Topic: 2nd batch of butterfly,btcfgpa,avalon &co will make NO PROFIT and loss their $ (Read 4090 times)

I made a post like this a while ago but people refused to listen to reason.  They all said I was exaggerating, jealous about not having an early pre-order, etc.  Guess what!  BFL lied about their release date and the volumes and basically everything else.  Anyone who buys one will be very lucky to make a profit in 2 years.  I'm gonna take a wild guess that based on this:

http://bitcoin.sipa.be/speed-lin-ever.png

They didn't release batch 1 yet, lol.  Haven't really been following it, as I do not care, but that is rather comical.

Was very drunk when i went off on that tangent ....lol

i suppose trying to find a reason to justify LTC

Your calculations are wrong again. 0.069 BTC = 12.28 LTC

Anyway, if that's the case, I'll give you 69 mBTC for your 12.28 LTC.  It's a higher amount, it must be better!!  Or wait, I could give you 69,000 uBTC!  That'd be just grand, wouldn't it??

 

i fully understand ur point of view re BTC becoming a valued commodity where its value is truly  realised

I get 4000 frequent flyer points for a short trip in OZ (melb -Sydney)

For rec retail...lowest common denominator user ...they are all un-educated (said with respect...sort of  )


What is that in reality about $9 US

Thats the hole that LTC should fill ...dont let the truth get in the way of a good LTC reward story ...lol

0.69 BTC or 128LTC

128 LTC is happy user days

Perception is everything in life and 128 LTC is more than .069 BTC any day of the week

then 3,000 microBTC must be even better.   I will sell you some MicroBTC.  I'll give you a whole 900,000 MicroBTC for every BTC you send me.  NINE HUNDRED THOUSAND.  WOW.  Plus you can use them anywhere that takes BTC. 

Don't use the dollar sign when speaking of LTC.  I thought you meant $35 worth of LTC, hence my confusion.  Just say "35 LTC".

Anyway, I disagree with you.  It is a small change of mindset is all.  If 0.0003 BTC can buy the same apple that 35 LTC can buy, then no one will be feeling ripped off.  And Bitcoin clients can always be changed to show mBTC or uBTC, etc.  It doesn't change the backend, the number of coins, or the protocol - it only changes the way that information is displayed to the user.  If 0.0003 BTC truly became worth a significant amount, then clients would change to display the BTC in a different manner so that we do not have to deal with small decimals all the time.

LTC are almost worthless coins right now.  Who wants 35 LTC when it is such a small amount, it cannot buy anything?  To me, THAT would feel more like a ripoff!  35 is an amount that sounds like it can buy something, and when I find out it cannot, I would feel ripped off.

Also, I am not sure where you even get 35 LTC = 0.0003 BTC.  0.0003 BTC = only 0.0534 LTC at current exchange rates.

You underesitmate Users as they do not understand .0003 of a point/BTC/$/Euro

It equates to feeling ripped off or under valued for this transaction ...is a double edged sword of BTC becoming to valued commonodity

How does it feel to earn $35 LTC or 0.0003 BTC ..as an marketing exercise i will take $35 LTC

Remember that 99.5 % of users have never heard of BTC/LTC/NMC etc so dont understand or care about the story/mechanics of the currency

So in a way the low value of LTC is to its benifit ....lol

As an outsider BTC\LTC is religious in the same vain as JAVA\.NET ...a user is totally diosconnected from this world (thank god/jesus/satan) and $35 LTC definately sounds better than 0.003 BTC..

Why do you say this?  Why is BTC no good when a user gets 0.0003 of it?  I'd rather have 0.0003 of a currency that everyone uses than 0.03 of a currency very few use, given that they are worth the same amount.  You can't count on those sorts of psychological disadvantages to apply to everyone, or even the majority.

I understand your Vendor mining angle but the old age saying off the people who sold the shovels and pans to mine made the most consistent return

Instead of gouging u once they can keep doing it by

doing an apple and wheel out v2 @ (x)G/hash and then v3 @ (y)G/Hash

Same Single but with more ...includes steak knifes ...

BFL have worked the magic and loaded all risk onto their customer base (priceless)

Dont get me wrong i have 5k spread across bASIC & BFL so I am a realist.

If I can get a 10% return p/month I will be extremely happy...(this equates to an increase in difficulty of ~x27) the dreams of putting ASIC numbers into GPU calculations are smoking crack...(no offence to those that do..lol)

Will mine LTC via GPU rigs until ASIC bullshit sorts itself out..as a new comer there is more to BTC/LTC than mining ...so many oppurtunitys it makes me giddy

Worked for banking (still do @ moment) institutions for past 6 years... BTC is so exciting as an unregulated currency with so much potential that ASIC/BFL crap is just short term problems in dealing with people that r a means to an end

Do i believe these guys are good/legit for the community ...NO...but in the big picture u are always working with people  that r (how can i put it..not my cup of tea)

The whole rewards/points systems are out there ready to be leveraged via BTC...LTC has its place as the solution for low cost coins or the change u get from BTC as a reward system...

i.e people recieve 10 LTC for buying/flying/using this service

BTC is no good when a user gets .0003 of a BTC whereas LTC is cool for LTC $35 equals ~$2.25 US which is what u would give away on an transaction via a rewards system...companys are dieing to put this liability of thier balance sheet that they engage 3rd party organisatioons to do it....the idea of tunring this arena into a profit center via various means is a totally new approach to an existing problem of moving liability from the bottom line by themselfs or a 3rd party  (even if u become this 3rd party company via mining activities that provides the currency etc..etc ..u get my drift)

Just 1 idea...mining/OTC trading are a couple of perspectives and not really focused on the potential of what an electronic currency has to offer (my personal viewpoint)

People need to look outside thier viewpoint to see the potential.... as it is huge

1 day soon the commercial world will figure BTC out and then watch out as they will swoop down to close out all of this opportunity..

I am so thankful I have come across this paradigm at the early stages of its development and also have the exact skillset to take opportunity of this bountiful harvest..its like i was made to do this (goldfever talking)

I am going to run with it.....just on mining the commercial world getting ~10% return per month on investment is inasane I know so many brokers who would cream thier pants to tell that story to thier clients

Solar is now @ 1k per kwatt with a coverage x 1.7 to cover night time so current LTC/BTC mining via GPU cost profile comes out at 13 months for 100% ROI (insane)

Anyways thats my 0.0002 santaoshis  or 2 LTC worth as a new comer looking in for the past 11 days of the BTC/LTC world

Cheers

YipYip

Maybe this is just a coincidence:

http://eligius.st/~wizkid057/newstats/userstats.php/199ogzBses5fcz3VhKPTu6iLybR3ZHvAKQ

http://www.butterflylabs.com/

Someone got a 60 GH Butterfly single SC as a christmas present? ;-)

I'm not really looking at BFL's statements.  Just the data.  BFL's revenue will drop and they will be faced with a decision to remedy.  This will likely be at least a couple of iterations of dropping prices.

My point, based on the data, is that the initial offering of ASIC's are priced at such a level that, while NRE needs to be recovered, is so high that revenues will be maximized for a short period of time.  
But this comes at the expense of ROI (in real terms) going up proportionally.  So, the end of the first revenue cycle is achieved so quickly that BFL's revenues will drop to near nothing.  Playing around with the data if unit prices dropped by 50% the mfg revenue and ROI curve would be much more linear.  BFL makes 1-2 million USD a couple of months later and customers have ROI that remain under 300 days for 3 months longer.

Of course, this all assumes a relative lack of volatility with exchange rate or other dark horse event.  Big if.


I'm actually kind of surprised you haven't come to this conclusion yourself (data).  More over I'm surprised that anyone would place complete trust with any company that exists only to be profitable.  A lot can transpire with a company that doesn't directly place them in conflict with their customers, but still is to the advantage of the company to the degree that customers could get a better deal and the company would still have a healthy bottom line.  Hopefully competition will remedy this.  


Seems like a pretty mindless defense of BFL.  Do you have data to contradict this?  Or is this a 'gut feeling' based on BFL's 'truthiness?'  (for the Cobert fans)

Yes why would a company run by a raving forum troll and a convicted con artist do anything to harm their customer base.
Scammers always look after their marks.

BFL already stated multiple times that they would not conduct any strategies that would be damaging to their existing miner base.  I would assume this also includes "pump and dump."

You guys are so full of conspiracy theories, it's just amazing.  Not every company is out to get you.  Some actually do care about their customers...

Assuming exchange rate remains steady and hashpower is not vastly oversold in a short period of time.

The example vendor, BFL, could drop retail price by 62% and still net (not including staff) over 1 million USD in a two month period.

The bitcoin ASIC business is grossly profitable at all points in their output curve for the next year and a half.  At the expense of miners and the bitcoin mining subsidy.


It's a 'pump and dump' like strategy.  Pump out, drop the price, pump out for many iterations.

Pretty graphs ...lol

In a paragraph what is your analysis of your data ??

My 2 cents.
https://bitcointalksearch.org/topic/m.1412144

I agree calcs have 5 million presale for BFL equals 250t/Hash (without bASIC)

Lot of math = ~ 6 months for ROI @ ~500t/Hash ( 500 is wIth bASIC calc of another 250 T/Hash) with NO power costs

This is really going to shake some monkeys out of the tree as the current ~25 T/Hash of equipment gets thrown out the door immediately

I dont really see anything else coming down the pipe for next 2-3 years apart from an elegant implementation of existing ASIC h/w with software that may gain a factor of 3x at most.

It will require a new R&D of a new tech which I dont think there is enough money to justify the investment 54k per day @ $13 btc is what this process is worth without transaction fees coming into play (thats another story)

Just like gold is a currency 

Bitcoins are a currency, not a something you mine out of the ground for profit.

Especially once they have a reliable system in place for their current hardware (and shipping)...and eventually when they begin working on their next generation of mining devices.

I go back and forth on how much capacity will be added to the network once all the preorders ship. I think a lot of serious miners have their money invested already, but there is probably a significant amount sitting on the sidelines waiting to see what happens. If orders don't continue to come in prices will continue to lower until they do. I would be shocked if the marginal cost of a SC Single was more than 1/4 of what they charge, probably more like 1/6. Six months after launch I wouldn't be surprised to see the Single SC selling close to the price of the current FPGA Single.

A) Those graphs don't tell how much you will be making. They are simply graphs of how long each miner expects to remain profitable according to his network projections. For all we know, the bASIC could be 15% more profitable compared to a SC Single at the beginning, but the lower power consumption keeps the Single profitable for longer.

B) You're really complaining about a 6 month 100% ROI? I think you need to get off the interwebz a little more.

Oh it's definitely true. I've created a few dozen "orders" alone just to test out various prices, order combos, and sometimes to get screenshots. For a while I debated about scripting up a simple bot that would create thousands of fake orders to help skew the data even more. The only reason I didn't is because it still wouldn't solve anything...newbies would still think that because their number said #104850 there must be that many orders.



I wrote a quick analysis two months ago on where things will probably go, and so far it seems to be on track. I'll redo it in January to see how things look given the latest preorder numbers, reward split, and any other new data.
Overall, I'm thinking 250-300TH/s over the course of 6 months. So far, that's been a pretty reasonable estimate..but it doesn't take into account declining hardware costs, energy costs, or rising USD/BTC rates.

Taking into account ALL of the current preorders, we are looking at 200-250 TH/s.  Sure, the hashrate will grow down the line, but if you're talking about a device ordered today (to be delivered after all current preorders are filled), it's not going to grow that much in 4 months.  Your payback might be extended 1-2 months is all.  It's not like there's going to be a huge rush of orders that magically appear once the preorders are delivered.  SOME more orders, sure, but once people take into account the current hashrate, the current payback period, the risk of other people ordering ASICs and increasing the hashrate, and the risk of an ASIC price decrease, I can't see break-even raising beyond 7-8 months for quite some time.

Rather than listening to rantings like the OP, I think people should be looking at this post for their information: https://bitcointalksearch.org/topic/m.1312758

The numbers have changed a little since then: bASIC has increased from 54 to 72GH/s, and the Avalon will most likely not use 400W, but the charts speak for themselves. Even at high electric costs and high network variables, most ASICs will still be profitable for a year to a year and a half. At low electric costs and smaller growth, there's the potential for 3 years of profitability. Now 3 years is quite a ways away, and a lot can change in that time.

not sure if trolling...

you could cancel your preorder right now and double your money. the price of bitcoin at the time you placed the order has no relevance to what your current investment is.

...it remains to be seen if BTC will break the $14 wall. a lot of your calculations are made in $USD, but many of us bought with lower value BTC, either mined, or like me, bought at about $5 USD. So initial investment is 1/2 of what you are thinking.

I think you should do more research.
Each BFL chip does 7.5GH/s. The 60GH/s SC Single has 8 chips. 20K chips is thus about 150TH/s. BFL's also said that a preorder placed today will probably ship Feb or March. Avalon's first batch is 300 units at 66GH/s (20TH/s), and the second batch isn't expected until mid-late February. bASIC's first batch is about 900 units (up to a max of maybe 1000) at 72GH/s each. Say 72TH/s. Their second batch is supposed to be end of February. ASICminer should add 12TH/s or so in their first batch. Reclaimer has been very quiet lately. I don't expect them to add anything to the network any time soon, same goes for Goliath.
Add that all up, and you're looking at maybe 250TH/s by the end of February.

Why not take on a bet of non-significant size?  I think you have a winner here.


I don't think we will hit 500 TH/s in 60 days after ASIC launch either.   Also I have run calculations that I am using to see if I will actually buy an ASIC 2nd batch. 

That's at least 5 times the chips they will need to fill all current preorders.

https://forums.butterflylabs.com/showwiki.php?title=FAQ:Get+Rich+Quick+Not+so+fast&viewfull=1&page=2&do=comments#post8468
https://forums.butterflylabs.com/showwiki.php?title=FAQ:Get+Rich+Quick+Not+so+fast&viewfull=1&page=2&do=comments#post8470

BFL in the past has said that 20k chips would be enough for all the preorders and then some, and the number of preorders hasn't grown that much since then.
I highly doubt BFL has orders for 100k chips, they're just getting all the chips they expect for the foreseeable future ordered and onhand so that if sales do go very well they don't have to worry about another couple month delay.
I would expect that at this time next year we could be looking at a petahash/s network, but I think 500TH/s two months after the first unit hits is probably high. There will be teething issues related to building and shipping them that will take time to work out as well. Keep in mind (just looking at BFL) 500TH/s is equivalent to 150 Minirigs and 4500 Singles. That's 2.5 Minirigs a day and 75 Singles to get them out in 2 months.

Also, why do you think $10/BTC is optimistic?

95% of those order numbers are not orders.  It'll generate an order number as soon as a person clicks to buy on BFL's website, but they can choose whether or not to pay for it.  And I can guarantee that some people purposefully do that to increase the order number and discourage others from ordering.

If you think 500 TH/s is a low estimate, I will gladly take you up on a bet of significant size.  There's no way in hell we're reaching 500 TH/s within 2 months.

+ "goliath" hash speed https://bitcointalksearch.org/topic/goliath-130386.

EDIT: umm ya 500 Th in two months seems a little high, maybe like 6 months.

Here is my point:


Admitting 500Th will be reach in 2 month (and it's a low estimation)

You'll broadly win 150$/month for a 60gh/s machine (admitting 1btc = 10$ <= I think it's optimistic).

Except that mining devices cost will probably go down after the 2nd pre-order release so the Hrate will grow again.

Chance to make profit ? close to zero. At the best you'll got your money back but don't expect profit.


To have a good image= > 500Th in 2 month means broadly 10 000 000$ investment in new devices => 10 000 people ready to spend 1000$ each (I know it's not the good repartition but expecting this level of investment don't seems that hardcore to me..)



To be clear, I'm not trolling here, just posing some hypothesis, just want to create the debate, please share your analysis of the situation!