Topic: 4 hypotheses based on BTC history:01.10.2010-31.12.2013 BTC increased 10000 fold (Read 61 times)

Thank you, it is extremely interesting information! I read it thoroughly and make some calculations.

mining with paper
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=y3dqhixzGVo

in those days you solo mined a block which by having the winning solution you kept the whole block reward of 50btc, not 1 sat
it was simply 50btc or nothing win or lose

these days because the math number is now so complex hundreds of thousands of devices all try to find the solution and send it to the pool manager whom gets paid on his key, and he then divides the reward up by those who participated, which means although the block reward is now 3.125btc because hundreds of thousands of devices tried to find the result, everyone gets a share of that reward even though only one of the pool found the solution and gave it to the pool manager, the pool manager shares reward with everyone

as for if solo mining by paper the timeline.. double sha=17minsx2=34mins per try
initial result needed 8 leading zeros of hex '0' =16⁸ =4294967296 tries
which translates to ~1.7m days=4630years for one man to try and get lucky within

Yes its a mathematical problem, and yes you can use paper and pencil to do the calculation. Here is a link to someone who did it and with more info if you want to have read through it. You can see he estimated 0.67 hash a day so very very very very slow compared to ASIC's today but it is doable.

https://www.righto.com/2014/09/mining-bitcoin-with-pencil-and-paper.html

 

Thank you for very interesting information about BTC mining in its first years ! As I understand, Bitcoin is the result of some kind of mathematical calculation ?
If so is it possible to reach to the result of this calculation without computer - just by paper and pencil ?
How much time would it take to get 1 satoshi in 2009 (when the calculation was not so difficult as it is nowadays) without computer ? One day ? One year ?

2) its related to mining costs... which is also related to halving+related to hardware cost+related to networkhashrate increase of competing users

3)the 2010-2013 period seen a change from solomining CPU->GPU on one pc to poolmining gpu RIGS to then have asic mining in 2013.. so that explains the big bump of change of technologies(hardware) over the time causing hashrate jumps and thus hardware cost jumps thus minimum costs jump thus minimum people woud sell for thus minimum support for market price.. along with the halvings too

if you looked at the generational mining hardware of a period spreading the hardware cost over a reasonable ROI, calculated the mining cost where electricity has a whole planet variance of $0.04/kwh-$0.50/kwh to work out a value:premium range of mining cost per period.. the market price always sat within the value:premium window

EG
CPU=1megahash
GPU=100-600megahash
ASIC2013=60gigahash
60,000x change 2010-2013
but more so the GPU-asic of upto 600x which if you then look at the halving and also the competing miners all add up to your 10,000x fold in market

mining efficiency also countered mining cost so although hashrate jumped the cost per hash dropped
the hardware costs per asic evolution(2013-2017) was calming down. they are not leaping up in hashrate as much as the past(60gh-9th=150x)
the hardware costs per asic evolution(2017-2024) was calming down further. they are not leaping up in hashrate as much as the past(14th-300x=20x)
so although 150x and 20x the efficiency per cost meant the price didnt need to jump 150x 20x

so in summary, it all related. if you know enough datapoints

Hi friends !

I organized some data about Bitcoin price history and found that there seems to be six very different periods of BTC price (relative) stability:

! 03.01.2009-30.06.2010 when the BTC price orbits around 0.0025 USD
II 07.07.2010-30.09.2010   0.05 USD
III 01.07.2011-31.12.2012   5 USD
IV 01.01.2014-31.03.2017  500 USD
V 01.01.2018-30.09.2020  5000 USD
VI 01.02.2021-...             30000 USD

At the basis of these data I provide four hypotheses that are following:
1)These BTC price periods (their average BTC price levels) were so different from each other  that BTC accumulation across the periods was not meaningful (BTC accumulation is meaningful only INSIDE one period).
For example. If you put 10 000 USD in Bitcoins in the third period (01.07.2011-31.12.2012) and got about 2000 BTC , and then added another 10 000 USD in the fourth period (01.01.2014-31.03.2017) getting about 20 BTC, and then added another 10 000 USD to get 2 BTC during the fifth period 01.01.2018-30.09.2020... - you can not change your initial BTC sum remarkably in later investment periods.

2)The BTC price rise is NOT connected with halving cycles. The 2013 and 2017 very similar price dynamics is rather exception than rule.

3)The more than 10 000 fold BTC price increases during the 39 months 01.10.2010-31.12.2013 is unprecedented, neither before nor after that time there have been something comparable with this. In fact BTC price increased during these 39 months more than during all remaining 154 months! It is not easy to find assets all over the world that have increased more in price in such a short time period. Before that and after that BTC have been rather usual asset and many cryptocurrencies and other assets have increased remarkably more than Bitcoin during the next 11 years (2014-2025).

4)These unprecedently dynamic 39 months were best time for HODL strategy as well. Paradoxically the term HODL emerged just at the end (December 2013) of its most golden period.