Topic: [2022-01-06] Newsweek: Bitcoin hash rate affected by Kazakhstan internet outage (Read 336 times)
January 22, 2022, 11:54:31 AM
The events in Kazakhstan, I think, can even be indirectly considered as a factor in the decline that we have been observing in recent days. I think as soon as the situation there recovers, we will again see a stable "pre-crisis" level of production, and thus this will also become a stabilization factor. I would like to believe that this will happen quickly enough so that people do not have time to be disappointed in the cryptocurrency, which has just begun to give hope again for popularization and legalization in many countries.
January 10, 2022, 11:23:31 AM
So according to blockchain.com and their way to evaluate it, a new (daily) ATH has been reached, but my point was to show the discrepancy between the news from the Daily Mail and the reality, not to announce a record breaking.
Sorry but that's exactly what you did, you announced a record-breaking hashrate:
Quote
The Bitcoin hashrate has reached a new ATH
You looked at the 7-day average and took that as a record while that average comes from this: (switch to raw)
The average in those last 7 days was actually high because of the days of 1st and 2nd, as you can see there is clearly a downtrend from that record, so you're actually acknowledging that the hashrate is dropping from an ATH.
Data becomes reliable when you go over longer periods, that's why we have an adjustment in 2016 and not after 6 blocks.
). Then even if this ATH seems to be a spike, there is actually a decrease from the top. 
January 10, 2022, 10:50:43 AM
So according to blockchain.com and their way to evaluate it, a new (daily) ATH has been reached, but my point was to show the discrepancy between the news from the Daily Mail and the reality, not to announce a record breaking.
Sorry but that's exactly what you did, you announced a record-breaking hashrate:
Quote
The Bitcoin hashrate has reached a new ATH
You looked at the 7-day average and took that as a record while that average comes from this: (switch to raw)
The average in those last 7 days was actually high because of the days of 1st and 2nd, as you can see there is clearly a downtrend from that record, so you're actually acknowledging that the hashrate is dropping from an ATH.
Data becomes reliable when you go over longer periods, that's why we have an adjustment in 2016 and not after 6 blocks. January 10, 2022, 09:38:51 AM
The Bitcoin hashrate has reached a new ATH(183.056 ExaH/s) yesterday...
Daily hashrate depends on when you calculate the day starts, it is GMT, is it EST, so it's totally unreliable.
Besides, 183 Exa/s is not the record by any means, we had gone over 200 for a day back in April and on the 1st and 2nd this month.
The same thing for the difficulty, it's still not an ATH:
Current is 24,371,874,614,345 a bit below April which stands at 25,046,487,590,083
So according to blockchain.com and their way to evaluate it, a new (daily) ATH has been reached, but my point was to show the discrepancy between the news from the Daily Mail and the reality, not to announce a record breaking.
January 10, 2022, 09:34:45 AM
The Bitcoin hashrate has reached a new ATH(183.056 ExaH/s) yesterday...
Indeed, I've checked and we have higher hash rate than we had at ATH. And we keep having that for the last ~20 days excepting for a short time at New Year's eve.
And the newspapers over the world still take/translate/spread the news bitcoin hash rate was hit because of the problems in Kazakhstan.
And the price is still in the "fear" levels.
I start to wonder what news sources can actually be believed nowadays...
And on the same page. I don't know if you've been reading the latest news, but now they say:
Kazakhstan unrest: Internet returns to Almaty following a five day outage
Major Mining Pools’ Bitcoin Hashrate Nears Recovery as Kazakhstan’s Internet Is Partially Restored (what an interesting choice of words, LOL!)
January 10, 2022, 09:31:41 AM
Perhaps consistent hashrate wasn't there but I imagine even intermittent internet would be enough to broadcast blocks found? Or am I furthering my talking-out-of-ass? My contacts there do say internet's slowed down and in bursts, and mobile data appears less affected (if using the Russian-owned network) so app messaging is still possible just the regular large-media platforms load badly.
That sounds plausible. Perhaps miners were able to switch over to mobile hotspots or something.
or...
Edit:
There is one possibility. I remember blockchair saying that one of their explorers is down so bla bla bla data, etc, it could be that some pools had servers in Kazakhstan and those went down.
I know Viabtc had the miners servers for internation/russian/ middle east, so it might be that one of their servers went down and miners automatically switched, maybe to a pool that is not disclosing its current hahsrate.
I know Viabtc had the miners servers for internation/russian/ middle east, so it might be that one of their servers went down and miners automatically switched, maybe to a pool that is not disclosing its current hahsrate.
I noticed the blockchair message too. It makes sense that some pools might have endpoints in Kazakhstan, perhaps even special endpoints for large miners. So it could be something as simple as losing API communication (e.g. via HTTPS) with a pool endpoint that was still accepting shares and submitting blocks if port 8333 was not blocked by the internet "shutdown".
January 10, 2022, 09:20:18 AM
The (alleged) reason for the hash rate drop was that the internet was cut off, not that someone would physically attack the mining farms.
It's still quite interesting that the reported hashrate dropped (unlikely to be a coincidence since multiple pools reported it) but the total number of blocks didn't. Perhaps miners found a way around the outage but it's unclear why they wouldn't continue mining on the same pools. If I have time I'd have to double-check if the number of blocks found for each pool was affected and/or if there were other/unknown miners popping up.
It's still quite interesting that the reported hashrate dropped (unlikely to be a coincidence since multiple pools reported it) but the total number of blocks didn't. Perhaps miners found a way around the outage but it's unclear why they wouldn't continue mining on the same pools. If I have time I'd have to double-check if the number of blocks found for each pool was affected and/or if there were other/unknown miners popping up.
Ah right, pretty silly of me then to come to such a different conclusion when the title says it all. Ought to demerit myself.
Perhaps consistent hashrate wasn't there but I imagine even intermittent internet would be enough to broadcast blocks found? Or am I furthering my talking-out-of-ass? My contacts there do say internet's slowed down and in bursts, and mobile data appears less affected (if using the Russian-owned network) so app messaging is still possible just the regular large-media platforms load badly.
January 10, 2022, 09:15:52 AM
It's still quite interesting that the reported hashrate dropped (unlikely to be a coincidence since multiple pools reported it) but the total number of blocks didn't. Perhaps miners found a way around the outage but it's unclear why they wouldn't continue mining on the same pools. If I have time I'd have to double-check if the number of blocks found for each pool was affected and/or if there were other/unknown miners popping up.
There is one possibility. I remember blockchair saying that one of their explorers is down so bla bla bla data, etc, it could be that some pools had servers in Kazakhstan and those went down.
I know Viabtc had the miners servers for internation/russian/ middle east, so it might be that one of their servers went down and miners automatically switched, maybe to a pool that is not disclosing its current hahsrate.
It's a bit too late now but I should have checked the differences at that moment between the reported hashrate and the hashrate derived from the blocks found by pool.
"Unknown" is at 1.7% for the last 7 days, so now way even 10% had switched to a new pool not in the data.
The Bitcoin hashrate has reached a new ATH(183.056 ExaH/s) yesterday...
Daily hashrate depends on when you calculate the day starts, it is GMT, is it EST, so it's totally unreliable.
Besides, 183 Exa/s is not the record by any means, we had gone over 200 for a day back in April and on the 1st and 2nd this month.
The same thing for the difficulty, it's still not an ATH:
Current is 24,371,874,614,345 a bit below April which stands at 25,046,487,590,083
January 10, 2022, 09:00:36 AM
I have my own theory on why the hashrate wasn't actually affected by Kazakhstan internet shutdown. In such a country who do you think can afford mining on a large scale? Right, those who are in power, also their close friends and relatives. The Internet wasn't shut down for them. They simply kept mining while all the other people were deprived of the connection to the world. What applies to ordinary people does not apply to the elite. It's a common practice in such countries, and the only right response to that is a revolution.
January 10, 2022, 06:46:20 AM
It does make sense actually (that hashrate's not affected). The riots, damages, have all been in Almaty and all targeting the government installations. Big country, huge swathes of land, I explored myself a lot and only covered less than 2% of places!
The mining companies would be all outside those affected areas AND even if they were, wouldn't be the target of the activities. When you want the outside world to sympathise, and you want the ruling regime out, you don't go smashing their people.
The mining companies would be all outside those affected areas AND even if they were, wouldn't be the target of the activities. When you want the outside world to sympathise, and you want the ruling regime out, you don't go smashing their people.
The (alleged) reason for the hash rate drop was that the internet was cut off, not that someone would physically attack the mining farms.
It's still quite interesting that the reported hashrate dropped (unlikely to be a coincidence since multiple pools reported it) but the total number of blocks didn't. Perhaps miners found a way around the outage but it's unclear why they wouldn't continue mining on the same pools. If I have time I'd have to double-check if the number of blocks found for each pool was affected and/or if there were other/unknown miners popping up.
January 10, 2022, 05:30:09 AM
It does make sense actually (that hashrate's not affected). The riots, damages, have all been in Almaty and all targeting the government installations. Big country, huge swathes of land, I explored myself a lot and only covered less than 2% of places!
The mining companies would be all outside those affected areas AND even if they were, wouldn't be the target of the activities. When you want the outside world to sympathise, and you want the ruling regime out, you don't go smashing their people.
The mining companies would be all outside those affected areas AND even if they were, wouldn't be the target of the activities. When you want the outside world to sympathise, and you want the ruling regime out, you don't go smashing their people.
January 09, 2022, 04:06:04 PM
The Daily Mail even claimed yesterday 18% of the global hashrate has vanished and that's the reason why Bitcoin price had dropped.
Actually it's just some fake news from mainstream medias which don't check seriously the news/rumors they hear before publishing them.
Actually it's just some fake news from mainstream medias which don't check seriously the news/rumors they hear before publishing them.
January 07, 2022, 08:26:49 PM
@stompix. It was not retail investors that dumped on bitcoin. There as a whale on FTX who was trying to cause a liquidity cascade. It was speculated to be Sam Trabucco, the CEO of Alameda Research, however he denied this. The other whale speculated was the other Sam, the CEO and founder of FTX hehehe. I would be shaking my head if retail investors moved the market like this.
In any case, a miner from Kazakhstan shared an update.
I receive a lot of enquiries from journalists to talk about protests and bitcoin mining in Kazakhstan . I am short of time and internet access right now. So let me make a thread, where I will try to answer most of the popular questions.
Main problems for miners is blocked internet. Government tries to control communications and allows internet connection for couple hours during the day. After everything settle down, internet recovered, miners should be alright. Hope it doesn’t take long time.
Mostly riots are in south of the country, whereas mining is concentrated in central and north part. It is quite safe situation for mining locations and facilities.
There is still power rationing cases. During peak hours electricity supply is limited, usually between 6 and 11 pm. After winter season ends stability of supply should be better, because of less consumption from house holds.
Kazakhstan will be mining harbour in long term. There is a huge potential for building new power generation. Both traditional energy sources and renewables. As long as country has political stability and can attract foreign capital.
Kazakhstan’s political stability is important for Russia, China and United States. Government realiezed that new political and economic reforms are needed. So I’m quite optimistic about future of the country.
Source https://mobile.twitter.com/didar_bekbau/status/1479442780019691520?s=12
In any case, a miner from Kazakhstan shared an update.
I receive a lot of enquiries from journalists to talk about protests and bitcoin mining in Kazakhstan . I am short of time and internet access right now. So let me make a thread, where I will try to answer most of the popular questions.
Main problems for miners is blocked internet. Government tries to control communications and allows internet connection for couple hours during the day. After everything settle down, internet recovered, miners should be alright. Hope it doesn’t take long time.
Mostly riots are in south of the country, whereas mining is concentrated in central and north part. It is quite safe situation for mining locations and facilities.
There is still power rationing cases. During peak hours electricity supply is limited, usually between 6 and 11 pm. After winter season ends stability of supply should be better, because of less consumption from house holds.
Kazakhstan will be mining harbour in long term. There is a huge potential for building new power generation. Both traditional energy sources and renewables. As long as country has political stability and can attract foreign capital.
Kazakhstan’s political stability is important for Russia, China and United States. Government realiezed that new political and economic reforms are needed. So I’m quite optimistic about future of the country.
Source https://mobile.twitter.com/didar_bekbau/status/1479442780019691520?s=12
January 07, 2022, 09:56:14 AM
I don't see why is that a matter of concern. We both know that most people are in for the money, not for the tech, nor for the freedom it is supposed to bring.
I know that far too well for my own comfort but while I can overlook some stupid things that trigger sales and decrease in value this one is one so stupid it really pisses me off. So bitcoin is supposed to be a tool to allow to transact without the need for a 3rd party, something meant for situations when there is a thing going on like Afghanistan or Hong Kong protest or now Kazakhstan.
Now fast forward, what we have here, some morons on the other side of the globe thought that the blackout in Kazakhstan was another reason to dump, thus hammering the finances of exactly the people who couldn't sell on the international markets but could use to circumvent an eventual banking blockade. So the actual potential users in a clear case of bitcoin utility were the ones feeling the dump made by poeple judging the situation in their country from far away sitting in a comfy chair in front of a laptop.
I might see this in a bad light, but to me, it's simply stupid.
Back on topic, the pace is 101.3% now, another apocalypse averted. Lucky us!
January 07, 2022, 03:24:04 AM
I have tried to begin a discussion but everyone appears to be avoiding it hehe.
There are plenty of traders who are making money from shorting Bitcoin (Ratimov has a nice topic about it, you can search for it). But that doesn't mean anything malicious and spreading FUD is another pretty far away step.
And about avoiding that there is simpler than you'd imagine: you've posted on pages 6-7. Most of those posting so far away in that kind of topics don't care about having a discussion, they care only about their post count. Even more, they don't read the posts, they simply answer to OP, no matter how old/obsolete that may be, no matter if what they write was said 100 times in that topic.
January 07, 2022, 12:16:57 AM
I don't understand what (or who) is behind all these apocalyptic news on Kazakhstan and bitcoin. I mean "network blackout"? Inside Kazakhstan, yes, but the rest of the world barely felt it.
The hash rate doesn't look bad at all. And for those who don't look at bitinfocharts or similar, just look at mempool.space's predicted difficulty adjustment: almost zero.
For now all I can tell is that something's very fishy about all those news. Maybe I'm wrong, but for now it looks like somebody wants badly bitcoiners get panicked and sell.
The hash rate doesn't look bad at all. And for those who don't look at bitinfocharts or similar, just look at mempool.space's predicted difficulty adjustment: almost zero.
For now all I can tell is that something's very fishy about all those news. Maybe I'm wrong, but for now it looks like somebody wants badly bitcoiners get panicked and sell.
Agreed, -12% in hashrate was barely felt. If there was no news about it, would we have felt any delays in block confirmations? I reckon we might never notice anything. Other miners will turn on their idle miners if the chance for profitability arrives.
However, there is someone who is speculated to be dumping bitcoin to cause a liquidity cascade. I have tried to begin a discussion but everyone appears to be avoiding it hehe.
https://bitcointalksearch.org/topic/m.58903843
https://bitcointalksearch.org/topic/m.58913221
January 06, 2022, 11:46:27 AM
To be honest, I am more concerned with the fact that some poeple are actually putting the blame for the price drop on a blackout move made by a totalitarian government, bitcoin should be a tool to bypass this thing, right? Why should it drop because of it?
Why would censorship affect it?
Why would censorship affect it?
I don't see why is that a matter of concern. We both know that most people are in for the money, not for the tech, nor for the freedom it is supposed to bring.
And then it's obvious that all they care about is their pockets. And many just don't look farther than some weeks back, hence for them the market also looks apocalyptic and the smallest snowball was bound to start an avalanche.
I feel it's indeed a "wait and see" moment than jumping to conclusions.
January 06, 2022, 11:39:37 AM
So it looks like some large pools were getting less hashrate. Let's give it another day or two and see if there is a real dip in the number of blocks mined.
Probably the best, wait and see.
I see two pools spiking just two hours after so it might be possible some had servers there and miners from outside the country were also cut, another repeat of the Great Firewall episode back in December?
I don't understand what (or who) is behind all these apocalyptic news on Kazakhstan and bitcoin.
When there is no news you have to make the news.
Otherwise, for some, it's the unemployment office.
The hash rate doesn't look bad at all. And for those who don't look at bitinfocharts or similar, just look at mempool.space's predicted difficulty adjustment: almost zero.
One tiny thing.
The period is almost over, the adjustment will happen on Saturday, so even if we had a 10% drop in the last 3 days, it would mean just -2.14%, we had a positive +0.6% before so a zero adjustment could mean a 3% drop in those days.
Of course, nothing apocalyptic, adding the price drop that turned an s9 mining at 10 cents into a useless machine makes it even less newsworthy.
To be honest, I am more concerned with the fact that some poeple are actually putting the blame for the price drop on a blackout move made by a totalitarian government, bitcoin should be a tool to bypass this thing, right? Why should it drop because of it?
Why would censorship affect it?
January 06, 2022, 11:03:47 AM
I don't understand what (or who) is behind all these apocalyptic news on Kazakhstan and bitcoin. I mean "network blackout"? Inside Kazakhstan, yes, but the rest of the world barely felt it.
The hash rate doesn't look bad at all. And for those who don't look at bitinfocharts or similar, just look at mempool.space's predicted difficulty adjustment: almost zero.
For now all I can tell is that something's very fishy about all those news. Maybe I'm wrong, but for now it looks like somebody wants badly bitcoiners get panicked and sell.
The hash rate doesn't look bad at all. And for those who don't look at bitinfocharts or similar, just look at mempool.space's predicted difficulty adjustment: almost zero.
For now all I can tell is that something's very fishy about all those news. Maybe I'm wrong, but for now it looks like somebody wants badly bitcoiners get panicked and sell.
January 06, 2022, 10:06:05 AM
But somehow both miss the 12% drop that was supposed to have happened Wednesday (the 5th). 
Yeah you're right, we've been steadily doing 145-146 blocks per day for the last week.
I'm quite sure some of them have managed to get well under those rates even in Kazakhstan
I wouldn't be surprised if some Kazakh miners (particularly the "grey" ones) practice the ancient Soviet art of bypassing the meter.
Edit - here is where the "12% drop" info originated: https://twitter.com/lawmaster/status/1478764142957846531
Also https://btc.com/btc/insights-pools
So it looks like some large pools were getting less hashrate. Let's give it another day or two and see if there is a real dip in the number of blocks mined.
January 06, 2022, 09:55:38 AM
If you're wondering why Bitcoin miners have remained in Kazakhstan throughout government crackdowns and energy blackouts:
There is another thing, they have remained because they have nowhere left to go, there aren't that many places left with cheap electricity and in some cases the relocation costs simply are not justified, so it's clinging to it till it lasts then sell the gear and that's it.
Oh, and that 4.2 cents per kWh price tag is not that impressive, Mara claims 2.8 cents, and Riot (I think?) 3.2 at one of the facilities, miners in Ordos were paying under 2 cents back when mining was still done with cheap dirt coal energy, not even mentioning Sichuan.
I'm quite sure some of them have managed to get well under those rates even in Kazakhstan
January 06, 2022, 09:33:15 AM
Edit: see stompix's post below, the 12% drop might be questionable.
https://www.newsweek.com/bitcoin-price-down-federal-reserve-interest-rates-kazakhstan-bitcoin-mining-1666203
Part of the article is about the price drop due to fed minutes but that's already been discussed all over the Speculation board etc. The second part of the article seems more interesting:
This comes after China banned Bitcoin mining last year and some of that hash power moved to the neighboring Kazakhstan but it wasn't a particularly smooth process. Quote from another article about a month ago:
Two months ago:
If you're wondering why Bitcoin miners have remained in Kazakhstan throughout government crackdowns and energy blackouts:
https://www.globalpetrolprices.com/Kazakhstan/
https://www.newsweek.com/bitcoin-price-down-federal-reserve-interest-rates-kazakhstan-bitcoin-mining-1666203
Part of the article is about the price drop due to fed minutes but that's already been discussed all over the Speculation board etc. The second part of the article seems more interesting:
Quote
Meanwhile, Bitcoin mining—the process by which new Bitcoins are created—has been affected this week by a large internet shutdown in the central Asian country of Kazakhstan.
The network blackout came amid political turmoil and protests. For Bitcoin, this meant that one of the world's biggest mining communities took a hit.
It is difficult to know exactly how much of all the world's Bitcoins are mined in Kazakhstan, Fortune reported, but Larry Cermak, a researcher at cryptocurrency news site The Block, tweeted on Wednesday that there was a 12 percent drop in Bitcoin's "hash rate," which is a measure of how many miners are involved in the Bitcoin network at a given time.
The network blackout came amid political turmoil and protests. For Bitcoin, this meant that one of the world's biggest mining communities took a hit.
It is difficult to know exactly how much of all the world's Bitcoins are mined in Kazakhstan, Fortune reported, but Larry Cermak, a researcher at cryptocurrency news site The Block, tweeted on Wednesday that there was a 12 percent drop in Bitcoin's "hash rate," which is a measure of how many miners are involved in the Bitcoin network at a given time.
This comes after China banned Bitcoin mining last year and some of that hash power moved to the neighboring Kazakhstan but it wasn't a particularly smooth process. Quote from another article about a month ago:
In October, Kazakhstan faced a shortfall of electricity after the country’s largest power station had to shut two units for maintenance with a combined capacity of 1,000 megawatts, roughly 5% of the country’s power supply. At the same time, electricity demand was surging. In the first nine months of the year, the country experienced additional power use during peak hours equivalent to the Almaty region, the most populous part of the country. Much of that came from the miners.
There are about 50 registered cryptocurrency mining data centers; as of October, they were consuming almost 700 megawatts of power. There are also unregistered operations, known as gray miners, that needed an additional 250 megawatts, the Energy Ministry said.
Electric grids require a precise balance between demand and supply. With so much generation unavailable, Kazakhstan began to target the miners to prevent the power grid from suffering blackouts.
Kazakhstan's energy ministry considered issuing an order to restrict power consumption by new cryptocurrency miners, but after public discussion in October dropped the plan. It amended existing legislation instead, allowing grid operator Kegoc to limit or reduce power supply to digital miners in the event of a power deficit and to avoid emergency situations.
There are about 50 registered cryptocurrency mining data centers; as of October, they were consuming almost 700 megawatts of power. There are also unregistered operations, known as gray miners, that needed an additional 250 megawatts, the Energy Ministry said.
Electric grids require a precise balance between demand and supply. With so much generation unavailable, Kazakhstan began to target the miners to prevent the power grid from suffering blackouts.
Kazakhstan's energy ministry considered issuing an order to restrict power consumption by new cryptocurrency miners, but after public discussion in October dropped the plan. It amended existing legislation instead, allowing grid operator Kegoc to limit or reduce power supply to digital miners in the event of a power deficit and to avoid emergency situations.
Two months ago:
Quote from: https://www.reuters.com/business/energy/crypto-boom-strains-kazakhstans-coal-powered-energy-grid-2021-11-10/
The Kazakh government plans to crack down first on unregistered "grey" miners who it estimates might be consuming twice as much power as the "white" or officially registered ones.
"I think we will have the directive (limiting power to unregistered miners) issued before the end of this year, because this issue cannot be delayed any longer," Deputy Energy Minister Murat Zhurebekov said this month.
He did not explain how authorities planned to locate "grey" miners, whose farms are often hidden in basements or abandoned factories. But sources say their heat signatures could be detected by satellites.
"I think we will have the directive (limiting power to unregistered miners) issued before the end of this year, because this issue cannot be delayed any longer," Deputy Energy Minister Murat Zhurebekov said this month.
He did not explain how authorities planned to locate "grey" miners, whose farms are often hidden in basements or abandoned factories. But sources say their heat signatures could be detected by satellites.
If you're wondering why Bitcoin miners have remained in Kazakhstan throughout government crackdowns and energy blackouts:
https://www.globalpetrolprices.com/Kazakhstan/
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