From an audio transcript of a podcast I spotted on January 30, 2025.
Quotes from Eugene F. Fama, an economics Nobel laureate.
... it will go to zero within 10 years
Cryptocurrencies are such a puzzle because they violate all the rules of a medium of exchange.
The problems in the past have been that the banks have delayed the payment mechanisms through the channels that we have available already. There’s no reason why you can’t have instantaneous settlement of all transactions. You don’t have to wait a day or two days to clear transactions. That’s just a way for the banks to make money.
If you open that up and have instantaneous trading, all you really need is a big computer in the middle. If you’ve got a computer you can trust and somebody who’s watching over the computer that has real rules that are enforceable, you’re fine. That’s it. That’s all you need. I wrote that paper 40 years ago.
You know, that kind of sounds like you are describing what "bitcoin" does with this "big computer in the middle" that one needs to "trust".
Further in their converstation one can see that they start to understand the problem a little bit here with these quotes:
Eugene F. Fama:
Why? Why can’t I have a computer that translates from one currency to another through markets?
Luigi:
Because you need to trust that computer, and either that computer is in the hands of the Americans or in the hands of the Chinese, and one of the two sides does not trust the other.
Eugene F. Fama:
That’s the problem. That’s the problem, trust. That problem isn’t the computer. The problem is trust.
... What they don't realize is that this problem of "trust" is what bitcoin is able to fix. This is the reason bitcoin is around 100k today. I am bewildered as to why these "economists" have not noticed this yet.
https://www.chicagobooth.edu/review/capitalisnt-why-this-nobel-economist-thinks-bitcoin-is-going-zero