Nope that is not happening without extreme buying which only happens during a supercycle where most media outlet is covering the skyrocketing price of cryptocurrencies, thus inciting people to buy more.
ETFs aren't going to bring it anywhere close to that level by themselves - that's what people thought would happen last time (institutions adoption bitcoin) but in reality it was only a couple of custodians creating these services for other people to use that (among other things) drove traders to make extreme purchases and make a short price spike last time around.
I disagree a little. :-)
The halving will probably be a big deal as it has been other years. It isn't solely about demand, but supply too. As the supply of coins that are on the market decreases (people are buying to hold, not trade), let alone the decrease in new coins available (the halving), if demand remains constant let alone has any increase, the price increases. Prices are set at the margin so even an ETF that is only slightly successful will increase the price with less supply on the market and higher demand.
And just to add a little spice to this, Blackrock - the highest profile ETC applicant is the
worlds largest investment company.
BlackRock is the world's largest asset manager, with US$8.59 trillion in assets under
management as of December 31, 2022.
https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/BlackRock#:~:text=In%202021%2C%20BlackRock%20managed%20over,nominal%20%2425.347%20trillion%20in%202022).
Thats a lot of people with a lot of investing in all sorts of assets, adding a Bitcoin ETF
is guaranteed to increase the demand from people who dont know anything about it,
how it works and how to store it, they will know its benefits and where it is going
in the future and they are going to want their favourite and trusted asset managers to
sort it for them.
That coupled with the halving could be "a perfect storm" - there is that word again
"could"
