Topic: [2024-09-05] Bitcoin Halving Events No Longer Drive BTC Price, Report Says (Read 136 times)

Here it is necessary to take into account that each cycle after halving has its own peculiarities due to the fact that other peculiar events are happening in the world that inevitably affect the cryptocurrency market. This time we witnessed a good increase in prices on the eve of halving and this slightly disrupted the usual rhythm for such an event. In addition, it is too early to say that halving will no longer affect this market in terms of price. Usually, prices begin to rise sharply somewhere around 8-12 months after halving. That is, its influence may occur by the end of this year, at the beginning of next year.

New supply if some of it has to be sold by miners to finance operations definitely impacts the price.  Of course with a higher fiat price, fewer need to be sold which further decreases new supply available on the market.  Back when you could CPU or GPU mine, many miners could easily finance a few hundred dollars extra a month without having to sell.  Now, as the size of the block reward decreases and the industrial scale miners have huge costs, that has changed.

Halvings, ETFs, etc are not all or nothing things that impact the fiat price, they all combine on the supply and demand curve to reach the market price. 

I have been saying this for years... you have to look at the bigger picture when you analyze the full impact of the price.. before and after the Halving. What other significant events happened before or after the Halving... that also impacted the price during that period.

Most Bitcoin traders and hoarders also know that the impact of the Halving are priced into it, way before the actual event happens, because the media hype will start weeks in advance.

Also, whatever impact it has.... was watered down by the many times it happened before... so people do not react to it as much, as they did with the early Halving events we had in the early days. 

I agree with that, this halving narrative was mostly used to convince newcomers IMO. But that's a scheduled event priced way before it happens actually, and it doesn't reduce BTC circulating supply, it's not a burn event, it just reduces the quantity of new BTC issued each hour, each 10 minutes precisely but not the total supply neither the circulating one. That's why I have always been very cautious with this narrative TBH. What pushs BTC price is mainly overall adoption actually and we need a new cycle initiated by something new like CBDC to reach higher prices IMO.

We are only about 4-5 months past the halving.  In the past the halving took some time to impact fiat prices.  Cutting the new supply in half while keeping demand constant or higher obviously will cause the price to increase.  The question is whether other events will swamp that impact or mask it.  History doesn't guarantee it will happen, but a basic supply/demand curve gives credence to the argument that it easily could happen.

This is too early for conclusion by saying bitcoin halving effect does not drive bitcoin price anymore. Many people invested already because of United States bitcoin ETF which could have been the reason for what happened. Also we are still expecting bull run in 2025 but we are still in 2024.

These people should not confuse people. The halving effect is not only used to speculate when the price of bitcoin will increase but also to speculate when the price will decrease. If another significant bear market starts in 2026, they should not be surprised. But they should let people know that the probability that would happen is high.

Bitcoin Halving Events No Longer Drive BTC Price, Report Says

Outlier Ventures’ new report claims the four-year Bitcoin halving cycle “is dead,” arguing that halving events no longer significantly impact bitcoin’s price due to a maturing crypto market. The report suggests the influence of halvings diminished after 2016, with recent price movements driven more by Bitcoin ETFs and macroeconomic factors, such as the post-Covid capital injection in 2020, rather than the halvings.

Report Claims Bitcoin Halving’s Influence on Prices Is Overestimated

Outlier Ventures, a web3 accelerator, released its latest Token Trendlines report on Tuesday, claiming that “the four-year cycle is dead” based on an analysis of bitcoin price movements since the 2024 halving.

Written by Jasper De Maere, the firm’s Research Lead, the report asserts that the impact of bitcoin’s halving events has significantly diminished over time. He wrote:


The analysis argues that the traditional four-year cycle is no longer a relevant factor for predicting price trends as the cryptocurrency market matures.

Strategically, De Maere challenges the assumption that the halving continues to play a significant role in bitcoin’s price action. “The strong BTC and crypto market performance following the 2020 halving is coincidence, as the 2020 halving occurred during a period of unprecedented global capital injection post-Covid, with the U.S. alone increasing its money supply (M2) by 25.3% that year,” he explained.

Furthermore, the report describes the notion that the four-year cycle still holds in 2024 as flawed, stating:


De Maere concluded: “While the halving may have some psychological effects, reminding bag holders about their dusty BTC wallets, it’s clear that its fundamental impact has become irrelevant … It’s time for founders and investors trying to time the market to focus on more significant macroeconomic drivers rather than relying on the four-year cycle.”

Source: https://news.bitcoin.com/bitcoin-halving-events-no-longer-drive-btc-price/