Topic: 2024 Elliott Wave (Read 1490 times)

Yes, if its indeed a B-wave, at 2.236 extension (so far), it would probably be the largest Bitcoin has done, on a higher timeframe.

Most recent B-wave was from Dec 2023 to Jan 2024, and was almost 2.00 extension, albeit on a smaller timeframe...

A B-wave reaching a 2x extension, is on higher tf probably previously unseen in BTC. And, I would expect that that continues to be the case.

I doubt we will see $379K.  Every cycle has had diminishing returns.

Thanks, Steve! I truly appreciate your insights and expertise on EW Theory. While I’m not the biggest fan of TA, there’s something about EW Theory that just clicks with me for some reason!

Keep us updated when you have more information. This is one of two threads i always check!

As per the following chart, there are a number of potential Fibonacci-based zones where there could be a potential interim top, prior to $114,000.

Depending upon the count, whether either impulsive or corrective, there could be a pullback of either -20% or -40% respectively.

As for the grand top, unknown yet, will need more waves to unfold to begin estimating.
The $379,000 figure is assuming PRIMARY[5] equals PRIMARY[3] wave; however, PRIMARY[5] could truncate or extend.

Thanks for the quick reply...

I was more wondering how you would see the entire EW cycle play out.... will we pull back from 114k or do we keep marching up and how far, are you still projecting a top of 379k for this cycle?

If $114,000 is exceeded, then it would suggest the most popular EW count, i.e. wave-3 uptrend has been underway ever since the low of 05-AUG-2024.

Personally, would be surprised with this count since the wave-2 downtrend was quite shallow, and the beginnings of the supposed wave-3 uptrend is corrective waves, so still have doubts.

How would it play out if that was the case... considering we are 10K away from that number.

Your B wave seems more likely an impulse 

The maximum upside for an Irregular B-wave is 2.618 times the length of A-wave.

So, beyond $114,000 would eliminate the B-wave scenarios.

is there any price movement that would invalidate the above pull back? Could it have already taken place?

Personally, still think one of the aforementioned scenarios is still in play; hence, expecting a pullback to 50K-60K zone.

Not an expert. Not advice.

FYMO has been building in me for 2 weeks now, was hoping to catch this wave/ whale but now I am fearing a retracement as per any of the 3 scenarios you mentioned.

Appreciate I am not asking for advice, but need to hear it from experts....so whats the plan?

Yes, the scenarios are quite bold, and quite complex, and are probably the least expected scenarios in EW circles.

The average pullback zone across all three counts is around 50K.

Personally, would hope neither of the counts develop since there has been plentiful "election euphoria" buying between 80K-90K, in anticipation of mythical 100K. So, a 'crash' to 50K could be the largest ETF and long liquidation event in Bitcoin history perhaps..?

If either of the counts do unfold, it would likely be a global risk-off news event across all assets (i.e. equities and commodities), perhaps elapsing 1-2 months to bottom.

I like your boldness to predict a deep dip when nobody expects it anymore

The "running flat" scenario is actually one I can imagine still to happen. The 59-60k area was quite important in the 2024 intermediate corrections: either the dips stopped there or it fell deeper than 57k mostly, and also in the recoveries it took some time to pass that area.

However I think the current price development is mostly news-driven. As far as I understand the Elliott wave theory, news are also a component to evaluate when analyzing in which wave we're in. The euphoria phases of 10+% like yesterday are even more typical for a wave 5. So I only expect such a dip to happen if some negative news loom and thus the sentiment isn't universally bullish anymore. For example, if in December there is no Fed interest rate cut, or if the Microsoft shareholders reject the company to purchase Bitcoins, or Trump makes disappointing announcements, then a panic + long liquidations could actually move the price into these areas again. But in this case I can imagine the scenario to play out similarly to the "running flat" option. If we fall lower than 49-50k, which is of course possible, I can imagine the market will not recover that fast and will probably take several months to return to the current level.

probably a simple correction that 2

Yes, we already discussed it a month ago.

https://bitcointalksearch.org/topic/m.64603777

The alternative bullish count would suggest wave-2 pullback bottomed on 05-AUG-2024, and wave-3 uptrend has been underway ever since.

However, the uptrend since the 05-AUG-2024 low to present high, thus far, appears corrective; hence considering it as an Irregular B-wave.

Yes, we are probably in a B,
What I don't understand is why you don't consider an alternative bullish account.
There are almost always two possible scenarios,
and breaking through $74k is a very possible scenario.

Still appears to be a corrective B-wave, at all-time highs.

new ATH
maybe you still think about dips
because if there is a bullish count, there will always be an alternative bearish count

Wow!!
You keep insisting that BTC hasn't broken the resistance yet.

Don't you even see an alternative account with a minimal chance of it going to $100k already???

 

Yes, I know you said the last rise wasn't impulsive, but...

It appears this Elliott Wave count is also expecting a pullback, before resuming higher.

I didnt really understand about elliot wave but I know a guy that made script/indicator on tradingview and he is quite famous and here is the image using that script can you tell me more about it.



here is the link to the chart https://www.tradingview.com/chart/p4CswcCz/?symbol=BINANCE%3ABTCUSD

One of the most commonly misunderstood subjects is the interplay between "technicals" and "fundamentals". The mistake is thinking they aren't two sides of the same coin.

Wow, I applaud the OP for this technical analysis although one issue I have with EW is it mainly deals with technical but sudden market volatility fundamental news can change it's directions making me to lose counts several times. Identifying and labelling the waves can be confusing at times. Thanks to the OP.

MAR 2024 to AUG 2025 would be quite a long sideways fluctuation with eventual decline —it would make it one of the longest such sideways price action usually relegated to larger degree waves, hence probably unlikely.

As the much hyped bull run seems to fizzle, I am sharing one of my current most probable scenarios, that I would personally hate to happen:

We may be going to reach the bottom of wave 2 only around August 2025, in a Covid like crash. And then a new ATH, of about 300 K$, will come only in 2027.

Yes, that is possible, a truncated failed wave.

However, the subsequent uptrend wave after the supposed failed wave is appearing corrective at the moment.

It is clear that we have to wait for levels to be broken to confirm where we are going.

Could the fall from 25/Aug-6/Sep be a wave failure?
Would that be the explanation for the correction ending there, although I don't think I've seen wave failures in your counts.

The current uptrend starting from the low of 05-AUG-2024 to present, appears to be corrective waves at the moment.
Hence, guessing the following two scenarios, either of which eventually suggest a decline...

Thanks! I see that in your model you consider the "W" at the 53k dump before the 49k dump.

We can of course for now speculate that the development of the price after the 49k dump (your "a" bottom) may be the start of five impulsive waves:

- 1: wave up to 65k after the dump.
- 2: corrective wave down to 52.5k.
- 3: wave up to 67k, possibly extending higher if the 60k dump was only an intermediate correction. That's where we would be now.

So for the 5-wave pattern to form from this base, imo the following conditions would be needed:

- the wave 3 must go a bit higher without falling lower than 52.5k,
- the bottom of wave 4 must be above 65k (because an Elliott Wave 4 should not fall into wave 1 territory).
- and possibly: volume must pick up.

This would be however possibly a quite bearish outlook - it would be a wave 5 (according to my theory, alternatively it can be a wave 3) but it would not be sure if we can surpass the 100k in this cycle. It would be thus more mid-term bullish if your prediction was correct

Alternatively we could be still in wave 1, the important thing would be then to not see the sub-49k area again, but then it would take some time for this pattern to be confirmed.

Indeed, the 52.5 to 66k movement looks like a structure with five lower-degree waves. Much more than the movement from 49k to 65k which is comprised only from three lower-degree waves.

But how would the 49.5k to 65k movement fit into that picture? An "overshoot" inside the short-term bearish wave 2 (or 4)?

A set of five impulsive waves, in an uptrend, would be the first starting point to consider whether the downtrend is over; no need to wait for new all-time highs for such a consideration.

At this point, the waves still appear corrective, and so still expecting a decline to either 37K or 44K, current guesswork as follows...

I'm not an expert on Elliot, but the rise since 6/Sep ($52.5k) looks like an impulse,
and what it's doing since 27/Sep ($66.5k) could be its correction.

A new impulse would be confirmed if the price breaks above $66.5k

Thanks for the explanation. I have looked a bit into Elliott waves again and it seems you're correct, the "invalidation" of corrective waves doesn't occur in the same way than in the case of impulse waves.

The volume of the wave since the August low seems to be indeed lower than the last part of the previous bullish wave (late 2023 to March 2024), so that would fit for the rules for corrective waves, and also lower than the downtrend from March to August which could be described as a wave A like you proposed in your chart.

An alternative assumption could be however:

- Wave A: March to late April (73k - 56.5k)
- Wave B: late April to late May or early June (56.5k up to 72.5k)
- Wave C: early June to early August (56.5k down to 49k).

On a whole I think your subdivision follows Elliott wave rules more convincingly. So let's see if we indeed see a deeper dip still. From fundamentals' point of view I doubt it, despite of today's dump.

So it would be interesting what would, for you, be the event invalidating the "irregular B wave" theory, i.e. what josegines already asked. I think if we see prices close to 100k with as much or more volume as in March this should be the case, or not?

Corrective waves which develop new highs or new lows beyond a five wave impulse, are known as Irregular B-waves.
Markets can remain in an Irregular B-wave for quite some time, with considerable measure.

For example, here is the DJIA30 index, which has been in an Irregular B-wave since 17-APR-2024 to present, at all-time highs...

From my (limited) knowledge about Elliott waves, I guess a significant break out of the 49-73 area to the upside would invalidate the assumption about a "corrective" wave. AFAIK a corrective wave cannot not get significantly higher or lower than the last high or low (at the trend change).

However, we're still not there. 66.5k, the last high, is even still perfectly inside of the slightly bearish corridor which started in March. Its slope is so flat that we would only break out near 70k. And the final invalidation of the current short-term bear market would only occur if we surpassed the 73.5k significantly.

My own (non-TA) assumption is that the probability of >73.5 k is now slightly higher than a dump <49k. There are a lot of external factors just aligned which point to a more positive development, mainly the interest rate decreases by the Fed and the ECB, but also some emotional-psychologic factors: we can cite the assumption that October and November are bullish months for Bitcoin's price, for example, but also the relief that for example the MtGox dump was far lighter than some expected, or didn't exist at all) in this case would "overrule" any TA-based prediction.

Another factor pointing to the assumption that 49k was a local bottom is that altcoins have stabilized and are beginning to outperform Bitcoin in some cases. Altcoins are an indicator for retail investments.

An impulsive set of waves, signalling a new uptrend, will emerge before new all-time highs.
So far, no impulsive waves since the 14-MAR-2024 high.

but there will be a level from which the count is invalidated, 80k, 90k$...

Regardless of a new all-time high, the waves still appear corrective.
So, still expecting a decline to at least 44K zone.

From what level can we say that we are in a new impulse, that the correction is over?
surpassing ATH?

For both crypto and equity markets, the Elliott Wave structure of the 'crash' appears incomplete.
After the current bounce, expecting another leg lower, perhaps on even higher volume.

On Monday of the market crash, there was quite a bit of volume in BTC, consistent with a capitulation.
Do you take the volume into account?
Or, despite that high volume, do you think the price could make a lower low?
August and September are bad months for BTC, your last count would fit, but I have doubts because of that high volume.

Current rebound appears to be a corrective dead-cat bounce.

Expecting the MINOR-2 wave pullback to be a A(a-b-c)-B-C(a-b-c) structure, concluding at either 44K or 37K zone...

Congratulations!
Do you know if wave 2 is over, or if it can still fall further, up to $44k (50%)?

Yes, the COVID crash was very steep, but the daily/weekly/monthly candles managed to close above the 88.6% Fibonacci retracement level...

I'm not convinced about the 38.2% retracement being that important. In the last bull run without drastic external influences (I'm referring here to the "Covid crash" in 2020), which was the rally between 2015-2017, there were a few times when the price indeed retracted by a bit more than a third, but that were only flash crashes (e.g. the post-halving dip in 2016 from 750ish to 500ish, and the 1130ish to 780ish dip in January 2017 caused by the discussion about the allowance of Bitcoin futures contract at this moment - rally had started at $135 so it was in both cases probably less than a 38.2 % retracement).

The 53.5K dip was imo already close enough to that kind of retracement, and that the dip stopped before reaching the 51k level predicted by Fibonacci retracement hypothesis can be perfectly explained by the lowering volatility due to increased liquidity we've seen from 2016/17 to 2024.

As I already wrote before (to justify that I'm not thinking we're currently in a "minor 2" wave but in "minor 4" or even already in "minor 5" if the 53k dip was the low) I'm in general of the opinion that technical indicators like Elliott waves always have to be employed together with an interpretation of market sentiment. As the Elliott wave theory is justified by mass psychology effects, using it in a purely mathematical way could lead to wrong conclusions.

Fibonacci levels are even more difficult to justify scientifically, however I'm also interpreting them as mass psychology phenomenons: it's the points approximately where some traders who sold near the top / bought near the bottom are likely to close positions because they may have achieved their goal with that trade. But if you interpret them in this way, then it loses importance if the retracement was of 35% or 40% or 38.2%.

Conclusion: It could still go down to <51k, but I think the probability is quite low.

Elliott Waves are often related to each other in Fibonacci relationships; see here:
https://www.elliottwave.com/waveopedia/fibonacci-relationships/

From the 21-NOV-2022 low to 14-MAR-2024 high, a five wave impulsive structure appears to be complete —the first wave of the bull market leg.

Typically, this first leg is retraced a Fibonacci 38.2% which is around 51K.

For those who do not understand why and how that works, could you explain to us why do you expect a drop to 51k? Or even more? I am looking at the chart, and the weekly moving average seems fine, and the indicators that I check, or even something as simple as fear/greed index type of stuff, all of them shows a potential to grow a lot more. That's something more realistic, reaching to 70k from here, wouldn't be that hard, we are talking about 5% or so, that would be very likely and happens even daily, wouldn't be a shock to anyone.

What you are talking about is a drop beyond 20%, and I do not think that it would be possible at this point, and I am not just saying that because of my gut feeling, which also says that it won't happen, but I am putting this based on EMA and weekly, even BB says so, I feel like it doesn't really look like something that could be happening. But I have never used Elliot Wave before, so I would like to learn, what that means, how that works, and how is that showing something closer to 51k, which is such a huge drop. If you could explain that, it would be lovely so that we would be able to check it ourselves as well whenever we want to instead of bothering you.

Will be happy to get just a few months right in 2024

It is increasingly clear that we need an Elliot 2025 to know how this bullrun ends

Expecting 51K at the very least, which is a Fibonacci 38.2% retracement of the entire bull market since the NOV-2022 low.
If there is a new all-time high before the pullback, then the Fibonacci levels will change.

Does it have to be below $54k?
Wouldn't there be any possibility that this new drop would reach above 54k?
a wave failure or something that could fit

Very Thanks!!

The bounce that started from the 05-JUL-2024 low, still appears to be corrective.
So, still expecting a pullback to either the 51K or 44K zones...

I imagine that wave 2 will have changed a little,

That is to say, we may still be within it, but it may not go as far down.

I also add that in the July-August summers BTC does not usually move much, except the year after the halving, in which it is affected by being in full bullrun.

That is, I don't think August will break $75k in August, so BTC will continue to correct in some way, it remains to be seen if it will just consume time, or at some point it will lose $54k

What I would like is to know how to identify the new ATH, so I will continue here to get some clue.

Will it arrive this year or next?

I think the categorization of this bearish wave as "Minor 2" is still wrong. For me, "minor 2" was the 32k-25k pullback in 2023 as I wrote above.

So basically @OP, even if you're short-term bearish, in my opinion you're still too mid-term bullish ("Minor 2" would mean basically that wer'e still in a beginning bull market.)

Of course the 32-25k pullback doesn't look that more bearish than the "minute" pullbacks we've seen in other occasions (48k -> 38k for example).

But Elliott waves in my opinion are not purely mathematical theories, but ways to try to condense mass psychology phenomenons into a chart pattern. And that's basically what I think it's wrong: The current market sentiment isn't at all looking like we just escaped a long crypto winter. Instead, the euphoria near the ATH in March was clearly already a sign of a fully developed bull market, albeit very likely not comparable to the "new paradigm" sentiment near a cycle top.

This is why I still think we're in a "minor 4" wave. I also don't rule out the bottom of this wave is already in, above all taking into account that news like the MtGox payout generally generate most fear when they are announced, and when they are already occurring (like now), the panic is reduced every day. But of course lower lows are still possible in this wave. 51k would indeed be a mark where I would expect support due to the relatively long sideways pattern in early 2024 in this region. Next mark for me would not be 44 but 48.5k (the "ETF local high" in January).

Correct, decline still not over yet. Expecting 51K zone at the very least.

then you think it hasn't finished falling, because the low was around 53k

An impulsive five-wave bounce, from either the 51K or 44K zone, ought to confirm MINOR-2 pullback is complete.
 

When will we know that MINOR 2 is over?  

Completely correct, and in fact I was favouring my model "2" until the 56.5k dip happened just for this reason.

However, while the pullback in January was significant regarding the "depth" of the correction, with over 20% loss, it was very short compared to the mid-2023 pullback (31->25k) and the current pullback (73-56.5). The January pullback lasted less than two weeks, while the other two, which I thus favour to be the 2 and 4 bearish waves were much longer (the current pullback will soon be 2 months long). We could thus explain the January pullback simply as a period of higher-than-normal volatility inside a minor pullback due to the ETF decisions.

But I don't rule out that model 2 is still the one to follow. Would be of course more bullish. If 56.5k was the bottom there are still chances that this model holds.

The model you're favouring, which is my item 3, is of course also not impossible. This would be basically equivalent to the "Supercycle" or "this time it's different" theory. But I have slight doubts about it. I also think I disagree that the peak of this wave would be the end of the uptrend since 2011. IMO such long cycles in the case of a novel asset like Bitcoin can only be evaluated taking into account the real adoption/success.

There is a wave, a pullback, from 11-JAN-2024 to 23-JAN-2024, a -21.50% decline, which your first option is overlooking perhaps ?

Your analysis of late March, where you predicted a deeper fall below 60k, was actually quite good (even it the dip got lower than your predicted 57-58k, but I believe this was mainly due to long liquidations and a mini-panic)

I am also quite a fan of Elliott waves because they can be explained well with mass psychology and with the "overbought"/"oversold" conditions.

For the current slightly bearish movement we're seeing since the March ATH of >73k, I think the most likely options are (in decreasing probability, from my subjective point of view):

1) a bearish wave 4 in a ~2-3-year bullish cycle with peak in late 2024 or early 2025. Wave 1 would have been, in this case, the movement in late 2022 to mid-2023 up to 32k. Wave 2 would have been the consolidation down to 25-26k, and Wave 3 then the whole way up to 73K. This means that after this wave 4 has bottomed, an "euphoria phase" with >100k could follow.
2) a correction inside a bullish wave 3, peak would be in early to mid 2025. This would be even more bullish, because then we could expect some more ATHs (perhaps up to 80-90k or even 100k) before wave 4 sets in and brings us again down to 55-70k or so. The likelihood of this scenario, in my opinion, has however lowered in favour of scenario 1 due to the relatively weak last weeks.
3) a bearish wave 2 in a 3-4-year bullish cycle, peak in late 2025 or even 2026. This would be the most bullish option, but I think it's relatively unlikely. Basically that would mean that everything from 15.5k up to 73k was a Wave 1. And in my opinion, taking into account the attention levels and psychologic sentiment (Google Trends, Greed & Fear etc.) we have already advanced more than this stage. The only argument in favour of that scenario is tha none of the corrections we've seen in this bull market before the current wave was really important enough to be considered a "wave". In the short term this would be bearish, it could mean we could fall down to 50k before seeing 70k again, but in the mid to long term this would be uber-bullish, the cycle high in 2025 could then easily surpass $200.000 or even more.

Let's see how it plays out, interesting times ahead

Appears to be Falling Triangle at the moment...

Not a triangle, maybe a complex flat

that explosiveness is manifested in this other count
https://twitter.com/AlemzadehC/status/1767360395969245245

For minute there, I thought you knew what i had for lunch!!

I'm also surprised by the lack of attention given to this EW thread and its perspective. While I've never been a subscriber of TA, there's a certain allure to EW that I find compelling. Perhaps it's because EW delves into human emotions rather than just being about lines on a chart.

this next wave will be life changing, that's for sure!...

Keeps posting updates for us @xxxx123abcxxxx

If the count is correct,
we could be very close to the beginning of an explosive movement
wave (iii) of the [iii] of the Minor3
3-3-3
the most explosive waves are usually 3

hhhhmmmm... EW strikes again!

we could be in a wave 3 (iii),
of a wave 3 [iii]
of a wave 3 (Minor 3)
from wave 5
That could give us an explosive rise

because waves 3 are famous for being explosive

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you use elliot wave indicator in trading or not.
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and where site youre download elliot wave indicator

OIL

GOLD

DJIA 30

ETH/USD

BTC/USD

2024 Elliott Wave

• https://12345abcdewxyz.wordpress.com

Speculatively forecasting the price of Bitcoin via subjectively using the Elliott Wave principle.

Analysis is conjecture with sporadic fortnightly to monthly updates.

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