Topic: 5 november rally and US Marshalls sale. (Read 906 times)

There seems to be this ongoing naivety that only native Chinese can have accounts on the Chinese exchanges.  Just like how Americans naïvely believe that the U.S. stock market only has American "investors" (and thus not fully controlled by the Russian mafia).

People need to wake up.

And for the record, NO, I don't believe that the run up to Nov 5th was a coincidence.  All buying pressure died the day before the auction when a price range was reached, that just so happen to be in the same ballpark as the last auction.

I would be happy if they would sell some bitcoins more often.

it's definitely weird. after reaching the $500 mark everything came down like there was no tomorrow. maybe that they have something to do with it, or maybe not. we most likely won't find the answer.

It is probably not purely random coincidence. But it may be a complicated interaction of different factors. Here are some possible theories:

1) A group of bidders agreeing among themselves to bid low and use their money to raise the market price, so that they can dump on the market afterwards. What is the risk? Someone can outbid your collective (remember though there are a lot of coins), but in that case you would have bought some bitcoins from the market and nothing from the auction... Not so bad if you can accept that risk.

2) In fact the prospect of the auction may be what was keeping the price low in the first place. When people realized that it will happen, and there are serious bidders (maybe some big people with internal knowledge knew already who bid what approximately), they decided to buy at the current (low) price, which won't remain low for long.

3) Maybe the auction (which is a one time opportunity in the end) motivated some people. To get loans, find some investors etc. to grab those cheap coins. But, once you realize that you are probably outbid in the auction, you may go to the exchanges to buy what you can. In fact other people understanding this fact may raise the price as well.

Think about it. There were 11 bidders. If you are guessing that these were partial bids which total to about 4-5 times the total amount around 300, you have maybe 4x44000x300 dollars at the hands of people who want to buy bitcoins. If they fail the bid some of them may very well turn to exchanges...

I may think of other factors, coupled with other things, such as those happening in China may somehow explain the mystery. However, the explanation that it is the Marshalls who pumped the price to sell their coins at a better premium is pretty ridiculous. Where do they get the money? Is it an official order? Who signs the order to buy? The marshalls have accounts in the oversees exchanges?

This. Beside that, it was China who was leading and pumping with insane volumes every day. Other exchanges were following Huobi and OKCoin as sheeps. I also think it's purely coincidence.

i agree that the timing is really strange. on the other hand a few million bucks seem just not enough to get the usms into manipulating such a market. there is a story behind it, i am sure. but it is not the usms trying to make a buck.

this is only coincidence
but i happen in past that on same date some spike occur
this can be it now or it can not be

Yes, but a peak exactly the day of the Marshall sales ?

It is only our assumption. No one knows the exact reasons for this rally but blames the Chinese market who was involving at this spike due to the over 70% of trading volume dominated at CNY.

There can be coincidences in life, but this one is too big, no ?

How come that the bitcoin price, after a large period of stability, starts rising around the day of announcement of the auction, peaks exactly at the day of bidding, and drops afterwards ?  Who's the winner here ?  USMS, no ?  But in order for this price rise to be done since beginning of October, a steady manipulation is needed.   The idea of a sale cannot induce the market in increasing the price: indeed, the sale will increase offer.  If there were any anticipated effect of "greater visibility to bitcoin" or the like, there's no reason why it would crash after the sale - on the contrary.
The bidders themselves have not the slightest interest to have a high bitcoin price exactly on the day of bidding.
This only makes sense if we believe that part of the US government is manipulating bitcoin itself.

Normally I'm not in such "conspiracy stuff" but this is too overtly obvious.  Unless we have to go to a higher-order interpretation, and think of who wants us to think that the US governement is manipulating bitcoin.  Banks, maybe ?