Topic: 5 year inflation calculation with the Constantinople issuance reduction to 2 ETH (Read 322 times)

Whoa. $1500 for 6x RX 470s, even if they are 8GB, is NOT cheap at all. Old GPUs like the 470 are now being sold at bargain prices of around $100-$120 where I am right now. If you really want to risk losing all your money then I suggest you do more research and find cheaper rigs.

Wrt to ASIC resistance, it's not gonna happen because the ETH devs have already decided.

if you think you will rise. you can buy more eth. mining uncertain.

6x RX470 8GB with 1500$ this means a cheap RIG. Without the reduction to 2ETH/block this should make around 4.5 ETH/year that sounds good for me but with this changes....duno.

Why they don't do it ASIC resistant?

. Yes they got the farms but u can have your cut with 1 gpu with 30 MH/s , also devs don’t have the farms you know ? Else there will be minimum of like 20 or more ethers to stake and earn some rewards . So the decentralisation costs at least 5-10k while you can have 1-2-3 gpus for 600 Euro right now . The difference is huge

Cheap Rigs? really cheap? I dont think so.
When I started to mine, ROI was 4-5 months.
Now 20+ months.
So what you understand with cheap?

And the rich have the bigger farms. Not sure this logic is right.

I don’t know why people don’t discuss that POS doesn’t mean that no new coins will be made, pos also has blocks but awards people that hold coins in their wallet - actually only richest people (with most coins ) so basically eth becoming pos means that only rich get any new created coins and they get them at high prices (considering eth costs like 1k at 2020 for example ). Every pos is pure shit and let’s founders and people that invest richer . That’s why only POW can be called decentralised , because everyone can buy a gear that will cost 1-2-3 k but earn you ethers , I suspect that buying ethers for 1-2-3k won’t make ever any new ethers because they won’t be enough for staking ...

Short story question: Is it good to invest in ETH or BTC?
Is it ok to buy cheap RIGS now when everyone is selling?

5 year inflation calculation with the Constantinople issuance reduction to 2 ETH / block

The Constantinople hard fork is scheduled to happen sometime before Devcon 4. Let's say it happens just before, on October 30th. There will then be roughly 102,500,000 ETH in existence at the current mining rate. After that the issuance will be 2 ETH per 5760 blocks mined per day = 2 * 5760 * 365 = 4,204,800 ETH per year. Additionally there will be 613,901 ETH per year created in uncle rewards.

    October 30th 2018 = 102,500,000 ETH

    October 30th 2019 = 107,318,701 ETH

    October 30th 2020 = 112,137,402 ETH

Currently I believe the most realistic date for the switch to PoS would be sometime in 2020. For this calculation I am using October 2020 as a reasonable estimate. For ETH issuance after PoS, currently the expected value is 500k of ETH per year.

    October 30th 2021 = 112,637,402 ETH

    October 30th 2022 = 113,137,402 ETH

    October 30th 2023 = 113,637,402 ETH

So in total over the next 5 years that would make for average ETH inflation of 2.084% per year.

Now compare that to bitcoin, with supply increasing from 17,348,950 on October 30th 2018 to 19,504,475 on October 30th 2023 (estimated block number 802429) for an average BTC inflation of 2.370% per year over the next 5 years. (This includes the 2020 halvening.)

Conclusion: assuming PoS doesn't fail completely, ether inflation rate will be around 10% lower than bitcoin over the next 5 years.