Topic: 4 Key Similarities to Previous Bull Market Corrections (Read 431 times)

Some people believes in cycle but I dint believe, because there are so many things that could affect the value of bitcoin at a time such as government policy and others, imagine that government policy does not favor cryptocurrency in the past, and suddenly, the government just declared support for cryptocurrency, do we think that we can compare the growth that bitcoin will have when government supports it to when they did not support it, so if we had tied the activities of bitcoin to circle, how would these scenario that I give play out.

We just need to believe that bitcoin will have price growth, but not all these analysis that people usually do that I personal feel does not work much. Is it not someone that just claims that bitcoin will get to $16k in October? But, the month is over already and we did not see it.

Divergence on the daily chart is something to pay attention to. If price goes up but RSI goes sideways or doesn't reach the same RSI as several days ago, price will probably go down soon.

That happened from december 7 to 17 at the ATH in 2017.

The monthly RSI was above 70 from December 2016 to February 2018. So the market was extremely overbought at $3,000 but that was nowhere near the top.

How do you decide where to sell?

Yeah, you were right and i agree with you that the coincidence happens very similar to the previous bull run will going to repeat in the present. They may look like similar but that doesn't mean that the results will be the same. Bitcoin is very volatile to think it that way, you may see some bull run today but on the next day you will see a sudden dump without a prior notice.

The reality is we can go back and find anything resembling the two time periods all the time. Look at yesterday and then look back on 10 years of bitcoin and I am sure there was a day that was exactly the same, look at tomorrow and it will be same like some previous day as well, today is just another day that was exactly like some other date. Basically, you can always find the resembles, the trouble is just because a week ago looked familiar for 7 days straight to some other 7 days straight doesn't mean the 8th days will be the same as well.

You can find days that look similar but you can't make predictions based on that which creates the whole issue. Hopefully we will one day reach to a level of price in bitcoin that we won't need to guess what it will be eventually.

I wouldn't necessarily just focus on the analysis here on this forum because everyone is just guessing.... some guesses are more educated than the others, but what matters is that you follow your own plan and stick to it.

I personally only pay attention to the analysis here to see if I forgot about certain key areas or indicators that are relevant in the here and now. In other words, just to improve my own analysis where possible.

What I find even more important is to actually sell a portion of my coins whenever the market seems extremely overbought, which is something I didn't do in 2017 but did do so this year. I can look forward buying lower without feeling bad.

Many are very bothered about the movement right now and just like me I am certain that I am caught because of the bull trap but because of certain speculation I think I will not miss out on what is the real increase and not, well getting active in the forum will surely help.


I am now more patient than ever because last All-time high I am not able to savor all of its glory because my hands are shaky that time, but I think with the timing and speculation by much great analysis in this forum I think we can handle some bull trap, and some dump that is many people are not aware of sometimes. 

The people who have not sold the coins when the market reached their all time high last time might not sell even if the market reaches another all time high valuation, some will book their profits and wait for the market to go down and pick them once again and some does not even bother about the market valuation as they are in for the long haul. The alt recover is doubtful as i do not see any huge rally coming up for any of the coins, privacy coins have a hurdle because of regulation and with Litecoin planning to become another privacy coin who knows what the future holds for these coins in terms of legal acceptance in regulated markets.

with your patience I'm sure you will enjoy the results later, indeed many people have not sold their bitcoin at ATH in 2017,
and are waiting for a new ATH, but from that experience makes us understand how to trade in crypto currencies,
obviously! very different from the rest, hopefully this year bitcoin and altcoin will recover

Yes we are so much bothered about the bearish market that even if there is a price increase we think that it's a bull trap and whenever there is a small dump we think it's correction time,  as a result we might miss out on bull run if we don't identify the thin like between bull trap and bull run and fluctuations and correction. Even I will be more active from now onwards to avoid missing out on bullish market.

I might be missing out the whole time bitcoin is in the bullish state, maybe because of the correction many had thought that they are still in the midst of a bear market, I might change the way I think about this movement that history is repeating itself at least not the movement right now, but thanks for correcting it I might just wait for certain increase of price but I will still keep the hold until the major all-time high again I will surely never missed out this time thanks for the info.

Physical delivery does add a new element to spot market price discovery though. It means there is real arbitrage pressure between Bakkt and spot prices.

Let's say institutions are extra bullish on BTC. They start buying Bakkt contracts at high volumes, creating a premium well above spot market rates. This should drive the spot markets upwards because spot sellers will take their supply to Bakkt to sell for higher prices.

That's why it's all about the volume. If Bakkt is churning out huge volumes in a bull market and a premium exists, we can be fairly sure that institutions are driving the market up.

Even if it did have the volume, so what? I still think price and sentiment is what will affect BAKKT volume, not the other way round -- and sure, sentiment drives people to buy, trading volumes drive sentiment even higher, and that cycle self perpetuates until the next stage of emotions kicks in when people start to take profit.

It's always been psychological, and always will be =)

But we got to stop kidding ourselves that the market moves because of Bakkt and Libra. People will get Bitcoin when they want, they won't wait for a tool to make it easier for them.

To follow up on this analysis, the 50 Week MA (purple) had a bullish crossover with the 100 Week MA (silver) in May of 2016 (circled right), similar to what is likely to happen soon too (circled left) in 4-5 weeks by the current forecast, as long as the price holds above the $7500 level which doesn't seem unlikely right now.




The irony is while breaking below the 100 Week MA at $7750 "looked" incredibly bearish at the time, it failed to confirm by closing a candle below it, which also happened in 2016 too, in the second week of 2016 if you looked twice.

You found out the main reason why there is not many similarities. And you basically cant compare them. In 2017 we are close to end of Bitcoin cycle, in 2019 we are in second phase, from bottom up. Compare 2015 recovery with 2019 recovery. That is something to compare with. This time it started way faster.

Obviously, the Bakkt hype has died down already. Remember that we all have been waiting for this for a long time and people get tired.

Exactly, it's more of a psychological aspect, specially when it go live and Bakkt's trading volume is kinda disappointed for many. But make no mistakes about it, people might joined the hype again when bitcoin price started to hit five digits again, remember when we have a jump of 20%-$30%? Bakkt volumes hits a all-time-high, so there might be correlation after all.

I still think BAKKT doesn't have that type of volume to affect bitcoin price, sure it is a bit of difference and sure there could be some small ones but we are talking about bitcoin falling from 10k to under 8k and then above 9k, bakkt doesn't have that kind of volume to affect the price that much.

Could it be psychological? Could it be because people thought Bakkt would be huge and it wasn't when it first started and then became bigger so all of these were reflected by not only Bakkt itself but also people who doesn't use Bakkt at all but just watch it from afar and react accordingly? Sure, it is a possibility but are we really going to attribute these movements to Bakkt all thanks to some possibility? Some whale buying a ton and selling a ton has the same possibility.

We all agree that Bakkts influence still continues bit it wouldn't bring any explosive increase in BTC for now. Plus, there could still be a lot of potential candidates that could push BTC ahead depending om how they perform.
I believe im seeing the signs of the same bullish run BTC had in the past halvings and I'm not gonna just sit and let that happen under my nose. I believe it as such and well, hope that it would happen like that after all. Dont we all?

you blinked and you missed it!
bitcoin has been in a bull run for nearly the entire 2019. it is just that people expected bitcoin's bull run to be the exact same thing as the last thing they remember (end of 2017) so they are missing it. otherwise price is already up 220% from the beginning of the year and aside from the handful of corrections that we had, the price has been going up ever since it reached the bottom at $3100.

and that is the way all bull runs work, there are rises then corrections. and then rise again. what we had in 2017 was the end of the bull run which finished with a bubble. it will repeat again by the end of this bull run but until then we will continue having this type of rise which people miss out on!!!

If there are similarities I don't really bother in any resistance at all, If Bitcoin gonna be in a bull run it will surely go beyond our expectations, and if you are seeing a major impact regarding the upcoming halving I think that is a good sign to say that we are in the midst of another all-time high, If the parabolic movement would trace its way back again then the bull market of 2016-2017 can be a grasp.

The is the main issue, if you begin to try to find signs about why something happened then you are bound to find them but that doesn't necessarily indicates that those factors were responsible for the variation of the price of bitcoin, people want to predict the markets instead of accepting the reality that no one can, and it is easy to see why no one can predict them. There are millions of factors that affect the price each day and it is impossible for any single person to find out and measure those factors and come up with a strategy to take advantage of them.

It is better to just watch the market and try not to make assumptions about why the market it's moving the way is moving.

Not only you but every one who have been or seen the previous halving thinks that this is the only catalyst that can bring the price to its all-time-high. Perhaps the Bakkt price is already in, that's why in the recent weeks we haven't seen any good price movement to say that indeed it has impacted the price positively.

But we will have to see what comes after September 26. We just have like a week from now and see if this anticipated event could trigger another price boost.

Of course, you can draw similarities here, we can even conclude that the first halving and the subsequent numbers of day prior to the next ATH, 5xx days on the first halving and then 1xxx days on the second halving. So does it mean that we are going to see 2xxx days before the new ATH after the next block halving? It could be, but it's hard to say that it will happen that way because of so many factors specially how volatile bitcoin is.

See, one thing is for sure. That is in future bitcoin price will become big way more than 10k USD what it is now. This is due the deflationary supply of the currency. With passage of time the demand for bitcoin will increase but the supply will stop at a fixed time and the total number of bitcoin would be fixed. The rise of price in 2017 Q4 was due to the BCH fork making people accumulate BTC combined with the Bitfinex Tether pump to sell their bitcoins. Very less chances of such events repeating now. So sudden spike of huge price rise wont happen.

Gradual growth is organic and shows actual acceptance. Whether it is due to some new development or countries allowing crypto it will definitely boost the price.

Similarities can be drawn, and I think a lot of people are doing that already, some to the point of clutching at straws, if you ask me.

But I wonder about this particular period in the global economy, if that's a main difference to this coincidence of a bull market correction.

I mean, it's never been particularly healthy for any economy, national regional or global, not since 2009, but with actual steps taken in quantitative easing this year alone from US central banks and ECB, I daresay this is a major difference compared to the past corrections.

Could this be why we're not seeing stronger corrections? Bitcoin was barely at 15% of ATH, when it's been below 10% in the past corrections.

exactly same thoughts about the price I don't think so it will make any effects on price of cryptocurrencies its totally depends on market condition.

The really major event for me is the block halving for sure.
Try to compare the chart of Bitcoin for every halving in the previous.
You can see huge movement of the price like for months before of the day of block halving.
This BAKKT event for me is already done in terms of price action on BTC, you think we can see a huge price movement on the day of BAKKT will start their trading?

There should be this assurance by now that no one can claim to know where Bitcoin price is headed to. The best we can do is mere speculation because nothing is certain here. There is this forecast that Bitcoin will hit $16,000 by October but I am taking that with a pinch of salt.

BAKKT was not involved in the year 2017 when Bitcoin attain almost $20000 per BTC, so this fundamental News might not surge the price as people are speculating. But lets keep and watch what will happen in the next few days.

well the price broke the $9800



unfortunately the price failed to break the $10800 but it didn't fall much

Bitcoin Price Rejected at $10.8K as Crypto Market Braces for Bakkt

all attention is focused on the release of BAKKT, I hope this time does not disappoint us

While Bakkt clients will be able to deposit their funds into the Bakkt Warehouse next week on Sept. 6, Bitcoin price is trending downwards after falling below $10,000 in the run-up to the event.

So is this already priced in or the market cycles are just repeating themselves? Let’s take a look at some key similarities to previous bull market cycles.

Similarities I & II: 100-week MA & 21-week EMA providing support

A common discussion lately on Crypto Twitter suggests that there’s a confluence between the so-called Bitcoin (BTC) price “bubble” top of 2017 and the last top at the end of July at $13,935. In a sense, parabolic movements tend to repeat the same stages over and over again. However, there are some substantial differences between them.

The top of 2017 came at the end of a market cycle, which essentially started with the confirmation of the 100-week Moving Average (MA) and 21-week Exponential Moving Average (EMA) during January 2016.

However, the top of July 2019 was essentially the first peak above the 100-week MA and did not face the euphoria comparable to the period in December 2017. So, are they comparable?

Basically, during the whole bull market of 2016–2017 there were several parabolic movements ending in a retracement.

The start of this was the period during Q4 2015 and the beginning of January 2016 through which Bitcoin price ended the bear market with a parabolic move and found support at the 100-week MA and 21-week EMA.

After this confirmation the market has seen several corrections of 30-40%, which are quite healthy for an upwards trending market.

With that in mind, it makes more sense to compare the previous parabolic movement towards the first parabolic movement coming out of the bear market in 2015, as that was the kickstart of a new cycle.

Relying on the chart, this could mean that Bitcoin price could face another test of the 100-week MA or the 21-week EMA to confirm the bullish perspective and face a period of accumulation prior to the halving event.

The past halving events on Litecoin and Bitcoin saw upwards price movements a few months prior to the actual event. If history repeats itself, we could see some upwards movements in Q1 of 2020.

Similarity III: 200-day Moving Average support

Another indicator of a bullish market is the support of the 200-day MA. During the previous cycle, Bitcoin always found support on the 200-day MA and, during the later phases, also on the 100 MA, which is currently moving around $7,500.

Meanwhile, the latest BTC price drop below $10K means it just lost the 100 MA, which is comparable to the start of the last cycle in January 2016.

Similarity IV: Altcoins getting crushed

The last few months haven’t been good to altcoins. While Bitcoin price is moving upwards and continues to range, altcoin investors are punished more and more by the market.

This leads to the fear of buying altcoins and we are getting stuck in a vicious cycle. However, we have been here before.

Back in 2015 — while Bitcoin was moving from $196 to $505 — altcoins didn’t follow suit. Instead, they began to move when Bitcoin price bottomed out of its first parabolic run on January 15, 2016 (the touch of the 100-week MA and 21-week MA confirming the bottom).

If we take a look at an altcoin market cap dominance chart, it’s easy to see that it has retraced down to the lowest level in two years, while the RSI is showing a level of 22. This means that altcoins were being sold heavily during the past period.

Notably, a potential support level and a trendline are coming into play. Comparable to the beginning of 2016, in which the dominance of altcoins fell from 16% to 8% — this occurred prior to big upwards movements. For example, Ether (ETH) went up by 1700% in the months after, Vertcoin went up by 800%, etc.

Comparing these two analyses with the technical point of view of the market, it is to be expected that Bitcoin needs a natural period of accumulation, through which altcoins will eventually catch up and move alongside with BTC/USD.

To date, altcoins have been following Bitcoin (e.g. Bitcoin price all-time high in December 2017, altcoin all-time high in January/February 2018).

In other words, this leads me to believe that altcoins will start to move as soon as Bitcoin is ranging/bottomed out from this parabolic move.

Total market cap excluding BTC

The total market capitalization (excluding Bitcoin) has shown a move upwards to the $125 billion area of resistance, which acted as a support during 2018 and retraced down since then.

According to the chart, it’s currently testing an important level. If the market is able to find support here (at $62–66 billion), the old resistance of November/December 2018 will act as a support.

This will lead towards a new higher low, and potentially the disbelief phase and a new cycle. The current market capitalization of altcoins is $66 billion, which is equal to the market capitalization of altcoins in March 2019 when the price of Bitcoin was $4,000. Simply put, this is the ultimate carnage for altcoin holders.

What scenarios are there?

In a bullish scenario, the price has to break the $9,800 level (old support before the dropdown) and reclaim that as support. If Bitcoin is able to do so, then we’re aiming at $10,800 again (trendline and horizontal resistance zone).

Bearish scenario

If Bitcoin won’t be able to break the $9,800 level again and turns it into resistance (or the $9,650 zone), the lower support levels at $8,900 and the possible area around $8,500 are likely to be tested, given the prior analysis of the 100-week MA ranging around $8,500 and the CME futures gap at $8,500.

(from: https://cointelegraph.com/news/bitcoin-price-4-key-similarities-to-previous-bull-market-corrections )