Bitcoin Halving Events No Longer Drive BTC Price, Report SaysOutlier Ventures’ new report claims the four-year Bitcoin halving cycle “is dead,” arguing that halving events no longer significantly impact bitcoin’s price due to a maturing crypto market. The report suggests the influence of halvings diminished after 2016, with recent price movements driven more by Bitcoin ETFs and macroeconomic factors, such as the post-Covid capital injection in 2020, rather than the halvings.Report Claims Bitcoin Halving’s Influence on Prices Is OverestimatedOutlier Ventures, a web3 accelerator, released its latest Token Trendlines report on Tuesday, claiming that “the four-year cycle is dead” based on an analysis of bitcoin price movements since the 2024 halving.
Written by Jasper De Maere, the firm’s Research Lead, the report asserts that the impact of bitcoin’s halving events has significantly diminished over time. He wrote:
We believe that 2016 was the last time the halving had a significant, fundamental impact on BTC price action. Since then, the size of the miners’ BTC block reward has become negligible in the context of a maturing and increasingly diversified crypto market.
The analysis argues that the traditional four-year cycle is no longer a relevant factor for predicting price trends as the cryptocurrency market matures.
Strategically, De Maere challenges the assumption that the halving continues to play a significant role in bitcoin’s price action. “The strong BTC and crypto market performance following the 2020 halving is coincidence, as the 2020 halving occurred during a period of unprecedented global capital injection post-Covid, with the U.S. alone increasing its money supply (M2) by 25.3% that year,” he explained.
Furthermore, the report describes the notion that the four-year cycle still holds in 2024 as flawed, stating:
The BTC ETF approval is a demand-driven catalyst, while the halving is a supply-driven catalyst, making them not mutually exclusive
De Maere concluded: “While the halving may have some psychological effects, reminding bag holders about their dusty BTC wallets, it’s clear that its fundamental impact has become irrelevant … It’s time for founders and investors trying to time the market to focus on more significant macroeconomic drivers rather than relying on the four-year cycle.”
Source: https://news.bitcoin.com/bitcoin-halving-events-no-longer-drive-btc-price/