or them) from the "fixed supply of money" idea.)

Source https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/P9jggxRZTMJcjnaPw/bitcoins-are-not-digital-greenbacks

I defend my current stance and in any case the issuance of bitcoin gave EVERYONE over an 10 years lifespan the possibility to acquire them at any possible acquisition cost. Those who were smart enough to see the future bought and held hard whatever the circumstances. Now big sharks are rushing to buy as much as they can still I fail to see any resemble with a pre-mined ETH for example.
That is the way I see it.

buwaytress

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Paypal is one among many others who will continue to "sell" bitcoin to people regardless of how much physical coins they actually have backing up their books.

Fact that most of these platforms don't even actually have a bitcoin wallet, never mind even allow users to withdraw actual bitcoin (can only sell back).

bbc.reporter

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@acquafredda. This is not about what you care or do not care about. This is about bitcoin’s own issuance being a danger or becoming a failure in itself. Also, I am not directly comparing bitcoin to premined altcoins. I love bitcoin, it is the best project in the cryptospace. However, its issuance is becoming very comparable to premined altcoins.

I would also argue on the statement that the bitcoin market is mature. It is still very much volatile and behaves similar to a penny stock.

In any case, the argument about the failing issuance on bitcoin is not new. Wei Dai has argued about this before already.

I would consider Bitcoin to have failed with regard to its monetary policy (because the policy causes high price volatility which imposes a heavy cost on its users, who have to either take undesirable risks or engage in costly hedging in order to use the currency). (This may have been partially my fault because when Satoshi wrote to me asking for comments on his draft paper, I never got back to him. Otherwise perhaps I could have dissuaded him (or them) from the "fixed supply of money" idea.)

Source https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/P9jggxRZTMJcjnaPw/bitcoins-are-not-digital-greenbacks

acquafredda

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Quote from: bbc.reporter on February 18, 2021, 10:20:56 PM

Quote from: acquafredda on February 18, 2021, 01:09:00 PM

Quote from: bbc.reporter on February 18, 2021, 12:51:36 AM

Quote from: acquafredda on February 17, 2021, 12:39:20 PM

78% of bitcoin that do not go on sale it is a LOT! The potential supply is very low if those figures are correct. We all know that at some point daddy btc will cool down a bit and to avoid troubles a small stop loss could be put in place as a small insurance cover.

It can be presently argued that bitcoin’s issuance has become something similar to some premined altcoins.

Why do you say that? I do not think so and I would never make such a comparison

There is a big portion of bitcoin holders who saw this coming before others and I see no problem in the fact they were able to concentrate some insane amounts of btc. I really do not get your point.

I am only saying that the issuance is beginning to look similar to premined altcoins if much of the coins are held by the whales with the biggest wallets. Are you implying that a large concentration of the coins towards the rich is okay for a healthy ecosystem?

Not implying anything here but I would never compare these two situations. I do not care if more and more bitcoins are in the hands of few entities as the dynamics of the bitcoin market has always shown a maturity never seen in any other altcoin premined shit. So please, before the warriors come for good, never compare bitcoin to some premined coin.

bbc.reporter

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Quote from: acquafredda on February 18, 2021, 01:09:00 PM

Quote from: bbc.reporter on February 18, 2021, 12:51:36 AM

Quote from: acquafredda on February 17, 2021, 12:39:20 PM

78% of bitcoin that do not go on sale it is a LOT! The potential supply is very low if those figures are correct. We all know that at some point daddy btc will cool down a bit and to avoid troubles a small stop loss could be put in place as a small insurance cover.

It can be presently argued that bitcoin’s issuance has become something similar to some premined altcoins.

Why do you say that? I do not think so and I would never make such a comparison

There is a big portion of bitcoin holders who saw this coming before others and I see no problem in the fact they were able to concentrate some insane amounts of btc. I really do not get your point.

I am only saying that the issuance is beginning to look similar to premined altcoins if much of the coins are held by the whales with the biggest wallets. Are you implying that a large concentration of the coins towards the rich is okay for a healthy ecosystem?

stomachgrowls

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Quote from: Streets 2.0 on February 17, 2021, 03:55:21 PM

"Analysts Warn" Great article start!

But my question is when, with such a "rally", we will see a "ceiling" and when we will bury ourselves in it, how quickly and to what price values will bitcoin fall? After all, this is the main question that worries many people today. Huh

This question had been a common one since from the start like asking out;

Whats the peak price?
Whats the bottom price?
When correction?
When it would pump?

Analyst, those so called Professional investors etc. would commonly have those kind of sentiments.Well, this is a free market, you can
tell all of the things you do like and some of them turns out to be unrealistic.So this is why im not really that much of interested
on any words that i do hear out about price sustainability and other things connected to it.

acquafredda

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Quote from: bbc.reporter on February 18, 2021, 12:51:36 AM

Quote from: acquafredda on February 17, 2021, 12:39:20 PM

78% of bitcoin that do not go on sale it is a LOT! The potential supply is very low if those figures are correct. We all know that at some point daddy btc will cool down a bit and to avoid troubles a small stop loss could be put in place as a small insurance cover.

It can be presently argued that bitcoin’s issuance has become something similar to some premined altcoins.

Why do you say that? I do not think so and I would never make such a comparison

There is a big portion of bitcoin holders who saw this coming before others and I see no problem in the fact they were able to concentrate some insane amounts of btc. I really do not get your point.

Xavofat

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Did you see that ludicrous display last night?

Since the block reward halves every 210,000 blocks (~4 years) half of all Bitcoins that will ever be mined were mined by around the start of 2013, at which point the price was as low as $15. It's no wonder, therefore, that a large proportion of Bitcoins are either lost or not in circulation. Where this becomes a problem is if just a small percentage of these early miners begin to unload coins, the price will fall significantly. I expect that many of them, rather than having coins which will just never enter circulation as the article implies, are biding their time and selling a bit at a time, which will increase the supply alongside the million or so new coins that will also enter the market before the next halving.

I definitely disagree with the 78% figure because a significant amount of BTC is being held by people who are waiting for ideal times and by exchange cold wallets.

Lucius

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I don't know how they got this 78%, but it seems too much to me no matter how they calculated that percentage. Even if one assumes that say 25% of BTC has been lost because they haven’t moved x years, the question arises as to how it is determined that as much as 50% of BTC is not for sale? Did they do some kind of survey asking people if they would sell their BTC - or did they just say that probably half of those who own it don't want to sell it?

It seems to me that such statements only add extra oil to the FOMO flame, and have no solid basis.

bbc.reporter

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Quote from: acquafredda on February 17, 2021, 12:39:20 PM

78% of bitcoin that do not go on sale it is a LOT! The potential supply is very low if those figures are correct. We all know that at some point daddy btc will cool down a bit and to avoid troubles a small stop loss could be put in place as a small insurance cover.

Agreed and we should be careful because this brings another argument. Bitcoin’s market capitalization might not matter anymore with 78% of coins not in circulation but only stored with most coins held by whales with large wallets. It can be presently argued that bitcoin’s issuance has become something similar to some premined altcoins.

Oceat

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Quote from: Streets 2.0 on February 17, 2021, 03:55:21 PM

"Analysts Warn" Great article start!

But my question is when, with such a "rally", we will see a "ceiling" and when we will bury ourselves in it, how quickly and to what price values will bitcoin fall? After all, this is the main question that worries many people today. Huh

It's not the time that we have to worry about what is the bottom price since we are yet starting to see more coming from this bull market.
You should start to worry if Bitcoin suddenly fall but with the strong support from falling I doubt it would happen since Bitcoin price is just started yet.

Quote

Currently, around 78% of issued bitcoins are either lost or being held with very little intent to sell. This leaves less than 4 million bitcoins to be shared among future market entrants - including large institutional investors such as PayPal, Square, S&P 500 companies, and exchange traded funds, blockchain data provider Glassnode said.

And speculators are expecting to see more than $50k within this year plus if this 78% of Bitcoin is not on sale maybe we should expect more prices to be break.

Streets 2.0

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"Analysts Warn" Great article start!

But my question is when, with such a "rally", we will see a "ceiling" and when we will bury ourselves in it, how quickly and to what price values will bitcoin fall? After all, this is the main question that worries many people today. Huh

acquafredda

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Quote

Bitcoin soared to yet another record high on Wednesday, a day after the virtual currency vaulted to the $50,000 hurdle, even as analysts warned against the sustainability of such prices amid elevated volatility.

The world's biggest digital currency, which has a market capitalization of over $900 billion, hit a record $51,721.15, fueled by signs that it is winning acceptance among mainstream investors and companies, such as Tesla, Mastercard and BNY Mellon.

Bitcoin was last up 3.68% at $50,990.6.

https://finance.yahoo.com/news/bitcoins-record-price-unsustainable-without-094432605.html

To me this was the key insight

Quote

Currently, around 78% of issued bitcoins are either lost or being held with very little intent to sell. This leaves less than 4 million bitcoins to be shared among future market entrants - including large institutional investors such as PayPal, Square, S&P 500 companies, and exchange traded funds, blockchain data provider Glassnode said.

78% of bitcoin that do not go on sale it is a LOT! The potential supply is very low if those figures are correct. We all know that at some point daddy btc will cool down a bit and to avoid troubles a small stop loss could be put in place as a small insurance cover.

Topic: 2021-02-17 - yahoo! - BTC to new highs, analysts warn about price sustainability (Read 160 times)